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71.
72.
本文从日本沿岸选取了28个验潮站及联测的GPS站,利用奇异谱分析(Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA)和SSA+自回归滑动平均(Auto Regression Moving Average,ARMA)方法预测了2014—2018年的近海海平面变化和地壳垂直变化.并用同时段的验潮及GPS的实际测量值进行验证,结果显示,SSA+ARMA预测的相对海平面精度为0.0357~0.0607 m,地壳垂直运动的精度为0.0049~0.0077 m,绝对海平面的精度为0.0433~0.0683 m,且三者SSA+ARMA的预测结果均优于只用SSA预测的结果.在此基础上本文利用SSA+ARMA预测了日本沿岸2019—2023年的近海绝对海平面变化,结果显示,2019—2023年的平均海面高较往年(2014—2018)升高0.0353 m,2003—2023年绝对海平面的变化率为0.0039 m·a-1,预测结果较为理想. 相似文献
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74.
ABSTRACT The reliable and robust monitoring of air temperature distribution is essential for urban thermal environmental analysis. In this study, a stacking ensemble model consisting of multi-linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF) optimized by the SVR is proposed to interpolate the daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) during summertime in a mega urban area. A total of 10 geographic variables, including the clear-sky averaged land surface temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index, were used as input variables. The stacking model was compared to Cokriging, three individual data-driven methods, and a simple average ensemble model, all through leave-one-station-out cross validation. The stacking model showed the best performance by improving the generalizability of the individual models and mitigating the sensitivity to the extreme daily Tmax. This study demonstrates that the stacking ensemble method can improve the accuracy of spatial interpolation of environmental variables in various research fields. 相似文献
75.
This paper is concerned with the analysis of the linear modely(n)=X(n)+S(n)+(n) for the data sequencey(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) whereX={x
IJ} is a knownJ × M matrix of full rankM. Here, the(n) are unknown vectors, which we wish to estimate for eachn; S(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) is a periodic component (which we wish to estimate or remove) superimposed on the linear structureX(n); and(n) is an error vector which is specified as having zero expectation (with possible further properties). Such models commonly occur in geophysical data analysis.Modified from Technical Report No. 33, Computer Centre, The Australian National University. 相似文献
76.
Numerical weather prediction models are increasingly employed for providing meteorological data for urban air quality applications.
Model resolution, physiographic parameters and surface-layer parameterisations need to be adapted to the requirements of the
urban boundary layer. The Lokalmodell of the German Weather Service was triple-nested down to a horizontal grid resolution
of 1.1 km, urbanised physiographic parameters were implemented, and an additional anthropogenic heat source was introduced.
Results of a sensitivity study for a spring dust episode in Helsinki show a clear urbanisation effect of these measures on
temperature, humidity and the partitioning of surface fluxes, leading to an increased Bowen ratio and heat storage and an
urban heat island effect. 相似文献
77.
This paper is devoted to the testing experiment of a postprocessing tool aimed at the objective analysis of propagating gust fronts in a given convective environment. The tool is being developed to be applicable in the operational mode by utilizing NWP model outputs. The experiment was carried out on two summer convective cases which occurred in the Czech Republic. The cases were numerically simulated by the limited area NWP model LM COSMO with the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. They represent different types of convective systems, both accompanied by objectively identifiable gust fronts and causing heavy precipitation. The event from July 2000 was characterised by the development of isolated thunderstorms. The other event from July 1998 was a long-lasting and organised convective system — a squall line. The hypothesis was that the developed postprocessing tool is capable to evaluate the role which downdraft outflows played in the decay and initiation of convective cells by interaction with convective environment and thus in prolongation of convection lifetime.The procedures of the Objective Analysis of Gust Fronts (OAGF) were applied to the thermodynamic outputs of the LM COSMO. The aim was to determine the position of gust fronts within the domain and to assess their speed of movement and the potential to initiate convection according to the properties of ambient vertical shear and stability as well as humidity conditions ahead of the respective downdraft outflows. In addition, the Radar Simulation Model (RSM) was employed to monitor the simulated convective systems in arbitrary PPI and RHI scans and to verify qualitatively the LM COSMO precipitation forecasts.The case studies has confirmed the applicability of the LM COSMO–OAGF chain and RSM, which may represent the potential for improving the operational nowcasting of hazardous convection phenomena. In both simulations, the objective gust fronts moved on into the vertical shear-favourable environment for triggering new convection. In addition to the dynamical organisation, there were also favourable stability and humidity conditions in the area of forced upward motions in the simulation of the event from July 2000. 相似文献
78.
ZHANG Yi YAN Li 《地球空间信息科学学报》2007,10(4):276-281
A scheme for an automatic road surface modeling from a noisy point cloud is presented. The normal vectors of the point cloud are estimated by distance-weighted fitting of local plane. Then, an automati... 相似文献
79.
80.
Onkari Prasad Sant Prasad Kanti Prasad R. R. Kelkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1998,107(1):5-18
Moisture profiles have been estimated over the region bounded by the latitudes 40°N and 40°S and longitudes 30°E to 130°E
using INSAT digital infra red cloud imagery data. The representativeness of these profiles in representing moisture field
associated with the development and movement of synoptic scale systems during the period September 15th, 1996 to March 31st,
1997 has been examined. It has been shown that the changes in the moisture field associated with the withdrawal of the southwest
and northeast monsoons from the Indian sub-continent, development and movement of synoptic scale sytems (depressions, tropical
cyclones and waves in easterlies) and equatorial troughs in the Indian Ocean could be clearly seen in humidity profiles. The
initial development of tropical systems is first seen in the humidity field in the upper troposphere. These profiles could
be used in monitoring the initial development and subsequent movement of tropical systems. Further the data on moisture distribution
from the data gap regions of the Indian Ocean could be used as an additional source of moisture in numerical analysis and
prognosis. 相似文献