和田河夏季流量对区域0℃层高度变化的响应

利用和田市气象站的0℃层高度,和田河上游乌鲁瓦提和同古孜洛克水文站的实测流量资料,以及NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa月平均温度资料,分析了和田河夏季流量的变化、同期流域内0℃层高度情况以及500 hPa温度的特征。结果显示：1961-2004年,和田河夏季流量、和田站0℃层高度均呈不显著的线性下降趋势,在1979年分别出现了由丰到枯、由高到低的突变。和田河夏季流量典型偏丰、偏枯年同期500 hPa温度距平场有显著差异。在年代际和年际尺度上,和田河夏季流量对流域内0℃层高度变化都有明显的响应。     

Temporally weighted average curve number method for daily runoff simulation

The modified Soil Conservation Service curve number (CN) method is widely used in long‐term continuous models to predict daily surface runoff. However, it has been shown that this method gives poor results in reproducing peak flows in high rainfall periods. This is because there is an inaccuracy stemming from the model algorithm as it adjusts the daily runoff curve number as a function of soil moisture content at the end of the previous day. This paper proposes an alternative daily based curve number technique that can provide better prediction of daily runoff during the high flow season. The proposed method uses the temporally weighted average curve number (TWA‐CN) to estimate daily surface runoff, while considering the effect of rainfall during a given day as well as the antecedent soil moisture condition. To test the applicability of the TWA‐CN method, it was incorporated with the long‐term, continuous simulation watershed models SWAT and SWAT‐G. Simulations were conducted for the Miho River watershed located in the middle of South Korea. The graphical displays and statistics of the determination coefficient (R²) and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) of the observed and simulated daily runoff indicated that the modified SWAT with the TWA‐CN method may provide better runoff prediction (R² = 0·837, NSE = 0·833) than the original SWAT (R² = 0·815, NSE = 0·824). Likewise, the determination coefficient (R² = 0·816) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0·834) for the modified SWAT‐G are also higher than the original version (R² = 0·782, NSE = 0·825). It is expected that the improved capability in predicting surface runoff using the suggested CN estimate method will provide a sound contribution to the accurate simulations of water yield. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of earthquake ground motions using an improved Hilbert–Huang transform

Some limitations of the Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) for nonlinear and nonstationary signal processing are remarked. As an enhancement to the HHT, a time varying vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model based method is proposed to calculate the instantaneous frequencies of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) obtained from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of a signal. By representing the IMFs as time varying VARMA model and using the Kalman filter to estimate the time varying model parameters, the instantaneous frequencies are calculated according to the time varying parameters, then the instantaneous frequencies and the envelopes derived from the cubic spline interpolation of the maxima of IMFs are used to yield the Hilbert spectrum. The analysis of the length of day dataset and the ground motion record El Centro (1940, N–S) shows that the proposed method offers advantages in frequency resolution, and produces more physically meaningful and readable Hilbert spectrum than the original HHT method, short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and wavelet transform (WT). The analysis of the seismic response of a building during the 1994 Northridge earthquake shows that the proposed method is a powerful tool for structural damage detection, which is expected as the promising area for future research.     

利辛ML4．6地震与蒙城地电阻率变化特征

以消除年变化等短周期变化后的数据做为当月正常值,利用实测的月均值与正常值之比即月干扰比率、偏差等指标,突出反映月观测值在当月受到综合干扰因素影响的大小。从而突出地震前短临地电阻率异常。     

结构动力方程的显式级数积分格式

将Newmark-β法中常平均加速度法的基本假定与精细指数算法结合,根据指数矩阵的Taylor级数展开式,提出了动力方程的显式级数解,并设计了相应的时程积分算法.该算法的精度可根据Taylor级数展开式的项数进行灵活控制.算例的结果表明:在满足稳定性条件的前提下,随着时间步长的增加,其精度优于传统的时程积分法.通过稳定性的分析,指出其稳定性条件是显然满足的.     

三维地震勘探中叠加速度成图

速度参数和成图方法和选取对于提高三维地震反射层构造图的精度是很重要的,文章提出了由地震资料的叠加速度来获得界面平均速度,并利用钻井资料对界面平均速度校正,得出了符合地质规律的平均速度,提高了作图精度。该方法成功地应用于华北某煤田勘探区的三维资料解释中,弥补了传统时深转换方法的不足,收到了很好的效果,所绘制的构造图深度同巷道资料吻合。     

一种全自动提取居民地的方法

对遥感影像中居民地提取的各种方法作了一般性的阐述,并在吸收这些算法优势的同时,提出了一种全自动实现遥感影像中居民地目标的提取方法：先求取非最大值抑制后的梯度图,而后进行高斯模糊处理,以提高影像上居民地区域纹理特征一致性;通过增强大津法和形态学的方法全方位腐蚀与膨胀,完成面状地物居民地的提取;最后进行图象矢量化处理。论述方法的同时,展示和分析了实验结果。     

基于多模式集成冬半年气温预报偏差修正

卡尔曼滤波递减平均方法对模式直接输出的气温预报进行订正,能有效提高预报准确率,但有时会造成显著负订正的现象,使订正预报效果反而不及模式直接输出。利用消除偏差集合平均方法(BREM)选择最优滑动训练期对2019年10月至2020年4月ECMWF预报(EC)、经过卡尔曼滤波递减平均法订正的预报(EC＿COR)及中央台网格指导预报(SCMOC)等3种气温预报在黑龙江省的结果进行集成,并将BREM方法对EC＿COR的修正效果进行评估,结果表明：不同预报结果都表现为冬季和夜间预报的准确率更低,气温偏低的11月至翌年1月更倾向于表现出预报较实况系统性偏高的特点。BREM方法能有效地修正EC＿COR对EC负订正的现象,且可显著高于任何一种参与集成的单一预报效果。可在对单一模式进行卡尔曼滤波递减平均订正的基础上,进一步提升预报质量。另外,利用集成方法对高质量预报产品的融合(不局限于模式直接输出预报或是订正预报)可获取较单一预报更优的预报结果。     

大连地区阵风系数特征分析

利用2015年5月至2020年4月辽宁省大连地区9个国家气象站、2017年165个区域气象站逐10 min测风资料,从风向、风级、月际变化、日变化、空间分布和天气影响系统等对大连地区最大、平均、最小阵风系数进行统计分析。结果表明：1—12月平均阵风系数的变化范围为1.66～1.77,秋末冬初平均阵风系数偏大,春夏季节偏小;与冷空气相对应风向的平均阵风系数大于与暖空气相对应的风向;随着风级的增大,最大、最小阵风系数向平均阵风系数收敛;不同风级下阵风系数的频率分布均呈单峰型分布,风级越大,分布范围越窄。除西南风外,其他风向的阵风系数均表现出白天大、夜间小的特点。大连地区阵风系数具有明显的地域特点,东南和西北部沿海区域的阵风系数比内陆和西南沿海偏小,风向基本不影响阵风系数的空间分布。大连的大风过程多受海上气旋和高压前部双系统共同影响,气旋、台风以及雷暴大风的平均阵风系数大于同风级的平均值。     

Spatial and temporal patterns of solar radiation in China from 1957 to 2016

Solar energy is clean and renewable energy that plays an important role in mitigating impacts of environmental problems and climate change. Solar radiation received on the earth’s surface determines the efficiency of power generation and the location and layout of photovoltaic arrays. In this paper, the average daily solar radiation of 77 stations in China from 1957 to 2016 was analyzed in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. The results indicate that Xinjiang, the Qinghai-Tibet Platea...