我国中部和南部地区降水再循环率评估

利用1976～1995 年20 年NCEP 再分析资料,对我国中、南部地区降水再循环率进行了评估,发现长江上游总的降雨有20%来自我国中、南部地区水汽蒸发,长江中下游总的降雨则有40%来自这一地区. 降水再循环率有很强的季节变化规律,8、9、10三个月的降水再循环率最高,达四成左右,而5、6、7三个月的降水再循环率不到四分之一.蒸发率和降水再循环率在20年中均有增加的趋势,这可能与气候变暖有关.     

中国日降雨量变化特征分析

将旋转主成分分析和复变量莫莱特小波分析应用于14a中国境内实测与ECMWF再分析日降雨量资料,研究其年际、季际与季节内变化的时空分布特征和再分析日降雨量资料的有效性。结果表明:从实测资料中分析的降水特征,都可以由再分析资料再现出来。除周内振荡大有出入外,其余频率的振荡二者大致相符或基本吻合。因此,周内振荡还不能被再分析数据较好地刻划,但是与旱涝灾害和季风爆发联系密切的周际以上振荡,在再分析日降雨量中基本上能被正确地表现出来。     

近45年全球海域波浪能资源研究及等级区划

基于来自ECMWF的资料将1957年09月---2002年08月风浪、涌浪分离的ERA-40 wave reanalysis,对全球海域的波浪能资源进行重新审视．充分依据涌浪具有能量大、稳定性好等优点,利于波浪能的采集与转换,从提高波浪能资源有效利用率的角度出发,综合考虑能流密度的大小、能级频率、能流密度的稳定性和长期变化趋势等,对全球海域的波浪能资源进行系统性研究,并构建一套波浪能资源评估系统,对全球海域的波浪能资源进行功能区划,为海浪发电、海水淡化等波浪能资源开发工作提供科学依据．     

南极洲低层两种位势高度再分析资料的比较

比较NCEP/NCAR和ECMWF两种再分析资料南半球低层等压面(700 hPa及以下)的平均位势高度场,结果表明:两者在南极洲差异显著,除12月、1月(南半球夏季)外,NCEP/NCAR资料存在一个虚假的很强的极地高压,而ECMWF资料正常。分析表明该两种再分析资料的上述差异来源于南极洲地面以下虚拟气压场的产生过程;NCEP/NCAR资料较ECMWF少了一个对南极洲过低地面温度的修正。由此得到的NCEP/NCAR资料若用于南半球低层大气环流整体结构的分析,会导致严重的错误。     

风云三号C星微波全球地表温度产品精度评估

地表温度是衡量地表水热平衡的关键参数,微波地表温度因其范围大、全天候等独特的优势,在气候、农业和环境等领域得到广泛应用。基于经质量控制的MODIS地表温度产品对风云三号卫星C星的微波地表温度日产品和月平均产品进行验证评估,结果显示:FY-3C卫星升轨(夜晚)和降轨(白天)微波地表温度日产品平均分别高估8. 7 K、低估13. 2 K,月平均产品平均分别高估7. 9 K、低估12. 0 K,日产品和月平均产品的反演误差都在15K以内。在全球空间分布上,升轨(夜晚)和降轨(白天)月产品误差分别呈现高估和低估,热带雨林区和沙漠、荒漠区域在夜晚分别高估5 K以内和30 K以内,白天则分别低估10 K以内和10～30 K。不同土地覆盖类型间FY-3C微波地表温度反演精度存在差异,总体上升轨(夜晚)比降轨(白天)的精度高,反演精度最高和最低的土地类型分别是常绿阔叶林和荒漠、稀疏植被,不同土地覆盖类型间的地表温度反演精度在季节上存在明显差异。根据分析结果,改进FY-3C微波地表温度的反演算法,可进一步提高微波地表温度的反演精度。     

A quantitative assessment of snow shielding effects on surface exposure dating from a western North American 10Be data compilation

To better assess the spatiotemporal variations of the snow shielding effect on surface exposure dating, we compiled a dataset of 1341 ¹⁰Be ages from alpine moraines and glacially eroded valleys across western North America, and conducted a sensitivity test with both modern and time-integrated snow data covering the same region. Our analyses reveal significant differences in snow shielding both across our geographic domain and through time. In our time-integrated experiments we find snow-based exposure age corrections as low as 3.5% in the Great Basin region and high as 28.4% in the Pacific Northwest for samples dating to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when no wind-sweeping is assumed. As demonstrated with our time-varying snow conditions with a global climate model and a positive degree day model, modern snow conditions across western North America cannot account for the varying snow patterns under large scale climate shifts since the LGM. The snow-based exposure age corrections from the modern data differ from those calculated by our time-varying model by up to 17% across our model domain. In addition, we find that the ¹⁰Be ages calculated under two end-member scenarios regarding wind-sweeping effects, specifically whether boulders were shielded only when the total snow accumulation exceeded boulder heights or were always shielded when the snow was present, can differ by ∼7.6% on average for LGM aged samples. Our analyses provide a model-based estimates of the spatiotemporal variability and complexity of snow shielding effects on surface exposure dates across western North America and highlight the need to consider snow depth variations both spatially and temporally when conducting surface exposure dating in terrains where snowfall accumulation is significant.     

近30年全球干旱半干旱区的蒸散变化特征

全球变暖加剧了气候系统能量和水分循环相互作用的变化,水分平衡变化导致极端旱涝事件频发。地表蒸散是能量水分循环的重要过程,是理解气候变化的关键环节。本文基于1982~2011年FLUXNET-MTE观测资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了全球干旱半干旱区蒸散的时空变化特征及典型区域的变幅、趋势和季节变化。结果表明:（1）干旱半干旱区多年平均蒸散量小于300 mm。冬季蒸散量最小,夏季最大且变率也最强。1990年代前后,干旱半干旱区蒸散发生了明显的年代际转变,暖季的年代际差异尤为明显。（2）近30年来,东半球干旱半干旱区蒸散量呈增加趋势,西半球呈减小趋势。典型区域来看,南非呈显著增加趋势[25.14 mm（10 a）-1],美国西南部呈显著减小趋势[-19.86 mm（10 a）-1];萨赫勒、中国北部和澳大利亚呈增加趋势,阿根廷及智利南部呈减小趋势。（3）蒸散变化与温度、降水的变化联系密切,三者具有相似的年循环变化,但三者间相关性在干旱半干旱区具有显著的差异性。     

COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.     

大气环流模式（GCMs）在东南诸河流域的适用性评价

采用秩评分方法,选取NCEP再分析资料作为“实测”依据,以10个统计特征值为基础,评估了21个GCMs对东南诸河流域17个气候要素的模拟效果．结果显示：气候变量表现出不同的统计特征,GCMs对不同气候变量的模拟效果并不一致．与地面气象站点实测值对比,CSIRO：MK30、GFDL：CM21、GFDL：CM20、INM：...     

Estimation of surface latent heat fluxes from IRS-P4/MSMR satellite data

The brightness temperatures of the Microwave sensor MSMR (Multichannel Scanning Microwave Radiometer) launched in May 1999 onboard Indian Oceansat-1 IRS-P4 are used to develop a direct retrieval method for latent heat flux by multivariate regression technique. The MSMR measures the microwave radiances at 8 channels at frequencies of 6.6, 10.7, 18 and 21 GHz at both vertical and horizontal polarizations. It is found that the surface LHF (Latent Heat Flux) is sensitive to all the channels. The coefficients were derived using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data of three months: July, September, November of 1999. The NCEP daily analyzed latent heat fluxes and brightness temperatures observed by MSMR were used to derive the coefficients. Validity of the derived coefficients was checked within situ observations over the Indian Ocean and with NCEP analyzed LHF for global points. The LHF derived directly from the MSMR brightness temperature (Tb) yielded an accuracy of 35 watt/m². LHF was also computed by applying bulk formula using the geophysical parameters extracted from MSMR. In this case the errors were higher apparently due to the errors involved in derivation of the geophysical parameters.