FREDERICK JACKSON TURNER AS A REGIONALIST∗

Basic contemporary portfolio models are applied to an interregional economic analysis of U.S. Census Regions during 1963-1978. The models are well suited the type of analysis that partitions a region's economic cycle into national and local components. Portfolio theory provides a logic for interregional cross investment; results of an empirical test indicate portfolio theory may be superior to simple neoclassical theory in explaining spatial patterns of capital investment.     

Exploring Regional Firm-Size Structure in Canadian Housebuilding: Ontario, 1991 and 1996

This paper is concerned with the regional firm-size structure of housebuilding in Canada based on a case study of the province of Ontario. Using an innovative database of builders in Ontario and geographic information systems, measures of regional firm-size structure are developed and are modeled with data from the Canadian census. The results corroborate established models in the city systems and industrial organization literatures in that industrial concentration is negatively associated with regional population size, economic diversity, and economic performance. Small housebuilding firms abound in large, diverse and economically vibrant regions, especially large urban regions, and thereby maintain industrial deconcentration.     

Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.     

A depth average SPH model including μ(I) rheology and crushing for rock avalanches

Classical depth-integrated smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) models for avalanches are extended in the present work to include a μ(I)− rheological model enriched with a fragmentation law. With this improvement, the basal friction becomes grain distribution dependent. Rock avalanches, where grain distribution tends to change with time while propagating, are the appropriate type of landslide to apply the new numerical proposal. The μ(I)− rheological models considered in the present work are those of Hatano and Gray, combined with two different fragmentation laws, a hyperbolic and a fractal-based law. As an application, Frank avalanche, which took place in Canada in 1903, is analyzed under the scope of the present approach, focusing in the influence of the rheological and fragmentation laws in the evolution of the avalanche.     

Comparison of Static,Kinematic and Dynamic Geodetic Deformation Models for Kutlugün Landslide in Northeastern Turkey

Being the cause of the loss of life and damaging property, landslide is an important natural hazard. Therefore, landslides have to be monitored and preventive measures taken accordingly. In Geodesy, landslides can be determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models. The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic geodetic model for landslides and compare it with static and kinematic geodetic models. A study area was selected in the Northeastern Black Sea Region of Turkey where landslides are the most effective natural hazard. Movements were determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models using geodetic, geologic and geophysical measurements made in the study area. Groundwater levels changes were regarded as causative forces in the formulation of the dynamic model. The dynamic model delivered more detailed information (direction, values, velocity, acceleration of movements) about landslide movements. It is possible to formulate more realistic strategies about prevention of landslides by using this information. As a result, it can be suggested that dynamic geodetic models are more useful in landslide studies.     

Limit state analysis of earthen slopes using dual continuum/FEM approaches

A framework alternative to that of classical slope stability analysis is developed, wherein the soil mass is treated as a continuum and in-situ soil stresses and strengths are computed accurately using inelastic finite element methods with general constitutive models. Within this framework, two alternative methods of stability analysis are presented. In the first, the strength characteristics of the soil mass are held constant, and the gravitational loading on the slope system is increased until failure is initiated by well-defined mechanisms. In the second approach, the gravity loading on the slope system is held constant, while the strength parameters of the soil mass are gradually decreased until well-defined failure mechanisms develop. Details on applying both of the proposed methods, and comparisons of their characteristics on a number of solved example problems are presented. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

火山喷发形式与挥发分含量

火山喷发是由地球深部物质发生部分熔融产生的岩浆上涌至地表所形成的一种地质现象,是地球内部能量释放的主要途径之一。有些火山喷发极为猛烈,产生的大量火山灰能够在长达几个月的时间内影响当地气候环境,甚至可以在一瞬间掩埋整座城市;而有些火山喷发时只有大量的熔岩从火山口中静静地溢出,人们甚至可以在不远处进行观赏。火山喷发具有何种程度的破坏力取决于其喷发形式,而挥发分含量是影响喷发形式的重要因素之一。本文简述了几种常见的喷发形式及其相互之间可能存在的转化关系,着重论述了挥发分含量在其中所起到的作用,同时介绍了几种可能的去气模型及常见的测量岩浆挥发分含量的方法。其中使用单斜辉石斑晶来反演大陆玄武岩原始岩浆水含量的方法预计会在未来的研究中得到普及。     

冰川区不同气温估算方法评估 ——以藏东南帕隆4号冰川为例

冰川作为地表特殊的下垫面,冰川区内气温明显低于同高度非冰川区大气温度。如何利用低海拔非冰川区观测资料精确估算高海拔冰川区气温,直接关系着青藏高原冰川消融估算及其水文效应的评估。利用架设在藏东南帕隆藏布4号冰川不同高度带的四台自动气象站资料,分析了冰川区与非冰川区气温的波动特征,评估了迄今为止通用的线性递推模型（DT模型）、分段拟合模型（SM模型）和简化热力学模型（GB模型）三种方法在藏东南冰川区气温估算方面的应用效果。对比研究发现：SM模型在帕隆4号冰川上的模拟效果最为理想且操作相对简单;传统DT模型在消融区存在严重的高估,帕隆4号冰川表面夏季（6-8月）正积温的高估比例接近39%;GB模型由于受到诸如冰川风边界层厚度等不确定性的影响,降低了大范围温度估算的可操作性。     

A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.     

船舶转向避让碰撞距离模型的确定

船舶碰撞距离直接影响船舶碰撞危险度的大小。分析了影响船舶碰撞距离的因素:会遇 态势、船舶的操纵性能、船舶尺度、船舶速度等;给出目标船静止不动时和目标船有运动速度时的 船舶转向避让时碰撞距离数学模型,为研究船舶碰撞危险度和船舶自动避碰决策系统提供理论依 据。