青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

A fuzzy approach to the lectotype optimization of offshore platforms

Lectotype optimization of offshore platforms is of particular importance in the concept design process. Lectotype optimization involves multiple objectives with uncertainty and so is a problem of multiple attribute decision making. To date, there have been few published works on this topic in the context of offshore engineering. This paper develops a framework and methodology for evaluation of offshore platform alternatives, where a fuzzy optimum model is proposed to integrate the influence of each objective in the criteria set, and a new weight-assessing method is developed to mimic the decision maker’s experience and preference based on complementary pairwise comparisons. A case study shows that the new framework and methodology is scientific, reasonable and easy to use in practice.     

On the adequacy of second-order models to predict abnormal waves

The paper is intended to extend the investigations about the nature of abnormal waves that have been reported in the work of Guedes Soares et al. (Characteristics of abnormal waves in North Sea states. Applied Ocean Research 25, [337–344]). The same dataset gathered at the oil platform North Alwyn in the North Sea during the November storm in 1997 is used along with the time series from the Draupner platform, in which an abnormal wave occurred. The data are reanalyzed from the viewpoint of the applicability of second-order models to fit large waves. The observed results confirm that the second-order approximation is not adequate to describe highly asymmetric and abnormal waves.     

Comparative tolerance of two estuarine annelids to fluoranthene under normoxic and moderately hypoxic conditions

The tolerance of the oligochaete Monopylephorus rubroniveus and the polychaete Streblospio benedicti to sediment-associated fluoranthene was characterized under normoxic (>80% dissolved oxygen saturation) and moderately hypoxic ( approximately 50% dissolved oxygen saturation) conditions. Under both conditions, M. rubroniveus was highly tolerant of fluoranthene. Streblospio benedicti was considerably less tolerant of fluoranthene compared with M. rubroniveus. In addition, S. benedicti was less tolerant to fluoranthene under moderately hypoxic conditions, although no differences in sensitivity between the two oxygen conditions were observed based upon median lethal tissue residues. Bioaccumulation factors were higher for S. benedicti exposed to moderate hypoxia, suggesting that behavioral adaptations to compensate for the lower dissolved oxygen increased its bioaccumulation of fluoranthene. The results of the present laboratory study demonstrate that (1). changes in annelid tolerance to fluoranthene under varying oxygen conditions is a species-dependent phenomenon and (2). the differential tolerance of these two annelids to these combined stressors is consistent with their relative abundances in the field.