Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction

Numerical models can be useful for explaining poorly understood phenomena or for reliable quantitative predictions. When modeling a multi-scale system, a ‘top-down’ approach—basing models on emergent variables and interactions, rather than explicitly on the much faster and smaller scale processes that give rise to them—facilitates both goals. Parameterizations representing emergent interactions range from highly simplified and abstracted to more quantitatively accurate. Empirically based large-scale parameterizations lead more reliably to accurate large-scale behavior than do parameterizations of much smaller scale processes. Conversely, purposefully simplified representations of model interactions can enhance a model's utility for explanation, clarifying the key feedbacks leading to an enigmatic behavior. For such potential insights to be relevant, the interactions in the model need to correspond to those in the ‘real’ system in some straightforward way. Such a correspondence usually holds for models constructed for predictive purposes, although this is not a requirement. The goals motivating a modeling endeavor help determine the most appropriate modeling strategies, as well as the most appropriate criteria for judging model usefulness.     

黄河流域水循环研究的进展和展望

总结了黄河流域水循环研究的进展,指出缺乏立足于水循环整体的机理过程的探讨及缺乏较成熟的流域水文模型是已有研究的不足。为能更好地模拟水文过程对各种作用力的响应,今后研究的方向将是建立既考虑垂向水分和能量传输(如降水,蒸发,感热),又考虑水平向的地表水分运动(汇流)和地下水基流过程的黄河流域的分布式水文模型。模型将结合遥感信息与地面资料,建立与区域大气环流模式(GCM)的接口,辅之以野外生态试验小区、径流试验场和室内试验的资料,以深入探索黄河流域水循环动力学机制     

引入强跟踪滤波器的 IMM 算法在导航定位解算中的应用

针对单一模型对城市机动载体运动状态估计不足的问题,本文在标准交互式多模型算法的基础上引入强跟踪滤波器,并以“当前”模型和“CV”模型作为基础模型进行交互式模型滤波。利用信号源仿真动态数据分析对比了利用单一模型算法、标准交互式多模型算法和引入强跟踪滤波器的交互式多模型算法的定位解算性能。实验结果表明：本文提出的基于强跟踪滤波器的交互式多模型算法相比于“当前”模型滤波和标准IM M 算法径向误差方差分别从19.11和16.78降低到13.24．     

Wave reflection from partially perforated-wall caisson breakwater

In 1995, Suh and Park developed a numerical model that computes the reflection of regular waves from a fully perforated-wall caisson breakwater. This paper describes how to apply this model to a partially perforated-wall caisson and irregular waves. To examine the performance of the model, existing experimental data are used for regular waves, while a laboratory experiment is conducted in this study for irregular waves. The numerical model based on a linear wave theory tends to over-predict the reflection coefficient of regular waves as the wave nonlinearity increases, but such an over-prediction is not observed in the case of irregular waves. For both regular and irregular waves, the numerical model slightly over- and under-predicts the reflection coefficients at larger and smaller values, respectively, because the model neglects the evanescent waves near the breakwater.     

腾格里沙漠东南缘降尘粒度特征和沉积速率

从多年降尘实测资料入手，分析了粉尘粒度特征、沉积速率和时变过程。提出了气象要素相关估测模型．确定０．２５ｍｍ为本区粉尘沉积粒径上限。周围沙漠是粉尘沉积细砂部分的尘源，粉砂和粘土部分沉积来自一个较大的时空范围，二者几乎各占降尘量的１／２。研究区年平均粉尘沉积速率４３５８ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，每年５月的季风转期具有年内最大沉积速率。     

三维地理信息系统中几何特征的误差模型

本文提出了三维地理信息系统中几何特征的误差模型。基于面表示的三维GIS的特征被分为点、线段及线,该模型给出这些特征的一种误差描述,即围绕着这些几何特征的量测值的一个范围。     

Application of a vanishing, quasi-sigma, vertical coordinate for simulation of high-speed, deep currents over the Sigsbee Escarpment in the Gulf of Mexico

Recent observations over the Sigsbee Escarpment in the Gulf of Mexico have revealed extremely energetic deep currents (near 1 m s⁻¹), which are trapped along the escarpment. Both scientific interest and engineering needs demand dynamical understanding of these extreme events, and can benefit from a numerical model designed to complement observational and theoretical investigations in this region of complicated topography. The primary objective of this study is to develop a modeling methodology capable of simulating these physical processes and apply the model to the Sigsbee Escarpment region. The very steep slope of the Sigsbee Escarpment (0.05–0.1) limits the application of ocean models with traditional terrain-following (sigma) vertical coordinates, which may represent the very complicated topography in the region adequately, can result in large truncation errors during calculation of the horizontal pressure gradient. A new vertical coordinate system, termed a vanishing quasi-sigma coordinate, is implemented in the Navy Coastal Ocean Model for application to the Sigsbee Escarpment region. Vertical coordinate surfaces for this grid have noticeably gentler slopes than a traditional sigma grid, while still following the terrain near the ocean bottom. The new vertical grid is tested with a suite of numerical experiments and compared to a classical sigma-layer model. The numerical error is substantially reduced in the model with the new vertical grid. A one-year, realistic, numerical simulation is performed to simulate strong, deep currents over the Escarpment using a very-high-resolution nested modeling approach. The model results are analyzed to demonstrate that the deep-ocean currents in the simulation replicate the prominent dynamical features of the observed intense currents in the region.     

Cloud Fields Over Irrigated Areas In Southwestern Kansas—Data And Speculations

This paper suggests that the delivery of services to dependent populations can be facilitated by the existing urban structure, particularly the prevailing patterns of homogeneity and heterogeneity. As a complement to formal attempts to improve the delivery of services and alter what often appears to be a spatially and socially unjust urban structure, the paper provides examples of simple interventions that can expand and enhance informal service delivery at the local level.     

基于格网DEM的地形特征线提取方法比较

山脊线和山谷线是进行地形学形态研究的基本问题之一,本文介绍了基于DEM数据提取山谷线和山脊线的国内外研究现状,并重点介绍了基于规则格网DEM提取的方法以及实际工作中所需要注意的问题.     

Turbulence Scale Dependence of the Richardson Constant in Lagrangian Stochastic Models

We investigate the relative dispersion properties of the well-mixed class of Lagrangian stochastic models. Dimensional analysis shows that, given a model in the class, its properties depend solely on a non-dimensional parameter, which measures the relative weight of Lagrangian-to-Eulerian scales. This parameter is formulated in terms of Kolmogorov constants, and model properties are then studied by modifying its value in a range that contains the experimental variability. Large variations are found for the quantity, g* = 2gC₀^{− 1}, where g is the Richardson constant.