Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.     

古元古代变质作用及其构造成因模式综述

以Ｐ－Ｔ－ｔ轨迹为手段，有助于探讨变质作用随大地构造演化或变迁而动态演化的特点，本文主要讨论了古元古代普遍出现的低压高温变质作用、高压高温变质作用及其Ｐ－Ｔ－ｔ轨迹，而且讨论了高压低温变质作用在古元古代很少出现的原因。在此基础上，综述了以上各类变质作用的各种可能的构造成因模式。     

经济全球化下地方生产网络模式演变分析——以中国为例

作为地方生产网络的主体 ,在经济全球化下 ,企业行为是全球化力量和地方化力量共同作用的结果。其中 ,全球化力量促使了企业生产要素可以跨越时间和空间障碍 ,在所有区位自由布局 ;地方化力量则使企业生产活动依然受到地方经济基础和制度文化背景的影响。本文认为经济全球化下地方生产网络是全球性企业和地方性企业战略行为博弈的结果。全球性企业和地方性企业的战略行为不同 ,其对全球生产网络和地方生产网络的影响也不同。本文从企业行为博弈的角度来分析经济全球化下 ,地方性生产企业的行为选择及其导致的地方生产网络变化 ,并以目前我国常见的三种地方生产网络演变模式为例 ,进行实证分析。     

On the choice of data transformation for modelling time series of significant wave height

Autoregressive models have been shown to adequately model the time series of significant wave height. However, since this series exhibits a seasonal component and has a non-gaussian nature, it is necessary to transform the series before a model can be fit to the data. Two different transformations that have been used in earlier work are shown not to be appropriate for all types of applications. A third transformation is proposed here, which combines the better features of the two earlier ones and which is appropriate for simulation work. This is demonstrated with an example of a series from Figueira da Foz, a location of the Portuguese Coast.     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Statistical and geostatistical features of streambed hydraulic conductivities in the Platte River, Nebraska

This paper presents streambed hydraulic conductivities of the Platte River from south-central to eastern Nebraska. The hydraulic conductivities were determined from river channels using permeameter tests. The vertical hydraulic conductivities (K _v ) from seven test sites along this river in south-central Nebraska belong to one statistical population. Its mean value is 40.2 m/d. However, the vertical hydraulic conductivities along four transects of the Ashland test site in eastern Nebraska have lower mean values, are statistically different from the K _v values in south-central Nebraska, and belong to two different populations with mean values of 20.7 and 9.1 m/d, respectively. Finer sediments carried from the Loup River and Elkhorn River watersheds to the eastern reach of the Platte River lowers the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the streambed. Correlation coefficients between water depth and K _v values along a test transect indicates a positive correlation – a larger K _v usually occurs in the part of channel with deeper water. Experimental variograms derived from the vertical hydraulic conductivities for several transects across the channels of the Platte River show periodicity of spatial correlation, which likely result from periodic variation of water depth across the channels. The sandy to gravelly streambed contains very local silt and clay layers; spatially continuous low-permeability streambed was not observed in the river channels. The horizontal hydraulic conductivities were larger than the vertical hydraulic conductivities for the same test locations.     

基于二维经验模态分解的重磁异常分离

由于地质过程的复杂性及成矿过程的多期次叠加性,原始重磁异常往往是多种地质因素的混合信息,既包含区域背景异常信息,也包含与矿床(体)、矿化蚀变带以及隐伏岩体等与找矿密切相关的地质要素所引起的局部重磁异常.如何从复杂的叠加重磁异常中分离出具有找矿意义的局部异常,是当前矿产勘查和资源潜力评价工作中面临的难题之一.采用经验模态分解(EMD)方法来分解重磁异常,为提高分解的稳健性提出了用双调和样条插值(BSI)进行包罗面插值的新方法,并以云南个旧地区重磁数据为例,对其进行非线性多尺度分解,实现对区域异常与局部重磁异常的分离,揭示了深层次找矿信息并拓宽了经验模态分解方法的应用领域.      

基于概念设计的长短桩复合地基典型工程应用模式

本文从长短桩复合地基各组成部分的功能角度,阐述了长桩、短桩、褥垫层的作用机理,提出长短桩复合地基概念设计应遵循的设计原则。应用概念设计思想,建立了长短桩复合地基的五种典型工程应用模式,并在各典型模式的分析说明中,提出设计与施工参数的选用建议。通过在北京某工程的实际应用,显示长短桩复合地基的典型工程应用模式具有较好的实用性。     

构造应力场三维数值模拟的有限单元法

目前构造应力场的研究主要是基于平面的二维分析,随着油气成藏过程三维模拟的发展,应力场的三维数值模拟显得越来越重要.从三维空间角度出发,分析了应力场的有限元模拟与求解的整个过程.基于不规则六面体单元的角点网格数据模型,对有限元求解法进行了分析与研究并提出计算方法.基于不规则角点网格数据模型的三维构造应力场有限元计算方法是本文的创新点.最后用上述方法对东营凹陷的牛庄-王家岗区域三维应力场进行了实际模拟计算,计算结果相比于其他数据模型更符合实际情况.      

安徽庐枞盆地泥河铁矿床与膏盐层的成因联系及矿床成矿模式

安徽庐枞盆地位于长江中下游断陷带内,地处扬子板块北缘,是长江中下游成矿带中重要的铁铜多金属成矿区和玢岩型铁矿的集中产地。庐枞盆地西北部勘探发现了大型泥河铁矿床,其硫铁矿和硬石膏矿床也达到了中大型规模,矿床中硬石膏在不同蚀变-矿化阶段均广泛发育,具有鲜明的成矿特色。深部勘探揭示庐枞盆地深部存在含石膏沉积地层(膏盐层),但目前膏盐层与成矿作用关系尚未引起研究重视。本文总结和分析了泥河铁矿床的地质地球化学特征,着重分析了膏盐层与铁矿床形成的关系,并在阐明成矿流体系统演化过程和成矿机理的基础上,提出泥河矿床的形成与三叠系膏盐层有着重要的成因关系,膏盐层是泥河铁矿床形成的重要地质条件之一。铁矿床及蚀变围岩中的大量硬石膏主要来自膏盐层;膏盐层为铁的成矿作用提供了大部分硫和矿化剂元素。在此基础上,建立了泥河铁矿床的两期成矿模式,即中晚三叠世含膏盐地层的沉积作用期(预备成矿期)和早白垩世的岩浆热液成矿期。