基于傅里叶级数的中国沿海地区Tm模型精化研究

本文采用中国沿海地区13个探空站2010~2014年实测地表温度T_s与平均温度T_m数据,利用傅里叶级数分析法精化中国沿海地区T_m模型,并将2015年探空站实测T_m数据与精化模型进行对比检验。结果表明,精化模型在T_m探测方面具有更高的计算精度,其计算大气可降水量的误差概率分布趋近于正态分布,具有较强的稳定性。     

函数模型与随机模型双约束的GPS-InSAR数据融合方法建立三维形变场

针对InSAR技术研究地表三维形变时监测信息不足的问题,以GPS监测信息为先验信息,建立附有随机模型约束的地表三维形变模型。考虑到SAR卫星极轨方式运行导致LOS向观测量对南北向形变不敏感的问题,以GPS南北向形变观测值作为强约束,构建三维形变解算的函数约束条件。模拟数据与西安地区实测数据的计算结果表明,基于随机模型与函数模型共同约束的地表三维形变参数最小二乘解的精度优于仅有函数模型约束或仅有随机模型约束及无任何约束的参数解精度。     

利用大地水准面模型计算垂线偏差的方法及精度分析

根据大地水准面与垂线偏差的关系,设计合理的计算方案,给出利用大地水准面模型计算垂线偏差的简化公式,并通过模拟计算探讨大地水准面相对精度、取点间距和已知点选取及个数对计算结果的影响。利用GEOID12B模型分别计算GSVS2011、GSVS2014项目中各测站点和美国西部区域（40°~45°N,100°~105°W,分辨率为1′）的垂线偏差,并与GSVS项目垂线偏差实测值和DEFLEC12B模型值进行比较。结果表明,垂线偏差南北分量和东西分量的计算精度均优于±0.5″,说明利用相对精度为cm甚至亚cm级的大地水准面模型可获取较高精度的垂线偏差。     

基于GPS和水准数据的微粒群算法联合反演祁连山北缘断裂三维滑动速率

将微粒群算法与位错理论模型相结合,采用中国地壳运动观测网络提供的青藏高原地区2001~2004年GPS测量数据和2000~2006年水准测量数据,通过常规定权和附有相对权比的方法对祁连山北缘断裂的三维滑动速率进行联合反演,并与蚁群算法反演结果进行对比。结果表明,微粒群算法收敛速度快、稳定性高,结合经典位错理论模型,是一种可以有效求解断层三维滑动速率反演问题的优化算法,在大地测量反演领域极具应用潜力。     

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.     

Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation crystal detector for formation element logging

Formation elements logging is a neutron gamma spectroscopy logging technique used to acquire the content of elements and minerals by recording the gamma ray produced by the reaction of neutron and elemental nucleus in the formation. It has a wide usage in discriminating complex lithology and evaluating unconventional reservoir. The Monte Carlo simulation model of formation elements logging tool is established in this paper, with which the effects of tool parameters including the material and length of the scintillation crystal and source spacing on logging responses are modeled. The results show that the energy response of LaBr_3: Ce crystal is better than others, and the detection efficiency increases with the crystal length but decrease with source spacing. The above results may be used as a reference for optimizing the tool structure design.     

区域可持续发展能力的能值与(火用)耦合分析模型构建

可持续发展能力评价方法是识别人地协同规律、支撑科学决策的重要工具和热点需求。通过文献回顾与理论分析框架构建,耦合能值及?方法,提出自组织能力指数（SO）、生态压力指数（EP）、可持续发展能力指数（SC）构成的,基于热力学理论的可持续发展能力分析模型,利用文献荟萃法筛选17个典型发达国家1985年状态值计算SO与EP阈值,划分了4个阶段。利用中美两国1985-2015年特征对比验证,结果显示：① 2005年以前中国属“低自组织能力、低生态压力”阶段,之后进入“低自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在低生态效率、规模扩张驱动特征;美国一直属“高自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在高生态效率驱动、经济与生态脱钩特征,与全球生态足迹网络和世界自然基金会等的研究结果一致,模型具有较好适应性和可靠性。② 模型利用“获得?量/输入能值量”表达经济社会生态效率、“经济社会?损耗量/生态系统年产?量”表达生态压力,连接了经济社会对生态基底的熵化路径,可识别区域所处可持续发展阶段、分析水平变化和驱动因素。③ 模型以人类与生态并重的视角,从深度上反映经济社会的生态效率、从广度上评价生态空间被占用比例,具有宏观规模与微观效率分析相结合的优势,是对经典方法的补充。     

基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。     

Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.     

中国城市网络关联格局的影响因素分析——基于电子信息企业网络的视角

城市网络关联格局影响因素的测度及其作用机理的解析是建立城市网络理论模型的关键环节。基于2017年中国电子信息100强企业网络视角构建城市网络,采用指数随机图模型定量测度了中国城市网络的影响因素,解析了城市网络生长发育的微观过程,并探索性的提出了理解中国城市网络发育机理的概念框架。研究发现：偏好依附效应和接收者（GDP）效应构成了中国城市网络中心性格局的微观基础,中国城市网络生长发育表现为择优选择的地理过程;互惠性链接深刻影响着城市间的关系格局,网络闭合机制逐步成为城市间链接关系的重要影响因素;空间距离对基于电子信息企业网络的城市网络约束作用并不明显,城市网络表现出在“流动空间”中生长发育的特征。