Impact of Boundary-Layer Parameterisation Schemes on the Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The impact of two boundary-layer parameterisation schemes on the prediction of Indian monsoon systems by a global spectral model has been investigated. The turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme shows a positive impact on the prediction of some important synoptic features, including the genesis of monsoon lows, the tracking of monsoon depressions, and precipitation.     

On cumulus-scale transport of horizontal momentum in monsoon depression over India

A diagnostie method of cumulus parameterization is suggested in which vertical transport of horizontal momentum by cumulus-scale is derived by making use of large-scale vorticity as well as divergence budget equations. Data for composite monsoon depression over India available from our earlier studies used to test the method. As a first approximation, the results are obtained using only the vorticity budget equation.The results show that in the southwest sector of the monsoon depression, which is characterized by maximum cloudiness and precipitation, there is an excess of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and anticyclonic vorticity in the upper troposphere associated with the large-scale motion. The distribution of eddy vertical transport of horizontal momentum is such that anticyclonic vorticity is generated in the lower troposphere and cyclonic vorticity aloft. Cumulus-scale eddies thus work against the large-scale system and tend to off-set the large-scale imbalance in vorticity.     

Hemispheric simulation of the Asian summer monsoon

A three-level, -plane, filtered model is used to simulate the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. A time-averaged initial state, devoid of sub-planetary scale waves, is integrated through 30 days on a 5° latitude-longitude grid. Day 25 through day 30 integrations are then repeated on a 2.5° grid. The planetary-scale waves are forced by time-independent, spatially varying diabatic heating. Energy is extracted via internal and surface frictional processes. Orography is excluded to simplify synoptic-scale energy sources.During integration the model energy first increases, but stabilizes near day 10. Subsequent flow patterns closely resemble the hemisphere summer monsoon. Climatological features remain quasi-stationary. At 200 mb high pressure dominates the land area, large-scale troughs are found over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the easterly jet forms south of Asia, and subtropical jets develop in the westerlies. At 800 mb subtropical highs dominate the oceans and the monsoon trough develops over the Asian land mass. The planetary scales at all levels develop a realistic cellular structure from the passage of transient synoptic-scale features, e.g., a baroclinic cyclone track develops near 55°N and westward propagating waves form in the easterlies.Barotropic redistribution of kinetic energy is examined over a low-latitude zonal strip using a Fourier wave-space. In contrast to higher latitudes where the zonal flow and both longer and shorter waves are fed by barotropic energy redistribution from the baroclinically unstable wavelengths, the low-latitude waves have a planetary-scale kinetic energy source. Wave numbers 1 and 2 maintain both the zonal flow and all shorter scales via barotropic transfers. Transient and standing wave processes are examined individually and in combination.Wave energy accumulates at wave numbers 7 and 8 at 200 mb and at wave number 11 in the lower troposphere. The 800-mb waves are thermally indirect and in the mean they give energy to the zonal flow. These characteristics agree with atmospheric observation. The energy source for these waves is the three wave barotropic transfer. The implications of examining barotropic processes in a Fourier wave-space, vice the more common approach of separating the flow into a mean plus a deviation are discussed.     

The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon by general circulation models

Summary The monsoon simulations of four general circulation models are illustrated. Additional results from the Meteorological Office model showing factors that are important in determining its simulation are presented. The large-scale flow patterns of all the models reproduce the large-scale flow fairly realistically, but more detailed characteristics and, in particular, the rainfall, are poorly represented.     

On the role of the Asian monsoon in the angular momentum and kinetic energy balances of the tropics

The balance conditions of relative angular momentum and time-mean kinetic energy and their annual variations are studied for the Northern Hemisphere tropical belt. The belt is divided into two roughly equal size parts, the monsoon and the extramonsoon regions. The data used consist of all available daily rawinsonde reports from the world areological network for the two 5-year periods 1958–63 and 1968–73.In winter, the trade winds in the monsoon and extramonsoon regions are both sources of westerly relative angular momentum for the middle latitude circulation. However, it is found that the angular momentum gained in the extramonsoon region of the Tropics is mostly destroyed by a net southward flow of mass in that region, and becomes regenerated in the monsoon region by a net northward flow of mass there. This excess of angular momentum together with the angular momentum picked up locally in the monsoon region is almost all exported across its northern boundary. It is further found that in winter the Tropics are also an important source of mean kinetic energy for middle latitudes. Again almost all export of kinetic energy was found to take place across the northern boundary of the monsoon sector. Most of this energy must be generated through the pressure gradient term inside the monsoon region itself, the transformation from transient eddy kinetic energy being very small. The proper evaluation of the pressure gradient appears to be the main stumbling block in the present study, preventing us from estimating the generation and thereby, as a residual, the frictional dissipation in the two regions.In summer, the extramonsoon region remains a source of angular momentum, but the monsoon region with its surface westerlies acts as a sink, leading to a sharp reduction (and even a midsummer reversal) of the export into middle latitudes. Also the export of mean kinetic energy almost vanishes in summer, except for a small southward transfer across the equator. The calculations for two 5-year periods give very similar estimates and thereby show the reliability of the results.Parts of this paper were presented at the International Symposium on Monsoons, March 7–12, 1977 in New Delhi, India.     

Some theoretical problems of the planetary-scale monsoons

Summary Some important theoretical problems of the planetary-scale monsoons which have arisen from recent advances of observational studies are reviewed. These include: (1) the requirement of a strong damping mechanism in the planetary scale vorticity budget of summer monsoon and a similar but weaker requirement for the winter monsoon; (2) the localized barotropic instability of the summer monsoon which is a result of the strong zonal asymmetry of the planetary-scale flow and causes significant nonlinear energy conversions; and (3) the oscillations of the planetary-scale monsoons. It is pointed out that these problems are inter-related and their understanding is also important for the proper simulation of other scales of motion of the monsoon circulation.     

Numerical weather prediction relevant to the monsoon problem

In this short paper we have identified some of the modelling groups that have the capability of simulating or carrying out short range numerical weather prediction over the monsoon belt. We have next outlined some of the important and desirable ingredients for a multilevel primitive equation model over the tropics, with most of the emphasis on the present version of Florida State University's Tropical Prediction Model. Finally, we present briefly some important results based on the present version of our prediction models that relate to the NWP efforts over the monsoon belt. Here we have identified the importance of mountains, convection, the radiative heating balance of the earth's surface, and the planetary boundary layer over the Arabian Sea.     

Modelling of the spatial evolution of extreme laboratory wave crest and trough heights with the NLS-type equations

The statistical properties of long-crested nonlinear wave time series measured in an offshore basin have been analyzed in different aspects such as the distributions of surface elevation, wave crest, wave trough, and wave period. Comparison with linear, second-order and third-order theoretical models indicates that although bound wave effects also contribute to the deviation from a Gaussian process, it is the modulational instability that primarily determines the discrepancy in the evolution process in the presence of strong nonlinearity. Interestingly enough, wave crest is more sensitive to the quasi-resonant four-wave interaction effect than wave trough and the scaled maximal wave crest presents a linear regression model with the coefficient of kurtosis. Meanwhile, the estimation of the observed statistical properties is reconstructed on the basis of an ensemble of 100 wave series simulated by the NLS-type equations and compared favourably with the experimental results in most cases. Moreover, with the increased third-order nonlinear effect the difference between NLS and Dysthe simulations is enlarged and mainly reflected on the distribution of wave crest.     

2009—2010年云南特大干旱的气候特征及成因

基于云南122个站降水、气温资料分析2009—2010年特大干旱气候的特征。2009年7月至2010年6月云南气温持续偏高,降水持续偏少,干旱从2009年9月出现,一直持续到2010年5月,许多县(市)干旱持续时间接近200 d,单日的重、特旱县(市)站数破1961年以来记录。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析和OLR资料,应用环流分析、水汽输送等方法分析此次干旱形成和持续关键时段2009年9—10月、2010年3月和5月的环流异常。结果表明,2009年9—10月乌拉尔山、青藏高原东部为脊,冷空气活动偏弱;赤道印度洋对流层低层为异常东风、高层为异常西风,导致纬向的季风环流圈偏弱;孟加拉湾、中南半岛对流偏弱;西南季风通道进入云南的水汽输送偏弱,云南上空水汽含量偏少并为异常下沉区。2010年3月欧亚中高纬位势高度距平场为北负南正,以纬向环流为主,冷空气偏北;西太平洋副高与北非副高连通并在低纬形成坝状高压带;南支槽上游地区高度场偏高、为异常下沉区;西风带无明显波动,导致南支槽不活跃,云南处于水汽辐散区。2010年5月欧亚中高纬距平分布为"-+-",低槽和冷空气偏北,西太平洋副高西伸至安达曼海,阻挡了越赤道气流进入孟加拉湾,致使孟加拉湾南部、中南半岛西南季风爆发偏晚,云南为异常西北水汽输送,为水汽辐散区。     

季风低压对台风生成影响的观测分析

选取2007年和2009年发生的4个季风低压个例, 利用FNL资料和CMORPH卫星反演的降水资料, 采用多尺度环流分析法, 对西北太平洋季风环流的多尺度特征进行了分析, 研究季风低压对台风生成的可能影响。分析发现:季风低压生成于季风槽中, 其天气尺度波列的气旋性环流中。虽然以季风槽为特点的低频环流为台风生成提供大尺度气候条件, 但是季风低压通过进一步提供较大的正相对涡度, 可以有效减小Rossby变形半径, 促进热带低压中中尺度对流系统的相互作用和合并, 有利于台风的生成。