Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil

Peak Oil, which refers to the maximum possible global oil production rate, is increasingly gaining attention in both science and policy discourses. However, little is known about how this phenomenon will impact economies, despite its apparent imminence and potential dangers. In this paper, we construct a vulnerability map of the U.S. economy, combining two approaches for analyzing economic systems, i.e. input–output analysis and social network analysis (applied to economic data). Our approach reveals the relative importance of individual economic sectors, and how vulnerable they are to oil price shocks. As such, our dual-analysis helps identify which sectors, due to their strategic position, could put the entire U.S. economy at risk from Peak Oil. For the U.S., such sectors would include Iron Mills, Fertilizer Production and Transport by Air. Our findings thus provide early warnings to downstream companies about potential ‘trouble’ in their supply chain, and inform policy action for Peak Oil. Although our analysis is embedded in a Peak Oil narrative, it is just as valid and useful in the context of developing a climate roadmap toward a low carbon economy.     

Isolating mesoscale coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Kuroshio Extension region

The Kuroshio Extension region is characterized by energetic oceanic mesoscale and frontal variability that alters the air–sea fluxes that can influence large-scale climate variability in the North Pacific. We investigate this mesoscale air-sea coupling using a regional eddy-resolving coupled ocean–atmosphere (OA) model that downscales the observed large-scale climate variability from 2001 to 2007. The model simulates many aspects of the observed seasonal cycle of OA coupling strength for both momentum and turbulent heat fluxes. We introduce a new modeling approach to study the scale-dependence of two well-known mechanisms for the surface wind response to mesoscale sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the ‘vertical mixing mechanism’ (VMM) and the ‘pressure adjustment mechanism’ (PAM). We compare the fully coupled model to the same model with an online, 2-D spatial smoother applied to remove the mesoscale SST field felt by the atmosphere. Both VMM and PAM are found to be active during the strong wintertime peak seen in the coupling strength in both the model and observations. For VMM, large-scale SST gradients surprisingly generate coupling between downwind SST gradient and wind stress divergence that is often stronger than the coupling on the mesoscale, indicating their joint importance in OA interaction in this region. In contrast, VMM coupling between crosswind SST gradient and wind stress curl occurs only on the mesoscale, and not over large-scale SST gradients, indicating the essential role of the ocean mesocale. For PAM, the model results indicate that coupling between the Laplacian of sea level pressure and surface wind convergence occurs for both mesoscale and large-scale processes, but inclusion of the mesoscale roughly doubles the coupling strength. Coupling between latent heat flux and SST is found to be significant throughout the entire seasonal cycle in both fully coupled mode and large-scale coupled mode, with peak coupling during winter months. The atmospheric response to the oceanic mesoscale SST is also studied by comparing the fully coupled run to an uncoupled atmospheric model forced with smoothed SST prescribed from the coupled run. Precipitation anomalies are found to be forced by surface wind convergence patterns that are driven by mesoscale SST gradients, indicating the importance of the ocean forcing the atmosphere at this scale.     

Sea-Ice Concentration Multivariate Assimilation for the Canadian East Coast in a Coupled Sea Ice–Ocean Model

The present study focuses on the impact of ocean state (i.e., salinity and temperature) updates on the sea-ice analysis and short-term forecast in an assimilative sea ice–ocean coupled system. A relatively simple sea-ice assimilation scheme was applied to the sea ice–ocean coupled North Atlantic Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) system with a focus on the Canadian East Coast. In this assimilation scheme the ocean state was updated directly based on the correlations between the model's sea-ice concentration and the upper ocean salinity and temperature. These correlations were based on a limited time ensemble generated by applying random perturbations to the atmospheric forcing fields. High deviations in the sea-ice conditions were found along the ice edge, implying that the sea-ice edge position is sensitive to small atmospheric forcing variations. Assimilation runs with and without ocean state updates (i.e., sea-ice concentration nudging) were conducted and compared for the winter of 2002. Both continuous and intermittent assimilation schemes were examined. In a continuous sea-ice assimilation experiment, the ocean direct update is unnecessary. When the sea-ice updates are introduced intermittently the ocean state has to be altered to accommodate them, or they will be rapidly diminished by the model's dynamics. The correlations between sea-ice concentration and ocean salinity and temperature based on the first 15 days of January were used for corrections during the entire winter season when, in addition to thermodynamic processes, dynamic processes are responsible for, and even dominate, sea-ice evolution on the Labrador and Newfoundland shelves. This was an adequate choice as was demonstrated by the results of the study which showed that the experiments with ocean state adjustments generated more accurate short-term sea-ice forecasts.     

International trade undermines national emission reduction targets: New evidence from air pollution

Many developed countries in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol have been able to report decreasing emissions, and some have officially fulfilled their CO₂ reduction commitments. This is in part because current reporting and regulatory regimes allow these countries to displace emissions intensive production offshore. Using a new highly detailed account of emissions embodied in international trade we investigate this phenomenon of emissions leakage. We independently confirm previous findings that adjusting for trade, developed countries emissions have increased, not decreased. We find that the sectors successfully holding or lowering their domestic emissions are often the same as those increasing their imports of embodied CO₂. We also find that the fastest growing flow paths of embodied CO₂ largely originate outside the Kyoto Annex B signatory nations. Finally, we find that historically the same phenomenon of emissions displacement has already occurred for air pollution, with the result that despite aggressive legislation in major emitters total global air pollution emissions have increased. If regulatory policies do not account for embodied imports, global emissions are likely to rise even if developed countries emitters enforce strong national emissions targets.     

What role for social–ecological systems research in governing global teleconnections?

The paper considers the extent to which social–ecological systems research might contribute to an improved understanding of the social and environmental impacts of teleconnections inherent in economic globalisation. Recognising the importance and specificity of regional interconnections, wherein actions in certain parts of the world impact quite specifically on the sustainability of certain other spatially distant places and systems, the paper reflects on the social and environmental implications of increasingly interconnected agri-food systems and intersecting global commodity chains. Key elements of social–ecological systems approaches, which have purported relevance to research on globalisation, are critically examined, and aspects of social–ecological systems thinking that pose challenges for its application in this context are considered. Wider implications and limitations of social–ecological systems approaches to research and practice in (global) governance for sustainability are discussed. The general conclusion is that social–ecological systems research may offer insights into the governance of social and environmental impacts of agri-food systems and other complex systems at certain scales. However, the formal utility of concepts like resilience, vulnerability and adaptability becomes considerably less clear as research turns to analyses of larger, complex, globally teleconnected systems, where the main contribution of such concepts may lie in their metaphorical appeal to important aspects of interconnectivity and interdependence.     

Transitional and freshwater bioassessments: One site,two perspectives?

The freshwater–saltwater-transition-zone was analysed using two different sampling protocols and assessment methodologies, developed for freshwater and estuaries, to compare their agreement level in terms of community composition and quality assessments. The use of different protocols resulted in significant differences in macroinvertebrate communities, in index scores and initially in quality classes. After modifications in the sensitivity scores of the IBMWP and AMBI indices (average scores or the use of a score of the other index when both were present), the differences were largely reduced and quality classes became coincident for the assessments provided by IPtIs and BAT tools. Such harmonisation of quality assessments for adjacent water categories (e.g., large rivers vs. transitional waters), exemplified here as an harmonisation in one of the metrics comprised in the assessment tools, is essential as it has direct implications on the expansion and accomplishment of River Basin Management Plans committed by the Water Framework Directive.     

First-order doubly-asymptotic formulation of the direct stiffness method for elastodynamic problems

A first-order formulation to analyze the dynamic response of layered soil profiles is presented as an alternative to the widely used second-order thin-layer method by the direct stiffness approach, including an efficient simulation of the underlaying elastic half-space. In contrast to the thin-layer method where response is expressed through a combination of second-order propagation modes, the proposed procedure uses first-order modal parameters that have the capacity to provide a good approximation in the complete wave number domain k, including the exact stiffness values for k=0 and k→∞, thus justifying its designation of doubly-asymptotic. This feature allows obtaining the exact soil profile response for static loads, while the proposed treatment of the elastic half-space reproduces naturally the radiation condition without a need of artificial damping. The capacity of the proposed formulation to solve elastodynamic problems is assessed by comparing its results with those of exact solutions available in the literature, and numerical solutions of rigid disks supported on the surface of different soil profiles.     

Coupling the Common Land Model to ECHAM5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season.     

A steady nonlinear and singular vortex Rossby wave within a rapidly rotating vortex. Part II: Application to geophysical vortices

In a previous paper, Caillol [Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 2014, 108] investigated the steady nonlinear vortical structure of a singular vortex Rossby mode that has survived to a strong critical-layer-like interaction with a linearly stable, columnar, axisymmetric and dry vortex. We presented a general theory for this wave/mean flow interaction through the nonlinear critical layer theory and calculated the mean azimuthal and axial winds induced at the critical radius at the end of this interaction in the final stage. We here apply that theory to rapidly rotating geophysical vortices: tropical cyclones, cold-air mesocyclones and tornadoes. We find that the numerous assumptions invoked in that paper agree well with the reality of those intense vortices. We also find that in spite of a lack of moist-convection modelling, this dry vortex is fairly well accelerated at the critical radius by such a shear wave with a magnitude of order the square root of the damped-wave amplitude. The intensification level strongly depends on the aspect ratio, height of the system: rapid vortex and parent vortex, over core radius. The thinner the vortex is, the sharper the intensification is. This result is in sharp contrast to the numerous numerical simulations on VR wave/vortex interactions that yield a much smaller intensification of order the square of the wave amplitude. This weakly nonlinear approach nevertheless fails to model small vertical wavelength VR wave/vortex interactions for their related asymptotic expansions are divergent and for they yield strongly nonlinear VR waves coupled with evolving critical layers whose extent can no longer be considered as thin.     

How can a few streamflow measurements help to predict daily hydrographs at almost ungauged sites?

Abstract

Available data from nearby gauging stations can provide a great source of hydrometric information that is potentially transferable to an ungauged site. Furthermore, streamflow measurements may even be available for the ungauged site. This paper explores the potential of four distance-based regionalization methods to simulate daily hydrographs at almost ungauged pollution-control sites. Two methods use only the hydrological information provided by neighbouring catchments; the other two are new regionalization methods parameterized with a limited number of streamflow data available at the site of interest. Based on a network of 149 streamgauges and 21 pollution-control sites located in the Upper Rhine-Meuse area, the comparative assessment demonstrates the benefit of making available point streamflow measurements at the location of interest for improving quantitative streamflow prediction. The advantage is moderate for the prediction of flow types (stormflow, recession flow, baseflow) and pulse shape (duration of rising limb and falling limb).

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione