Twenty years of land use and livelihood changes in SE-Niger: Obsolete and short-sighted adaptation to climatic and demographic pressures?

This paper explores the evolution of land use and natural resource management strategies over the past twenty to fifty years in a remote Sahelian region. The empirical example is Karagou village in SE Niger. Building on an in-depth survey from 1992 and a targeted, follow-up analysis of contemporary land use strategies in 2011, the change process is scrutinized.The analysis uses the conceptual lenses of land systems science, human–environmental timelines, and the notion of multiple exposures. Enabling and constraining conditions for local livelihoods in terms of the resource base (landscape, water, and population) are described. Results characterize how land use strategies have developed and how local people opportunistically use different landscape elements such as dune landscapes, valley bottoms (bas-fonds) and oases (cuvettes). Major concerns are rainfall variability, saturation of cropland, and perceived dwindling groundwater resources. It is concluded that the land use and livelihood strategies have remained remarkably stable in the face of the changing socio-ecological fringe conditions, but that this situation may hamper a sustainable transformation.     

黑河流域降水统计——动力降尺度问题研究

依据区域气候模式RIEMS2.0输出的3 km高分辨率数据和站点降水记录分析了中国西北黑河流域降水的动力降尺度和统计—动力降尺度问题,检验了多种因子组合下多元线性回归（MLR）和贝叶斯模式平均（BMA）降尺度模型,评估了降尺度降水的均方根误差、相关系数、方差百分率及“负降水”偏差率等方面的统计特征。结果表明,动力降尺度降水相关系数最高,误差也最大,降水方差达到观测值的1.5～2倍;除相关系数外,统计—动力降尺度模型的几个统计特征均最优,纯统计模型次之。检验表明,仅用700 hPa位势高度场、经向风和比湿等构建的统计降尺度模型估计的站点降水相关系数较低,均方根误差也较大。当在统计降尺度模型中引入模式降水因子后站点降水的估计得到明显改善,其中MLR类模型的降水相关系数和方差百分率均明显高于BMA类模型,均方根误差二者相当,但前者“负降水”出现频次明显大于后者,“负降水”偏差主要出现在降水稀少的冬半年及黑河中、下游干旱或极端干旱区,上游出现频率较低,其中MLR类模型“负降水”出现频次明显高于BMA类模型,后者仅出现在黑河中、下游地区。包含模式降水因子的统计—动力降尺度模型能减少“负降水”出现...     

Modelling ecohydrological feedbacks in forest and grassland plots under a prolonged drought anomaly in Central Europe 2018–2020

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of understanding ecohydrological drought feedbacks to secure water resources under a changing climate and increasing anthropogenic impacts. In this study, we monitored and modelled feedbacks in the soil–plant-atmosphere continuum to the European drought summer 2018 and the following 2 years. The physically based, isotope-aided model EcH₂O-iso was applied to generic vegetation plots (forest and grassland) in the lowland, groundwater-dominated research catchment Demnitzer Millcreek (NE Germany; 66 km²). We included, inter alia, soil water isotope data in the model calibration and quantified changing “blue” (groundwater recharge) and “green” (evapotranspiration) water fluxes and ages under each land use as the drought progressed. Novel plant xylem isotope data were excluded from calibration but were compared with simulated root uptake signatures in model validation. Results indicated inter-site differences in the dynamics of soil water storage and fluxes with contrasting water age both during the drought and the subsequent 2 years. Forest vegetation consistently showed a greater moisture stress, more rapid recovery and higher variability in root water uptake depths from a generally younger soil water storage. In contrast, the grassland site, which had more water-retentive soils, showed higher and older soil water storage and groundwater recharge fluxes. The damped storage and flux dynamics under grassland led to a slower return to younger water ages at depth. Such evidence-based and quantitative differences in ecohydrological feedbacks to drought stress in contrasting soil-vegetation units provide important insights into Critical Zone water cycling. This can help inform future progress in the monitoring, modelling and development of climate mitigation strategies in drought-sensitive lowlands.     

Modelling of Ocean Shallow Convection under Fast Ice in the Arctic

Ocean convection in the Antarctic has been studied many times and has been revealed to be responsible for ice-cover reduction. In the Arctic, proof of that phenomenon has not been documented. It is believed that this phenomenon happens on a smaller scale in the Arctic when local circulation of deep warmer water melts and slows ice production. An example of this is the North Water (NOW) polynya in northern Baffin Bay. A polynya is an area of open water in an otherwise ice-covered area. As ice forms under the fast ice near the boundary of the polynya, ocean salts (brine) are ejected from the newly formed ice. This water, which has an increased concentration of salt, sinks and is replaced by warmer water from below, and this slows ice formation. In our study a coupled one-dimensional thermodynamic snow–fast ice model incorporating ocean heat flux input via a shallow convection model was used. Ice thickness was calculated using a thermodynamic model that included a current-induced entrainment model and a convection model to account for brine rejection during ice growth. Atmospheric observations from Grise Fiord and Thule and ocean profiles around the NOW polynya near these sites were used as input to the model. This purely thermodynamic study enables us to obtain ice thickness values that can be compared with qualitative observations. This modelling study compares two sites related to the NOW polynya. The results indicate that the shallow convection model simulates the reduction of fast ice near Thule but not near Grise Fiord.     

Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment

Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO₂ emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.

Key policy insights

• Low-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.

• The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.

• Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.

• A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.

     

Nonlocal period parameters of frequency content characterization for near-fault ground motions

This paper focuses on the frequency property analysis of near-fault ground motions with and without distinct pulses, separately from the Chi-Chi and Northridge earthquakes. Ten scalar period parameters of ground motions, especially several nonlocal period parameters, are considered. Two new nonlocal parameters, namely the mean period of Hilbert marginal spectrum (T_mh) and the improved characteristic period (T_gi), are suggested. Moreover, comprehensive comparison and analysis indicate that T_mh, T_gi and T_avg (average spectral period) can distinguish the low-frequency components of near-fault ground motions; T_m (mean period of Fourier amplitude spectrum) and T_o (smoothed spectral predominant period) represent the moderate- and high-frequency components, respectively. The variance coefficient of predominant instantaneous frequency of Hilbert spectrum (H_cov) can be regarded as an alternative index to measure the non-stationary degree of near-fault ground motions. Finally, the velocity pulses and earthquake magnitude remarkably affect the frequency parameters of near-fault ground motions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Characteristics and Controlling Factors of Water and Heat Exchanges over the Alpine Wetland in the East of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Alpine wetland is one of the typical underlying surfaces on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. It plays a crucial role in runoff regulation. Investigations on the mechanisms of water and heat exchanges are necessary to understand the land surface processes over the alpine wetland. This study explores the characteristics of hydro-meteorological factors with in situ observations and uses the Community Land Model 5 to identify the main factors controlling water and heat exchanges.Latent heat flux and therm...     

Formation of elongated granite–migmatite domes as isostatic accommodation structures in collisional orogens

The mid-Carboniferous Pelhřimov core complex, Bohemian Massif, is a crustal-scale elongated granite–migmatite dome interpreted to have formed by gravity-driven diapiric upwelling of the metapelitic middle crust. The vertical diapiric flow is evidenced by outward-dipping foliation and lineation patterns, deformation coeval with the widespread presence of melt, rapid exhumation of the dome center from depths corresponding to pressure of about 0.6 GPa to shallow levels (pressure less than 0.2 GPa) within 2 M.y., and kinematic indicators of downward return flow of the mantling rocks. As compared to common diapirs, however, the Pelhřimov complex exhibits a more complicated inferred strain pattern with two perpendicular, irregularly alternating directions of horizontal extension in what is interpreted as the diapir head. Comparison of structural data from migmatites with anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) data in granites also reveals that only final increments of strain are recorded in the granites. The map dimensions and gravity image of the complex suggest that the diapiric upwelling affected a large portion of the orogen's interior between two microplates brought together during continental collision. The northwesterly microplate (the upper-crustal Teplá–Barrandian unit) collapsed vertically as an ‘elevator’ at around 346–337 Ma whereas the easterly microplate (Brunia) was underthrust beneath the Moldanubian rocks during ∼346–330 Ma (the indentor). It is suggested that these microplates then acted as cold and rigid margins localizing mid-crustal diapirism and associated voluminous S-type granite plutons inbetween, parallel to the edge of the Brunia indentor.We conclude that bringing together soft metapelitic middle crust with two rigid lithospheric blocks during collision resulted in significant lateral temperature and strength variations across the orogen's interior. A general conclusion from these inferences is that granite–migmatite domes delineating margins of collided microplates may form as crustal-scale structures accommodating late-orogenic isostatic reequilibration.     

Geotechnical design with apparent seismic safety factors well-bellow 1

The paper demonstrates that whereas often in seismic geotechnical design it is not realistically feasible to design with ample factor of safety against failure as is done in static design, an “engineering” apparent seismic factor of safety less than 1 does not imply failure. Examples from slope stability and foundation rocking illustrate the concept. It is also shown that in many cases it may be beneficial to under-design the foundation by accepting substantial uplifting and/or full mobilization of bearing capacity failure mechanisms.     

Assessment of environmental flows under limited data availability: case study of the Acheloos River,Greece

Abstract

The lower course of the Acheloos River is an important hydrosystem in Greece, heavily modified by a cascade of four hydropower dams upstream, which is now being extended by two more dams in the upper course. The design of the dams and hydropower facilities that are in operation has not considered any environmental criteria. However, in the last 50 years, numerous methodologies have been proposed to assess the negative impacts of such projects to both the abiotic and biotic environment, and to provide decision support towards establishing appropriate constraints on their operation, typically in terms of minimum flow requirements. In this study, seeking a more environmentally-friendly operation of the hydrosystem, we investigate the outflow policy from the most downstream dam, examining alternative environmental flow approaches. Accounting for data limitations, we recommend the basic flow method, which is parsimonious and suitable for Mediterranean rivers, whose flows exhibit strong variability across seasons. We also show that the wetted perimeter–discharge method, which is an elementary hydraulic approach, provides consistent results, even without using any flow data. Finally, we examine the adaptation of the proposed flow policy (including artificial flooding) to the real-time hydropower generation schedule, and the management of the resulting conflicts.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Efstratiadis, A., Tegos, A., Varveris, A., and Koutsoyiannis, D., 2014. Assessment of environmental flows under limited data availability: case study of the Acheloos River, Greece. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 731–750.