利用雷达资料反演方法对北京地区一次强对流天气过程的分析

利用多普勒雷达变分分析系统(VDRAS),对2006年8月1日傍晚北京城区出现的一次强对流天气过程(伴有冰雹、大风及强降水)的三维风场、温度场进行了初步分析.结果表明:(1)初始对流生成于北京西北部山区的河北省境内,系统过山移进北京城区时,受局地的动力及热力条件作用,迅速组织并强烈发展,形成带状的MCS即飑线;(2)在飑线生成之前,北京城区及东南部边界层低层存在较强的东风气流,并迅速扩展向西北方向延伸,与过山的西北偏北气流形成强的边界层辐合线.该近地面辐合线是飑线生成的主要触发机制,而边界层低层东风的加强和减弱以及北进和南退对辐合线的维持、飑线的生成、发展和减弱都起着重要的作用;(3)在边界层辐合线的作用下,不断有新生对流系统发展;(4)对流系统在整个发展过程中呈明显的带状分布特征,是一次典型的飑线过程,并伴有明显的阵风锋.     

2007年夏季川渝与江淮流域MCS分布与日变化特征

2007年夏季川渝地区及江淮流域持续性降水、极端强降水和强对流事件频发.利用强暴雨发生时段2007年6月28日至7月26日逐时FY-2C红外TBB资料对这两个地区及周边区域(25°～38°N、100°～130°E)进行普查,共获得570个生命史≥3小时的中尺度对流系统(MCS).MCS的定义为-52℃ TBB闭合等值线内TBB≤-52℃的面积≥400km~2,不区分形状与生命史.MCS识别由计算机自动完成,MCS追踪由人工完成.普查结果发现,云南西北部至四川西部、四川东部与重庆、云贵高原东部和广西北部山区至洞庭湖、淮河流域四个区域是MCS活跃区,但淮河流域又有三个波动状MCS活跃中心.普查区域内总体MCS和川渝地区活动最频繁的MCS持续时间为3～7小时,但江淮流域活动最频繁的MCS生命史为4～9小时.按时间尺度将570个MCS分成三类,第一类MCS生命史3～5小时,第二类MCS生命史6～11小时,第三类MCS生命史≥12小时.三类MCS的地理分布特征及触发机制各不相同:第一、二类MCS在西太平洋副高平均位置的内、外侧都有发生,它们的发生、发展及移动受中尺度因素影响明显,可能与地形、中尺度辐合线等有关;第三类MCS发生在西太平洋副热带高压平均位置的外侧,其发生、发展及移动路径受天气尺度环境控制因素显著.三类MCS日变化具有明显不同的日变化特征.三类MCS的形成高峰都出现在午后.第一类MCS无显著的夜发性特征,第二、三类MCS有较显著的夜发性特征.第一、二类MCS在午后最活跃,但第三类MCS活动最活跃时段在下半夜(18UTC).川渝地区和江淮流域的MCS都具有多峰型日变化特征,但二者的活跃时段有所不同.本文还给出了2个引发强降水的MCS典型个例及1个长生命史MCS演变特征.     

一种台风过程雨量的相似预报方法

提出一个台风过程雨量的定点、定量预报方法。方法应用台风初始参数、历史过程的天气形势场和物理量场及数值预报产品,构造预报区域内当前时刻至未来时刻环境要素场的多元客观相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数,综合评估历史台风样本与预报台风在多元判据下的连续动态相似程度,以此找到相似样本。应用相似样本的历史雨量记录进行相似指数的权重综合,得到台风未来雨量的定点、定量预报值。预报试验表明该方法具有一定的预报技巧。     

冷空气引起的飞船主着陆场区偏北大风的特征分析及预报

分析了飞船主着陆场区1981—1999年1—4月和9—12月因冷空气而产生的偏北大风的过程中气候概况及其天气特征。通过分析发现:主着陆场区因冷空气引起的偏北大风以春季最频繁,秋、冬季最稀少;一天当中偏北大风以午后出现频率最大,午夜出现频率最少;对于不同季节的气压和温度,春、秋两季变化剧烈,冬季相对较小;在大风出现前24小时,主着陆场区的欧亚中高纬度大气环流以两槽一脊型、一槽一脊型、贝湖低压型为主;冷空气入侵前24小时,欧亚天气图上主着陆场区上游低层850hPa中高纬度有明显的冷中心,地面图场区上游冷高压中心的分布主要有3个区域:贝加尔湖西南至新疆、贝加尔湖到内蒙中北部、贝加尔湖西北部。大风前24小时在35～45°N、100～115°E等压线密集,等压线一般都在4根以上。     

The sodium tail of the Moon

During the few days centered about new Moon, the lunar surface is optically hidden from Earth-based observers. However, the Moon still offers an observable: an extended sodium tail. The lunar sodium tail is the escaping “hot” component of a coma-like exosphere of sodium generated by photon-stimulated desorption, solar wind sputtering and meteoroid impact. Neutral sodium atoms escaping lunar gravity experience solar radiation pressure that drives them into the anti-solar direction forming a comet-like tail. During new Moon time, the geometry of the Sun, Moon and Earth is such that the anti-sunward sodium flux is perturbed by the terrestrial gravitational field resulting in its focusing into a dense core that extends beyond the Earth. An all-sky camera situated at the El Leoncito Observatory (CASLEO) in Argentina has been successfully imaging this tail through a sodium filter at each lunation since April 2006. This paper reports on the results of the brightness of the lunar sodium tail spanning 31 lunations between April 2006 and September 2008. Brightness variability trends are compared with both sporadic and shower meteor activity, solar wind proton energy flux and solar near ultra violet (NUV) patterns for possible correlations. Results suggest minimal variability in the brightness of the observed lunar sodium tail, generally uncorrelated with any single source, yet consistent with a multi-year period of minimal solar activity and non-intense meteoric fluxes.     

Plasma environment of Jupiter family comets

As any comet nears the Sun, gas sublimes from the nucleus taking dust with it. Jupiter family comets are no exception. The neutral gas becomes ionized, and the interaction of a comet with the solar wind starts with ion pickup. This key process is also important in other solar system contexts wherever neutral particles become ionized and injected into a flowing plasma such as at Mars, Venus, Io, Titan and interstellar neutrals in the solar wind. At comets, ion pickup removes momentum and energy from the solar wind and puts it into cometary particles, which are then thermalised via plasma waves. Here we review what comets have shown us about how this process operates, and briefly look at how this can be applied in other contexts. We review the processes of pitch angle and energy scattering of the pickup ions, and the boundaries and regions in the comet-solar wind interaction. We use in-situ measurements from the four comets visited to date by spacecraft carrying plasma instrumentation: 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, 1P/Halley, 26P/Grigg-Skjellerup and 19P/Borrelly, to illustrate the process in action. While, of these, comet Halley is not a Jupiter class comet, it has told us the most about cometary plasma environments. The other comets, which are from the Jupiter family, give an interesting comparison as they have lower gas production rates and less-developed interactions. We examine the prospects for Rosetta at comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko, another Jupiter family comet where a wide range of gas production rates will be studied.     

A heat engine based moist convection parametrization for Jupiter

We have developed a parametrization of Jovian moist convection based on a heat engine model of moist convection. In comparison to other moist convection schemes, this framework allows the computation of the total available convective energy TCAPE and the corresponding mass flux M as dynamic variables from the mean atmospheric state. The effects of this parametrization have been investigated both analytically and numerically. In agreement with previous numerical experiments and observations, the inclusion of moist convection leads to heat and water vapor transport from the water condensation level into higher altitudes. The time development of the modeled convective events was found to be strongly influenced by a rapid reduction of kinetic energy and a subsequent lowering of the cumulus tower's top in response to convective heating. We have tested the sensitivity of the scheme to different variations in the fractional cloud coverage and under the inclusion of external radiative forcing towards a stable/unstable temperature profile. While the time development of convective events differs in response to these variations, the general moist convective heating and moistening of the upper troposphere was a robust feature observed in all experiments.     

Measurement of the radial density gradient of cosmic ray in the heliosphere by the GRAPES-3 experiment

A radial anisotropy in the flux of cosmic rays in heliosphere was theoretically predicted by Parker and others within the framework of the diffusion–convection mechanism. The solar wind is responsible for sweeping out the galactic cosmic rays, creating a radial density gradient within the heliosphere. This gradient coupled with the interplanetary magnetic field induces a flow of charged particles perpendicular to the ecliptic plane which was measured and correctly explained by Swinson, and is hereafter referred as ‘Swinson flow’. The large area GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope offers a powerful probe to measure the Swinson flow and the underlying radial density gradient of the galactic cosmic rays at a relatively high rigidity of ∼100 GV. The GRAPES-3 data collected over a period of six years (2000–2005) were analyzed and the amplitude of the Swinson flow was estimated to be (0.0644 ± 0.0008)% of cosmic ray flux which was an ∼80σ effect. The phase of the maximum flow was at a sidereal time of (17.70 ± 0.05) h which was 18 min earlier than the expected value of 18 h. This small 18 min phase difference had a significance of ∼6σ indicating the inherent precision of the GRAPES-3 measurement. The radial density gradient of the galactic cosmic rays at a median rigidity of 77 GV was found to be 0.65% AU⁻¹.     

MODIS沙尘暴判识方法与业务系统

为了利用MODIS资料对沙尘暴的范围和强度进行定量判识,应用2002--2004年多次MODIS资料,通过对沙尘暴、云、雪和沙漠光谱特征的分析,构建了定量判识沙尘暴范围和强度的两个沙尘指数.利用2002-2007年数次沙尘暴过程对沙尘指数的判别效果进行检验,表明构建的两个M()DIS沙尘指数能够有效地监测沙尘暴的范围和强度,且方法简单,适用于业务应用.针对目前西北沙尘暴遥感监测业务服务以定性图像为主,服务产品较为单一的问题,对MODIS沙尘暴判识方法进行业务化,并结合GIS进行沙尘暴影响范围的分析,开发研制了自动运行的MODIS沙尘暴监测和影响评估业务系统.系统具生成沙尘暴MODIS影像图、沙尘暴范围和强度遥感监测图、沙尘暴影响土地类型图、全国各省(直辖市)沙尘面积统计表、全国不同土地类型沙尘暴影响面积统计表、甘肃省各县沙尘暴的影响面积统计表和甘肃省不同土地类型沙尘影响面积统计表等功能,为沙尘暴定量和精细服务提供了丰富的产品.     

大质量双星系统的非守恒演化

由于大质量双星系统有强大的星风物质损失,因而在研究其结构和演化时必须考虑星风物质损失,动量损失,物质交换以及由以上原因引起的轨道参量的变化,此外,天文观测又证实,一些大质量双星系统中存在星风冲击波,有Ｘ射线辐射以及有致密天体（白矮星,中子星）的存在,因此在研究大质量双星的演化时,又会遇到在星风冲击波理论及其对演化的影响,双星系统何时会演化成为公共外壳的系统,以及双星系统中如果发生超新星爆发,是否会