浅谈台风雨性质的辨别

利用地面观测资料,以及观测经验,对台风产生的降水过程进行分析,从中鉴别出该降水是阵性还是非阵性。     

山东一次台风龙卷过程灾调及环境和天气雷达特征分析

2018年8月19日受台风“温比亚”影响,山东省临沂市遭受龙卷袭击。通过实地灾情调查,给出了该龙卷的影响范围、灾害分布和强度评估等,综合考虑不同标识物和致灾过程,评估本次龙卷强度为EF3级。分析龙卷发生的环境和天气雷达特征,结果表明：龙卷发生在低抬升凝结高度(≤300 m)、强低层垂直风切变(≥18×10^-3s^-1)、强相对风暴螺旋度(≥350 m²/s²)和较低对流有效位能(≤400 J/kg)的有利环境条件下;龙卷超级单体嵌于台风右侧螺旋雨带内,龙卷发生在中气旋与风暴后侧下沉气流区相接一侧,与龙卷涡旋特征位置对应;龙卷及地时中气旋向下延伸加强,同时风暴顶及单体质心迅速下降;若探测到低层中等强度中气旋时应发布龙卷预警,则此次过程的龙卷预警时间提前量为15～20 min。     

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海“空台”环流特征分析

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海出现了史无前例的“空台”事件。利用NCEP再分析数据集、中国气象局（CMA）台风最佳路径等资料研究了此次“空台”现象的大尺度环流背景及动力和热力学特征。使用台风潜在生成指数（DGPI）分析发现2020年7月大尺度环流背景不利于台风生成,环流系统的异常通过影响对流层垂直风切变和垂直运动限制了台风的活动。2020年7月马斯克林高压较常年明显偏西偏弱,导致索马里急流强度减弱,越赤道气流不活跃,菲律宾以东洋面和南海海域盛行一致的偏东气流,历史同期活跃在该区域的季风槽无法建立,从而不利于热带扰动的生成。北半球极涡主体偏向西半球一侧,影响东半球冷空气势力较弱,副热带高压位置偏西;南亚高压较历史同期偏强且偏东,其东侧强盛的偏东气流将洋中槽截断,在西北太平洋区域出现反气旋性环流,该区域下沉气流增强,导致副热带高压强度增强,对流层中层强烈的下沉气流抑制了台风的生成和发展。此外,受中高层环流系统异常的影响,7月菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面和南海地区环境垂直风切变较常年偏高2～4 m/s,南海部分海域偏高达4～8 m/s,同时该区域内异常偏强的下沉气流导致对流层低层相对湿度偏低,大气层...     

HRCLDAS-V1.0和ERA5海面风场对比评估分析

基于2020年中国近海31个浮标的逐小时数据,使用统计分析方法对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(HRCLDAS-V1.0)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代全球大气再分析数据(ERA5)海面风场进行了系统的检验,检验结果表明：两者在我国近海均具有较高的可信度,风速平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为1.16 m/s和1.09 m/s,风向MAE分别为23°和22°。随着风力增大两者的风速准确度均有所降低,当风力等级≥10级时,前者准确度优于后者;对于风向而言,随着风力增大,两者准确度均升高。此外,选取2020年典型的两次冷空气过程和2008号台风“巴威”过程,检验两者在不同天气过程影响下的准确度,两类融合产品均能较好地再现冷空气过程引起的风向变化,而对不同强度的冷空气过程下的风速反映存在差异;对于台风引起的大风,在风速较低时两者风速均具有不错的表现,但HRCLDAS-V1.0对峰值强度的表现优于ERA5。     

一次模态变异中尺度对流系统的模拟与分析

利用NCEP FNL分析资料及南京多普勒雷达观测,借助WRF模式,对2017年8月19日发生在长江中下游地区的一次中尺度对流系统(MCS)进行模拟和诊断分析。此次MCS组织模态PS(Parallel Stratiform)型和TS(Trailing Stratiform)型共存,开始为带状结构,最后演变为强弓状飑线。气旋切变和低空急流是此次过程的重要影响系统,而午后强烈发展的地面锋触发了此次强对流。在垂直风切变和冷池共同作用下,西侧初始对流发展为PS型模态,东侧发展为TS型模态。由于PS型模态的中低层垂直风切变发生转向,导致其消散。TS型模态附近冷池和垂直风切变相配合,且在后向入流(Rear Inflow Jets,RIJ)作用下发展成为强弓状飑线;RIJ受中低层涡旋对影响而发展增强,其中气旋式涡旋主要由涡度方程中拉伸项决定,而反气旋式涡旋则主要由倾侧项决定。     

Evaluation of ENVISAT ASAR data for sea surface wind retrieval in Hong Kong coastal waters of China

The C-band wind speed retrieval models, CMOD4, CMOD - IFR2, and CMOD5 were applied to retrieval of sea surface wind speeds from ENVISAT （European environmental satellite） ASAR （advanced synthetic aperture radar） data in the coastal waters near Hong Kong during a period from October 2005 to July 2007. The retrieved wind speeds are evaluated by comparing with buoy measurements and the QuikSCAT （quick scatterometer） wind products. The results show that the CMOD4 model gives the best performance at wind speeds lower than 15 m/s. The correlation coefficients with buoy and QuikSCAT winds are 0.781 and 0.896, respectively. The root mean square errors are the same 1.74 m/s. Namely, the CMOD4 model is the best one for sea surface wind speed retrieval from ASAR data in the coastal waters near Hong Kong.     

Numerical study on salinity stratification in the Pamlico River Estuary

The variations of current circulation, salt intrusion, and vertical stratification under different river flow and wind conditions in the Pamlico River Estuary (PRE) were investigated in this paper using a three-dimensional numerical model. The model was calibrated and verified against water level variation, temperature, and salinity variations during 2003 and 2001, respectively. Eight sensitivity tests were conducted with different river flow and wind conditions specified in the model. Model results show that salinity intruded further upstream under scenarios with low flow, downriver local wind, and remote-wind-caused water level set-up conditions. In contrast, the responses of salinity stratification to different environmental forcing functions were different in different portions of the estuary. Salinity stratification was enhanced under high flow condition at the lower part of the estuary, under upriver wind near the river mouth, under downriver wind at the upstream to middle portion of the estuary, and under remote-wind-caused water level set-up condition at the majority of the estuary except near the river mouth. Model results also show that across-channel wind tended to reduce salt intrusion and salinity stratification in the PRE through increased vertical mixing.     

Developing a building policy for the erosion zone: Solutions to some key (Dutch) questions

In those coastal communities where the most seaward strip of mainland consists of dunes, these dunes often serve as a flexible sea defence. In addition, this strip offers large potential for housing and commercial enterprises. Unfortunately, due to severe storm surges part of this strip (the erosion zone) is subject to erosion, and as a result of which any buildings or infrastructure located here, are destroyed. Therefore, as we will illustrate in this paper, a building policy for this zone should reflect a compromise between two opposite interests: exploitation of the existing potential and, prevention of an unacceptable high risk due to erosion. Accordingly, the authors have developed a framework for such a building policy on the basis of which the desirability of various different types of investments and the location within the erosion zone of such investments can be determined. The examples that are used to illustrate this framework in this paper are limited to experiences in The Netherlands as relevant data and experiences are available and relatively easy accessible here. Nevertheless, the approach as is described is generic and applicable worldwide suggesting that the discovered unused potential for exploitation is not just limited to The Netherlands.     

Comparison Study on Wind Input and Whitecapping Dissipation Expressions in Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Generated Waves

In order to investigate the effect of wind input and whitecapping dissipation on the simulation of typhoon-waves, three experiments are conducted with the latest version of SWAN （Simulating WAves Nearshore） model. The three experiments adopt the Komen, Janssens, and Westhuysen expressions for wind input and whitecapping dissipation, respectively. Besides the above-mentioned source tems, other parameterization schemes in these experiments are the same. It shows that the experiment with the Westhuysen expression result in the least simulation errors while that with the Janssens expression has the most. The results from the experiments with Komen and Westhuysen expressions show that the differenees in significant wave height （SWH） have a good correlation with the differences in dissipation energy caused by whiteeapping. This indicates that the whitecapping dissipation source term plays an important role in the resultant differences of the simulated SWH between the two experiments.     

汕尾风暴潮频率与海堤改造初探

通过研究1970-2005年间汕尾港遭受风暴潮袭击的程度,对汕尾港风暴潮增水情况进行分析,用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布两种概率统计方法分别对汕尾港不同重现期潮位值进行推算,并以此为基础结合走访相关单位和实地踏勘收集汕尾海堤历史和现状资料、风暴潮频率和海平面变化情况等,运用海堤工程设计防潮相关标准探讨汕尾已建海堤存在的问题,并针对性地提出改造建议,为汕尾市海堤的修复加固和管理提供参考.