珠三角流动人口社会融入与生活满意度期望

近年来有关流动人口社会融入和生活满意度的研究成为我国学者广泛关注的研究主题,较高的社会融入水平已成为流动人口获得生活满意度的根本。基于珠三角流动人口问卷调研数据建立两个结构方程模型,探究社会融入各维度及其影响因素的路径效应,进一步分析社会融入如何影响流动人口实现“生活满意度期望”,即感受到本地生活满意度高于老家的路径机制。结果显示：珠三角地区社会融入可分为经济融入和非经济融入两部分,但经济融入的基础作用不凸显;个体、家庭与制度等因素对社会融入各维度存在较大影响差异;社会融入影响“生活满意度期望”可归纳为“经济融入-生活满意度期望”的直接影响路径和“非经济融入-生活满意度-生活满意度期望”的间接影响路径;提高流动人口市民化和社会融入水平,不仅要关注流动人口的经济收入问题,还应注重流动人口与本地人邻里关系建设,以形成良性的城市更新与和谐的社区环境。     

The circulation of the western Mediterranean Sea in spring 2005 as inferred from observations and from model outputs

In situ observations and numerical model simulations have been used to study the circulation of the western Mediterranean Sea during April–May 2005. A hydrological survey and direct current measurements carried out in the western Mediterranean Sea are analyzed with an inverse box model. The model result is a mean circulation of the region during spring 2005 along with simultaneous evaluation of water fluxes through eight transects and associated uncertainties. In order to evaluate the consistency of the results and the weight of currents at shorter temporal and spatial scales, an inter-comparison of differently achieved results is performed. The inverse solution is evaluated against both instantaneous current measurements and simulated velocity fields from a General Circulation Model. The results obtained and the general agreement between the three approaches are encouraging and confirms that the inverse box model is a powerful instrument to investigate flow fields in wide areas of the sea. The picture coming out confirms the previous qualitative knowledge on the mean circulation at all levels, providing, in addition, robust quantitative estimations of the water masses fluxes throughout the western Mediterranean basin.     

四维变分同化技术在风暴潮数值模拟中的应用

利用区域海洋模式ROMS(Regional Ocean Modelling System)及其四维变分同化模块,建立了具有资料同化能力的东中国海风暴潮数值模式,通过将海洋站水位观测资料同化到风暴潮模式中,提高了模式对风暴潮的模拟精度。四维变分同化技术能够在整个同化时间窗口保持动力协调,使模拟结果在该时间窗口内最大程度的靠近观测,同时,得到了最优预报初始场。利用该模式,对两次温带风暴潮过程进行了数值模拟,结果表明:在同化窗口内,同化对模拟精度有明显的提高;结束同化之后,得到的最优预报初始场对临近预报精度也有一定提高。     

苏锡常地区GIS与地下水开采及地面沉降模拟模型系统集成分析

以ＧＩＳ为主控模块,选择美国国防部开发的地下水运动模拟模型系统（ＧｒｏｕｎｄｗａｔｅｒＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇＳｙｓｔｅｍ简称ＧＭＳ）和美国Ｄ．Ｃ．Ｈｅｌｍ等人开发的地面沉降模拟模型系统（Ｃｏｍｐａｃ）,进行苏锡常地区ＧＩＳ与地下水运动模拟和地面沉降模拟模型系统集成分析和设计。从ＧＩＳ、ＧＭＳ和Ｃｏｍｐａｃ概念模型供需要求,分析说明集成系统的特点和设计思路,且对集成系统的多种数据兼容性、数据分析处理及集成计算、结果可视化和构件化修改功能进行阐述。     

东亚地区地磁场的理论分析与矩谐模型

根据东亚地磁场三分量绝对测量资料,使用矩谐分析方法研究了东亚地区（北纬２０-７０,东径４０-１６０）的地磁异常场,计算出地磁异常的矩谐模型．据此模型编绘了Ｘ．ＹＺ三分量磁异常图．结果表明,在东亚的中心地区地磁异常的分布比较均匀,表现出区域特征．而在边界地区,特别是西南角和东南角一带,由于缺乏实测数据,边界效应很大．     

青藏高原东缘非刚性书斜式断层模型的物理模拟实验研究

印度板块和欧亚板块碰撞导致青藏高原垂向上整体快速隆升的同时,也导致东缘被断裂分割的块体沿着大规模走滑断裂的横向滑移,这也是青藏高原演化变形的两种端元模型:大陆逃逸模式和地壳增厚模式。本文设计了三种非刚性书斜式断层模型,运用粒子速度场成像技术(PIV, Particle Image Velocimetry)监测模型表面变形。实验结果表明,非刚性块体边界受力前后,位移场、速度、剪应变和面应变会有明显的不同。根据实验结果主要得出两点结论:①青藏高原东缘的变形是连续的,块体内部发育了冲断带、裂谷系统和右行走滑断裂系统;②自中新世以来,青藏高原东缘主要经历了两阶段的演化,早中新世-晚中新世(22～8Ma),既有左行走滑活动,也有块体的顺时针旋转,形成了近东西向的祁连山-南山冲断带、积石山冲断带、祁漫塔格冲断带、渭河地堑以及近南北向的右行走滑断裂;晚中新世(8Ma)以来,块体旋转量极少,主要以左行走滑断裂为主,发育了近南北向的冲断带和裂谷系统。     

用模式匹配法计算电阻率测井响应研究进展

数值模式匹配法是地球物理电磁场计算中的一种半数值、半解析的高效算法,相对于别的数值算法具有明显的优越性,近年来在电法测井数值模拟中得到了成功应用.本文详细地介绍了数值模式匹配法的原理和模式匹配法在电法测井的发展历程和最新应用情况,系统总结了用模式匹配法计算电阻率测井响应的思路和基本步骤,并展望了其在电法测井三维数值模拟中的应用前景.     

Polar climate system modeling in China: Recent progress and future challenges

The first fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model developed in China was released in the mid-1990s. Since then, significant advances in climate system model developments have been achieved by improving the representations of major physical processes, increasing resolutions, and including an ice-shelf component. There have also been many modeling studies in China on the polar climate system, including weather and sea-ice numerical forecasts to meet the national needs of polar scientific expeditions, assessments of the state-of-the-art coupled model performance, and process-oriented studies. Future model developments and modeling activities will need to address several big scientific questions originating from the polar climate system: i) How will polar ice mass balance evolve and affect global sea level? ii) How can we properly simulate openocean deep convection and quantify its role in driving the lower branch of the global overturning circulation? iii) How are Arctic and Antarctic connected and what caused the contrasting sea ice trends in the two polar regions over the last decades? To address these questions, polar climate system modelers will need to analyze extended observational datasets on a global scale and work together with other polar researchers to develop a more comprehensive and sustainable observation system in the polar regions.     

西北太平洋热带气旋活动影响区域大尺度环流的数值模拟研究

本文利用"模式手术"方法研究了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)对东亚—西北太平洋区域大尺度环流的影响.结果表明,夏季频繁的西北太平洋TC活动导致东亚夏季风增强,季风槽加深;西太平洋副热带高压东退,位置偏北;东亚副热带高空急流强度增强,北太平洋(东亚大陆)上急流轴偏北(偏南);热带地区(副热带地区)的对流层中低层出现异常上升气流(下沉气流),并且从低纬向高纬呈现异常上升气流和异常下沉气流交替分布特征.在中国东南沿海,TC降水导致夏季降水量明显增加;而在长江中下游和华北地区,TC活动引起的异常下沉气流使夏季降水量显著减少.因此,夏季西北太平洋TC活动对东亚—西北太平洋区域气候有显著影响.