江苏泰州市第Ⅳ承压水可采资源量的确定

为合理利用地下水资源、保护地质环境,采用传统的可采模数法对第Ⅳ承压含水层的可采资源量进行计算。结果表明,对研究程度低、资料欠缺的含水层,应用可采模数法确定可采资源量是行之有效的计算方法。     

准噶尔盆地南缘东段油气成藏条件及成藏模式

准噶尔盆地南缘东段是准噶尔盆地油气勘探的重点地区。以成盆、成烃和成藏理论为指导，应用盆地分析、有效烃源岩评价、储层（裂缝）预测、盆地模拟及流体包裹体分析等技术和方法，综合研究分析了准噶尔盆地南缘东段油气成藏条件，预测了油气资源潜力，建立了油气成藏模式。研究结果表明，该区发育上二叠统、中上三叠统和中下侏罗统三套烃源岩。最主要的烃源岩层为上二叠统，是油气资源分布的主要层位；主要储集层为柴窝堡区块的上二叠统和米泉区块的中下三叠统及中下侏罗统，其物性较差，总体为较好含气储层，是主要的勘探目的层。存在自源（侧向排烃）、它源（垂向排烃）两类油气成藏模式。柴窝堡区块北部和米泉区块仍然是有利的油气勘探地区。     

Resolution issues in numerical models of oceanic and coastal circulation

The baroclinic and barotropic properties of ocean processes vary on many scales. These scales are determined by various factors such as the variations in coastline and bottom topography, the forcing meteorology, the latitudinal dependence of the Coriolis force, and the Rossby radius of deformation among others. In this paper we attempt to qualify and quantify scales of these processes, with particular attention to the horizontal resolution necessary to accurately reproduce physical processes in numerical ocean models. We also discuss approaches taken in nesting or down-scaling from global/basin-scale models to regional-scale or shelf-scale models. Finally we offer comments on how vertical resolution affects the representation of stratification in these numerical models.     

浅谈气象短信在气象信息传播中的优势

手机气象短信是一种具有新闻性的通俗化、人性化的气象服务产品，它具有传输速度快、覆盖面广的优点，使气象信息能够更快捷、更及时、更准确、更经济地传递给社会各行各业，能够更多、更广泛、更有效地服务于社会经济发展，服务于人民群众生活。本文从气象信息传播的效果入手，阐明了气象短信在气象信息传播中的优势。     

塔里木灌区栽培红地球葡萄气候条件的分析

为塔里木灌区产业调整,发展红地球葡萄生产的气候适应性提供理论依据。利用阿拉尔市气象局1961-2003年气象资料,计算了灌区红地球葡萄生长发育阶段的主要气候指标并与参考文献进行比较,分析评价了灌区栽培红地球葡萄的气候适应性。结果表明：灌区红地球葡萄生育期间日照时数、日照百分率,≥10℃活动积温、无霜期、各生育阶段的温度,降水量等气候条件符合其生长发育的要求。灌区在生长发育阶段的气候条件适宜红地球葡萄栽培。春季的倒春寒、沙尘暴、扬沙天气和秋季的冷空气活动、降水天气对红地球葡萄的产量、品质有明显不利影响。     

Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

Skillful low visibility forecasts are essential for air-traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic and to optimize air-traffic control at international airports. For this purpose, the COBEL-ISBA local numerical forecast system has been implemented at Paris CDG international airport. This local approach is robust owing to the assimilation of detailed local observations. However, even with dedicated observations and initialization, uncertainties remain in both initial conditions and mesoscale forcings. The goal of the research presented here is to address the sensitivity of COBEL-ISBA forecast to initial conditions and mesoscale forcings during the winter season 2002–2003. The main sources of uncertainty of COBEL-ISBA input parameters have been estimated and the evaluation of parameter uncertainty on the forecasts has been studied. A budget strategy is applied during the winter season to quantify COBEL-ISBA sensitivity. This study is the first step toward building a local ensemble prediction system based on COBEL-ISBA. The conclusions of this work point out the potential for COBEL-ISBA ensemble forecasting and quantify sources of uncertainty that lead to dispersion.     

Temporal variations in surface ozone and its precursors and meteorological effects at an urban site in China

Continuous measurements of ozone and its precursors including NO, NO₂, and CO at an urban site (32°03′N, 118°44′E) in Nanjing, China during the period from January 2000 to February 2003 are presented. The effects of local meteorological conditions and distant transports associated with seasonal changed Asian monsoons on the temporal variations of O₃ and its precursors are studied by statistical, backward trajectory, and episode analyses. The diurnal variation in O₃ shows high concentrations during daytime and low concentrations during late night and early morning, while the precursors show high concentrations during night and early morning and low concentrations during daytime. The diurnal variations in air pollutants are closely related to those in local meteorological conditions. Both temperature and wind speed have significant positive correlations with O₃ and significant negative correlations with the precursors. Relative humidity has a significant negative correlation with O₃ and significant positive correlations with the precursors. The seasonal variation in O₃ shows low concentrations in late autumn and winter and high concentrations in late spring and early summer, while the precursors show high concentrations in late autumn and winter and low concentrations in summer. Local mobile and stationary sources make a great contribution to the precursors, but distant transports also play a very important role in the seasonal variations of the air pollutants. The distant transport associated with the southeastern maritime monsoon contributes substantially to the O₃ because the originally clean maritime air mass is polluted when passing over the highly industrialized and urbanized areas in the Yangtze River Delta. The high frequency of this type of air mass in summer causes the fact that a common seasonal characteristic of surface O₃ in East Asia, summer minimum, is not observed at this site. The distant transports associated with the northern continental monsoons that dominate in autumn and winter are related to the high concentrations of the precursors in these two seasons. This study can contribute to a better understanding of the O₃ pollution in vast inland of China affected by meteorological conditions and the rapid urbanization and industrialization.     

A reactive flow model of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera, New Zealand

A numerical model of the complex interaction between fluid flow, heat transfer, and chemical reactions of the shallow, coastal, hydrothermal system of Waiwera (New Zealand) is used to test the proposed conceptual model of the field.Due to declining water levels, resulting from over-exploitation during the 1970s, the objective here was to set up a coupled fluid flow and heat transfer model to help in enabling a predictive and sustainable use of the resource. The presented conceptual model of the area is based on hydraulic, thermal, and chemical field observations, which date back as far as 1863. The numerical simulations were carried out with the reactive transport code SHEMAT.The inflow of geothermal water at the bottom of the reservoir prevents seawater from entering the aquifer. If seawater intrusion occurs, it is due to over-exploitation and happens in the upper parts of the aquifer. This is in contrast to common seawater-freshwater interfaces where seawater intrudes at the bottom. The numerical investigations emphasize that, after modifications of the production regime in the late 1980s, the system is recovering again.Additionally, geochemical calculations have been conducted to answer the question if dissolution or precipitation reactions might change the hydraulic properties of the geothermal aquifer. Mixing of fresh, geothermal, and seawater, although each of them in thermodynamic equilibrium with calcite, lead to calcite precipitation or dissolution. Nevertheless, the simulations show that the hydraulic properties of the aquifer are not significantly affected by dissolution or precipitation.

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Resumen Se ha utilizado un modelo numérico de la interacción compleja entre el flujo de fluidos, la transferencia de calor y las reacciones químicas del sistema hidrotermal costero poco profundo de Waiwera (Nueva Zelanda) con el objeto de probar el modelo conceptual del área propuesto. Debido a los niveles de agua decrecientes, el objetivo de este trabajo es establecer un modelo pareado del flujo de aguas y de la transferencia de calor para colaborar en el uso predecible y sostenible del recurso. El modelo conceptual del área presentado está basado en observaciones de terreno hidráulicas, termales y químicas que datan de 1863. Las simulaciones se llevaron a cabo con el código de transporte reactivo SHEMAT. El influjo de agua geotermal al fondo del reservorio impide que el agua de mar entre en el acuífero. Si la intrusión de agua de mar se presenta, esto sucede a causa de la sobreexplotación y ocurre en las partes superiores del acuífero. Esto contrasta con las interfaces comunes de agua de mar-agua dulce donde la intrusión del agua de mar se da al fondo. Las investigaciones numéricas enfatizan que el sistema se está recuperando de nuevo luego de las modificaciones al regimen de producción a fines de los 80. Adicionalmente, los cálculos geoquímicos están dirigidos a contestar si las reacciones de disolución o precipitación pueden cambiar las propiedades hidráulicas del acuífero geotérmico. La mezcla de agua dulce, geotermal y de mar causa precipitación o disolución de calcita a pesar de que cada una de ellas se encuentra en equilibrio termodinámicao con la calcita. Sin embargo, las simulaciones muestran que las propiedades hidráulicas del acuífero no son afectadas siginificativamente por la disolución o precipitación.

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Résumé Un modèle numérique de linteraction complexe entre lécoulement de leau, le transfert de chaleur et les réactions chimiques du système hydrothermal côtier peu profond de Waiwera (Nouvelle-Zélande) est utilisé afin de tester le modèle conceptuel. Lobjectif est de bâtir un modèle couplé découlement et de transfert de chaleur afin dencourager une approche prévisioniste et une utilisation durable de la ressource en réponse à des niveaux deau en déclin qui résultent dune surexploitation depuis les années 1970. Le modèle conceptuel présenté est basé sur des observations de terrain concernant lhydraulique, la température et la composition chimique de laquifère, des observations qui peuvent dater daussi loin que 1863. Les simulations numériques ont été réalisées avec le modèle de transport SHEMAT. Lentrée deau géothermale à la base du réservoir préviens lintrusion deau de mer dans laquifère. Si lintrusion deau de mer a lieu, elle est due à la surexploitation qui a lieu dans la partie supérieure de laquifère. Cette situation est lopposée des interfaces eau de mer - eau douce traditionnelles où leau de mer pénètre par la base. Les simulations numériques suggèrent que suite aux modifications du régime de production à la fin des années 1980, le système récupère. De plus, des calculs géochimiques ont été effectués afin de répondre à la question à savoir si les réactions de dissolution et de précipitation changent les propriétés hydrauliques de laquifère géothermal. Le mélange de leau douce, leau géothermale et leau de mer, même si elle sont tous en équilibre thermodynamique avec la calcite, provoque la dissolution ou précipitation de la calcite. Néanmoins, les simulations montrent que les propriétés hydrauliques de laquifère ne sont pas significativement affectées par la dissolution ou la précipitation.

     

省以下气象业务体制、预报流程建立及预报指导技术的研究

我省气象业务体系在9210工程之后,已显示出预报体制和流程不适应新的设备与技术环境的问题,影响了天气预报业务技术的发展,制约了天气在空间,时间分辨率方面的提高,因此,如何在卫星广域网高速舆网络环境下,建立一套新的预报业和作用流程以及省,地,县三级预报技术,是非常重要的。     

Transition from confined to phreatic conditions as the factor controlling salinization and change in redox state, Upper subaquifer of the Judea Group, Israel

An increase in salinity and change from oxic to anoxic conditions are observed in the Upper subaquifer of the Judea Group in the Kefar Uriyya pumping field at the western foothills of the Judea Mountains, Israel. Hydrogeological data indicate that the change, which occurs over a distance of only a few kilometers, coincides with a transition from confined to phreatic conditions in the aquifer. The deterioration in the water quality is explained as a result of seepage of more saline, organic-rich water from above, into the phreatic "roofed" part of the aquifer. The latter is derived from the bituminous chalky rocks of the Mount Scopus Group, which confine the aquifer in its southeastern part. In this confined part, water in perched horizons within the Mount Scopus Group cannot leak down and flow westward while leaching organic matter and accumulating salts. However, upon reaching the transition area from confined to phreatic conditions, seepage to the Judea Upper subaquifer is possible, thereby allowing it to be defined as a leaky aquifer. The incoming organic matter consumes the dissolved oxygen and allows bacterial sulfate reduction. The latter accounts for the H₂S in the aquifer, as indicated by sulfur isotopic analyses of coexisting sulfate and sulfide. Thus, from an aquifer management point of view, in order to maintain the high quality of the water in the confined southeastern part of the Kefar Uriyya field, care should be taken not to draw the confined-roofed transition area further east by over pumping. Electronic Publication