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81.
用10层准拉格朗日有限区域模式对高原东侧锋生过程的数值模拟 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
本文对一次引起夏季华北暴雨的锋生过程进行了研究。在诊断分析的基础上,我们采用十层准拉格朗日有限区域模式对此个例进行了48小时的模拟,并对模拟输出结果进行解释与再次诊断。表明:(1)夏季高原东侧有时两支气流交绥很清楚,温度对比明显,与梅雨锋的情况很不相同,这在夏末尤其如此。这种温度对比区虽比冬季弱,但是,与夏季天气系统的发展及降水是有关系的。(2)模拟结果与实际观测资料是很相似的,再现了两支气流形成切变线的三维结构、移动与演变,并模拟出了在对流层中存在着深厚的24小时变温区;模拟发现,一条东北-西南向的锋生 相似文献
82.
计算机天气图图形识别 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
根据天气系统的定义和实际业务中的天气图分析规范,总结出了500、700、850hPa3层高空天气图上特征等高线,特征等温线,槽线(含切变线),高(低)中心,冷(暖)中心以及热带气旋的识别方法及其判别式,并给出了实现计算机自动识别的程序设计步骤。 相似文献
83.
肖天贵 《南京气象学院学报》1995,18(3):444-449
时间标度计算表明,西北太平洋热带气旋路径是一个无标度性的系统,其关联方差谱遵从频率的-2 ̄-3次方幂律,不同背景下的路径系统均如此。由此得到的不同季节、不同地域的热带气旋路径可预报时间尺度基本上为3 ̄4d,但异常热带气旋路径的可预报时间尺度则为1 ̄2d。 相似文献
84.
Tian Yongxiang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1995,9(3):338-348
The tropical cyclone motion is numerically simulated with a quasi-geostrophic baroclinic model.The flow field of a tropical cyclone is decomposed into its axisymmetric and asymmetric components.The relation between the ventilation flow vector and the motion vector of the tropical cyclone is investigated.The results of numerical experiments indicate:(1) There are both large-scale beta gyres and small-scale gyres in the asyrnmetric flow field.(2) The interaction between small-scale gyres and large-scale beta gyres leads to the oscillation of translation speed and translation direction for the tropical cyclone.(3) There are the large deviations between the ventilation flow vector calculated by means of Fiorino and Elsberry's method and the motion vector of tropical cyclone.(4) The ventilation flow vector computed using the improved method closely correlates with the motion vector of the tropical cyclone. 相似文献
85.
A large sample of radar reflectivity data from essentially a full summer of operation was analyzed to determine the horizontal
extents and internal structure of rain areas observed at altitude levels from 2 to 10 km. Results are given on the size distributions
of individual cells or patches defined by reflectivity thresholds approximately 4 dBz apart, on the dependence of mean size
on altitude and reflectivity threshold, and on the interior structure of the patches as characterized by the number and sizes
of higher-threshold patches contained in each echo. In a more detailed analysis of internal structure, the data were restricted
to convective echoes in which certain prescribed reflectivities, ranging from about 30 to 50 dBz, were exceeded. It was found
that the dependence of mean quantities, such as patch area, on reflectivity and altitude could be approximately described
by simple functions, but that the scatter of observations about the mean was usually large. 相似文献
86.
Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model
errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which
CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems
to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the
sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian
satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations
were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each
of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different
CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch
and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE),
and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating
the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute
BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It
was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde
observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four
CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in
the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation.
Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper
levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption
in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation
is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is
more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller
scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study
is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the
CPSs for different synoptic situations. 相似文献
87.
Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
C. V. Srinivas R. Venkatesan D. V. Bhaskar Rao D. Hari Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1465-1487
The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn
State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81,
27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary
Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity
experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity
and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found
to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes
gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity
and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution
and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly
overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the
core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The
model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm
in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm
agreed reasonably with observations. 相似文献
88.
山东省飞机增雨天气系统云水资源转化特征分析 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
利用水汽辐合法和水汽凝结法,对山东省1997-1999年春秋季18个降水过程的水汽辐合率、凝结率及降水效率等表征云水资源及其转化的特征量进行计算。分析了南方气旋、西北冷锋等主要降水天气系统以上特征量的地域分布和差别。可为人工增雨作业区域选择和航线设计提供气候背景。 相似文献
89.
90.
广州中尺度模式局地要素预报性能分析 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
该文简要介绍了华南中尺度模式的地表要素的预报诊断方案, 站点要素时间序列预报情况.用适合站点要素时间序列预报的检验方法, 检验并分析了各要素时间序列预报的性能.表明该中尺度模式的地表要素时间序列预报方案是有效的, 预报具有较高的准确性和应用价值. 相似文献