The importance of choosing precipitation datasets

Precipitation data are important for hydrometeorological analyses, yet there are many ways to measure precipitation. The impact of station density analysed by the current study by comparing measurements from the Missouri Mesonet available via the Missouri Climate Center and Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) measurements archived at the program website. The CoCoRaHS data utilize citizen scientists to report precipitation data providing for much denser data resolution than available through the Mesonet. Although previous research has shown the reliability of CoCoRaHS data, the results here demonstrate important differences in details of the spatial and temporal distribution of annual precipitation across the state of Missouri using the two data sets. Furthermore, differences in the warm and cold season distributions are presented, some of which may be related to interannual variability such as that associated with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation. The contradictory results from two widely‐used datasets display the importance in properly choosing precipitation data that have vastly differing temporal and spatial resolutions. With significantly different yearly aggregated precipitation values, the authors stress caution in selecting 1 particular rainfall dataset as conclusions drawn could be unrepresentative of the actual values. This issue may be remediated by increased spatiotemporal coverage of precipitation data.     

基于VB+MO的一种在飞机增雨效果统计评估中不规则影响区计算的适用方法

文章建立了基于VB＋MO地理信息系统二次开发技术,结合二维线源扩散方程,更加客观地计算出飞机播云不规则影响区的范围、面积与体积降水量的适用方法,并结合CA-FCM方法,实现了该技术方法在飞机增雨效果统计评估系统中自动化应用。结合吉林省飞机增雨作业实例介绍了该方法的具体应用,并且对结果进行了讨论。     

Observed Trends in Severe Weather Conditions Based on Humidex,Wind Chill,and Heavy Rainfall Events in Canada for 1953–2012

Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on public alert statements issued by Environment Canada are examined for Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidex and wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953–2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavy rainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by tipping bucket rainfall gauges are analyzed for 1960–2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events, defined as days with at least one hourly humidex value above 30, have increased significantly at more than 36% of the stations, most of which are located south of 55°N; days with nighttime hourly humidex values remaining above 20 have increased significantly at more than 52% of the stations, most of which are located south of 50°N. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill value below ?30 have decreased significantly at more than 76% of the stations across the country. No consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Because city residents are very vulnerable to severe weather events, detailed results on changes in extreme heat, extreme cold, and heavy rainfall events are also provided for ten urban centres.     

Numerical Study of the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Meiyu Precipitation over Eastern China

The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) has experienced significant urban expansion in recent years, while the Meiyu belt of China has demonstrated a decadal northward shifting trend. Thus, it is of interest to assess how urban expansion affects Meiyu precipitation and hopefully to reveal the underlying physical mechanisms involved. In this study, the urban extents over the YRD in 2001 and 2010 are derived based on land use/land cover(LULC) category data and nighttime light image data. Two parallel groups of10-summer(2001–2010) numerical simulations are carried out with the urban extents over the YRD in2001 and 2010, respectively. The results show that the urban expansion in the YRD tends to result in increased(decreased) Meiyu precipitation over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin with intensities of0.2–1.2 mm day-1. Further analysis indicates that the spatiotemporal pattern of the Meiyu precipitation change induced by the urban expansion resembles the third empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode of the observed Meiyu precipitation. Analyses of the possible underlying physical mechanisms reveal that urban expansion in the YRD leads to changes in the surface energy balance and warming(cooling) of tropospheric(stratospheric) air temperature over eastern China. Anomalous upward(downward) motion and moisture convergence(divergence) over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin occur, corresponding to the increases(decreases) of the Meiyu precipitation over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin.     

江淮梅雨长期变化对太阳活动因子的响应分析

利用美国国家海洋大气局(NOAA)地球物理数据中心(NGDC)1954-2005年太阳黑子数资料,把太阳活动作为地球气候的外强迫因子,采用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法,研究了太阳黑子数与江淮梅雨特征量及西太平洋副热带高压指数的关系。结果表明:太阳活动与江淮梅雨的相关性存在南北差异,北部呈现正相关而南部呈现负相关,且正负相关性在时间序列上保持不变;江淮南部梅雨量与太阳黑子数有稳定的11年共振周期及0.5~1年的相位滞后;西太平洋副热带高压指数与太阳黑子数也有较好的相关关系,说明太阳活动影响地球气候可能存在太阳活动—西太平洋副热带高压—江淮梅雨这样一条过程链。     

滇西北高原一次暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规资料、自动站降水资料和卫星云图资料分析了2014云南省丽江市首场区域性暴雨过程。结果表明此次过程是高空槽东移引导弱冷空气南下,同时受500 h Pa两高辐合区和700 h Pa切变线共同影响所致;孟加拉湾水汽为此次暴雨过程的主要水汽来源,同时强水汽辐合中心的存在和移动过程经过丽江是此次区域性暴雨形成的主要特征;强降水时段低层辐合高层辐散且有强烈的斜压上升运动;中尺度对流云团的合并及加强,TBB值小于220 K是此次强降水的一个特征。     

毫米波雷达与雨滴谱仪观测弱降水的对比分析

针对毫米波雷达测量的数据需要进行验证,提出利用雨滴谱反演雷达观测量:回波强度、径向速度、速度谱宽和归一化的功率谱密度数据对比毫米波雷达在最低有效观测高度处探测弱降水数据的方法及分析毫米波雷达观测量误差来源。结果表明:2种观测仪器得到的回波强度随时间变化趋势大致相同但变化幅度差异较大,误差主要源于雷达天线的积水;径向速度由于空气的上升速度、湍流等影响使两者数值有一定差异,但是变化趋势却十分接近。速度谱宽两者结果是演变趋势和变化范围都非常接近;两者归一化功率谱值曲线随速度变化趋势相似,然而由于空气的上升速度、湍流等影响导致两者曲线出现整体平移。     

2014年6月大气环流和天气分析

2014年6月大气环流特征为:北半球极涡呈双极型,较常年略偏强;西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年同期偏强,南海季风爆发较常年偏晚3候。2014年6月,全国平均气温为20.5℃,较常年同期(20.0℃)偏高0.5℃,与常年相比全国大部地区气温接近常年同期或偏高。南方地区人梅开始晚,降雨量偏少,江淮地区出现空梅。江淮、黄淮、长江中下游降水偏少20%以上。全国平均降水量为100.7 mm,较常年同期(99.3 mm)略偏多1.4%。月内出现4次主要的降水过程。南方强降水天气较多,多地遭受洪涝灾害,云南干旱有所缓解,东北、华北等地多阵性降水;全国22个省(区、市)遭受风雹灾害。全国101个站发生极端高温事件。今年第7号台风海贝思在广东登陆,是今年第一个登陆我国的台风。     

短时强降水特征统计及临近预警

利用多普勒天气雷达、探空和逐小时降水量资料,对2010 2012年,滇西南普洱、西双版纳537次短时强降水天气过程进行统计分析,建立三种短时强降水概念模型,分别是:低质心弱辐合型短时强降水、低质心辐合型短时强降水、高质心短时强降水。对比分析了不同类型短时强降水的强度特征、移速特征、生命期特征、垂直风切变特征等,探讨了辐合作用与强降水维持时间的关系、辐合切变量与雨强的关系、D_(VIL)与降水量的关系。并得出预警方法:满足如下条件时,出现短时强降水的可能较大:(1)低质心强降水中,回波无倾斜特征,强度以40~45 dBz为主,强度从低层到高层维持或缓慢减弱,大部分回波的H_((40dBz))≥H_0,且0℃层高度上40 dBz的回波的累计长度/回波移速≥0.67 h(辐合切变量≥2.2 m·s~(-1)时,累计长度/回波移速≥0.50 h),预报提前时间30~40 min。(2)高质心强降水中,强回波边缘存在宽≥3 km、强度为40~45 dBz的回波,且0℃层高度上40 dBz的回波的累计长度/回波移速≥0.47 h,预报提前时间28 min左右。此外,对短时强降水成因进行了探讨。     

两次飞机增雨作业过程数值模拟分析

利用国家气象中心GRAPES业务模式耦合混合相双参数云微物理方案,对2010年12月15日的两次飞机人工增雨作业过程进行了催化数值模拟分析。分析得出:GRAPES模式基本能给出正确的中低层天气形势场和降水的动力结构,较大降水的落区和范围基本可信,降水强度较实况偏小;按照作业实况进行催化模拟具有一定的可信度,与实况降水在较强降水区域有较好的对应性;两次播撒都取得了增加降雨量的效果,24 h平均增雨量在3~5 mm,最大增雨量达7 mm,两次播撒后增雨作业区的累计降水总量较未播撒时增加约一倍;播撒有效时段在4 h内,播撒后1~2 h雨量增加最大,增雨区域初期与播撒区域一致,随时间延长而在播撒区附近扩散;第一次播撒时,播撒冰晶消耗液态水,转化成固态水,水汽流入速度加快,向液态水转化加快,液态水迅速恢复,未出现减雨现象;第二次播撒时,云中固态水争食水汽增长,液态水得不到补充,云中上升运动减弱,自然降水阶段出现减雨现象。