一次世界罕见特大暴雨的成因初探

通过对当时的高空、地面天气形势和主要影响系统的跟踪分析 ,结合商洛地区流场、单站气象要素演变曲线 ,以及每小时一次的 GMS- 5卫星云图演变实况 ,参考地形特征 ,初步找出了 1998年 7月 9日商洛特大暴雨的形成原因。     

长江上游区域性暴雨发生前的中尺度特征

通过对长江上游 1 2次区域性暴雨发生前数小时至十余小时的探测资料进行合成分析 ,揭示了该区域暴雨天气发生前的流场、能量场、水汽场和动力场的中尺度特征。对提高该区域暴雨天气预报质量和长江流域防洪具有积极意义。     

1998年夏季松花江、嫩江流域大暴雨的水汽输送

使用松花江、嫩江流域内 94个地面气象观测站 1 998年 6～ 8月逐日降水资料和同期的 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料 ,分析了造成 1 998年夏季中国东北地区松花江、嫩江流域出现超历史纪录特大洪水大暴雨过程时的水汽输送。分析结果认为 ,关键在于南部充沛的水汽向高纬度地区的经向输送。水汽的源地可以追朔到相当远 ,主要来自西太平洋副热带高压南部低纬热带地区和印度洋洋面。制约水汽输送的条件主要是西太平洋副热带高压南北位置、低空偏南急流强弱等。     

用青藏高原1～3月OLR作我国夏季降水预报的探讨

对青藏高原１～３月ＯＬＲ与我国夏季降水进行时空综合的ＥＯＦ分析,所得高原ＯＬＲ的时空特征与其单获ＥＯＦ分析的时空特征十分相似,由此,对时空综合ＥＯＦ分析法拟合降水场的收敛速度进行了分析,探讨了用亮原１～３月ＯＬＲ预报我国夏季降水场的可行性,并对预报误差的原因进行了分析。     

登陆台风引发的暴雨过程之诊断研究

对9406（Tim）台风登陆北上并与西风带槽相互作用,引发我国东部大暴雨的过程进行了诊断研究,并与北美的个例进行了对比。发现Tim与北美的Hazel、Agnes、Camile飓风虽同属于低纬度系统北移被中纬度西风槽所“捕获”,但上述北美飓风均转变为锋面气旋,发展过程基本上与挪威学派经典的A类气旋及Petterssen定义的B类气旋相似,而Tim不属于上述两类情况。对涡度方程的诊断表明,此过程在低层除平流项外,散度项也比垂直输送项和扭转项大一个量级。而高空散度项、垂直输送项和扭转项同量级,此时扭转项的贡献也不可忽视。对水汽来源的诊断表明,对华北和东北的降水而言,尽管孟加拉湾有丰沛的水汽输送至东亚,但是南海和西太平洋的水汽输送仍有重要贡献。     

广西前汛期暴雨天气过程的特征分析

通过对1959-1999年4～6月发生在广西的暴雨天气过程特征作一较系统的分析,得出4～6月广西出现暴雨天气过程的年平均次数分别为0.98、2.39、2.78次;4～6月不出现暴雨天气过程的机率分别为0.34、0.07和0.07;4～6月出现的暴雨过程的年平均日数为1.02、2.73和4.05d。     

Chemical evolution and volcanic activity of the active crater lake of Poás volcano, Costa Rica, 1993–1997

Concentrations of chloride and sulfate and pH in the hot crater lake (Laguna Caliente) at Poás volcano and in acid rain varied over the period 1993–1997. These parameters are related to changes in lake volume and temperature, and changes in summit seismicity and fumarole activity beneath the active crater. During this period, lake level increased from near zero to its highest level since 1953, lake temperature declined from a maximum value of 70°C to a minimum value of 25°C, and pH of the lake water increased from near zero to 1.8. In May 1993 when the lake was nearly dry, chloride and sulfate concentrations in the lake water reached 85,400 and 91,000 mg l⁻¹, respectively. Minimum concentrations of chloride and sulfate after the lake refilled to its maximum volume were 2630 and 4060 mg l⁻¹, respectively. Between January 1993 and May 1995, most fumarolic activity was focused through the bottom of the lake. After May 1995, fumarolic discharge through the bottom of the lake declined and reappeared outside the lake within the main crater area. The appearance of new fumaroles on the composite pyroclastic cone coincided with a dramatic decrease in type B seismicity after January 1996. Between May 1995 and December 1997, enhanced periods of type A seismicity and episodes of harmonic tremor were associated with an increase in the number of fumaroles and the intensity of degassing on the composite pyroclastic cone adjacent to the crater lake. Increases in summit seismic activity (type A, B and harmonic tremor) and in the height of eruption plumes through the lake bottom are associated with a period of enhanced volcanic activity during April–September 1994. At this time, visual observations and remote fumarole temperature measurements suggest an increase in the flux of heat and gases discharged through the bottom of the crater lake, possibly related to renewed magma ascent beneath the active crater. A similar period of enhanced seismic activity that occurred between August 1995 and January 1996, apparently caused fracturing of sealed fumarole conduits beneath the composite pyroclastic cone allowing the focus of fumarolic degassing to migrate from beneath the lake back to the 1953–1955 cone. Changes in the chemistry of summit acid rain are correlated changes in volcanic activity regardless of whether fumaroles are discharging into the lake or are discharging directly into the atmosphere.     

片断化热带雨林土壤种子库初步研究

通过萌发实验研究片断化热带雨林的森林土壤种子库的储量、种类组成以及种子的分布。结果表明,在厚度为10cm的土壤中,受次生植被隔离的城子龙山雨林片段土壤种子库储量达到6494±155粒/m2,高于连续森林的4585±235粒/m2。而受人工植被隔离的曼仰广龙山雨林片段由于缺乏种源,土壤种子库储量较低,仅达到3505±43粒/m2。土壤种子库中的种子种类也以城子龙山为最多,达到69种。从土壤种子库的水平分布看,受次生植被影响的城子龙山和迁地保护区从林缘至林内种子储量呈下降的趋势,而需子龙山隔离程度较高、受人畜干扰严重,森林内外土壤种子库储量显差异不显著。     

雨影区对海南岛西部土地沙漠化影响的风洞实验研究

风洞系列实验证明,山体雨影区与垂直平板绕流后回流区的作用原理是一致的, 山体雨影区的宽度是山体高度的15 H。据实验结果分析,海南岛西部雨影区形成的原因是季风气流沿山脉迎风坡面爬升冷却,坡脚形成热低压,在背风面回流收敛形成暖高压,气流变性为焚风。海南岛中南部多道山脉的雨影区和中南半岛长山山脉雨影区叠加、交汇后,强化了海南岛西部的干热化并形成热带半干旱气候环境,始终影响着土地沙漠化发展演变。     

三峡船闸高边坡降雨入渗的三维数值仿真

基于反映裂隙岩体渗透张量各向异性特性的广义达西定律与相对透水率等裂隙岩体渗流基本理论,应用三维非线性有限元方法,对长江三峡工程永久船闸高陡边坡在连续降雨条件下裂隙岩体饱和-非饱和、非恒定渗流扩散过程进行了三维数值仿真分析,得出了连续降雨条件下船闸高陡边坡裂隙岩体渗流场的时空分布规律及典型降雨时段闸室混凝土衬砌上的最不利外水压力荷载,对暴雨入渗情况下闸室边墙稳定性与安全性进行了评价。分析结果表明,闸室混凝土衬砌具有较高的安全度;船闸高陡边坡内排水系统效果显著,即使遭遇长期强降雨,闸室衬砌上的外水压力荷载受降雨的影响也不大。