卡尔曼滤波技术在暴雨中期预报中的应用

在河北暴雨中期预报系统中,应用卡尔曼滤波技术对ＥＣＭＷＦ５００ｈＰａ高度预报场进行了订正。通过对ＥＣＭＷＦ５００ｈＰａ高度场的多种订正试验,分析比较未订正的和各种不同订正方案的高度预报均方根误差,证明卡尔曼滤波双因子订正对于提高暴雨预报能力是有效的。     

鄂东一次大暴雨过程的成因分析

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料、卫星云图TBB资料和逐小时地面降水资料对2012年7月12~13日发生在湖北东部地区一次大暴雨过程进行了分析,结果表明:(1)在华北横槽转竖带动冷空气南下的过程中,中低层有中尺度低涡的发生发展,中尺度低涡的稳定维持与副高外围西南暖湿气流共同作用,导致了这次强降雨的发生。(2)鄂东强降水主要由两个中尺度暴雨云团影响,前一个暴雨云团为MCC,受副高外围西南气流向偏东方向移动,后一个暴雨云团受冷空气影响向东南方向移动。(3)低层露点锋与本次强降水天气过程的发生发展有较好的对应,锋区北侧偏北气流穿越露点锋,使得低层气旋式涡度增大、辐合加强。(4)本次过程干湿空气的相互作用形成能量锋区,锋区的维持和加强导致了强降水的发生。     

The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding Event: Part 1—Climatological aspects and hydrometeorological features

In June 2013, excessive rainfall associated with an intense weather system triggered severe flooding in southern Alberta, which became the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This article provides an overview of the climatological aspects and large‐scale hydrometeorological features associated with the flooding event based upon information from a variety of sources, including satellite data, upper air soundings, surface observations and operational model analyses. The results show that multiple factors combined to create this unusually severe event. The event was characterized by a slow‐moving upper level low pressure system west of Alberta, blocked by an upper level ridge, while an associated well‐organized surface low pressure system kept southern Alberta, especially the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, in continuous precipitation for up to two days. Results from air parcel trajectory analysis show that a significant amount of the moisture originated from the central Great Plains, transported into Alberta by a southeasterly low level jet. The event was first dominated by significant thunderstorm activity, and then evolved into continuous precipitation supported by the synoptic‐scale low pressure system. Both the thunderstorm activity and upslope winds associated with the low pressure system produced large rainfall amounts. A comparison with previous similar events occurring in the same region suggests that the synoptic‐scale features associated with the 2013 rainfall event were not particularly intense; however, its storm environment was the most convectively unstable. The system also exhibited a relatively high freezing level, which resulted in rain, rather than snow, mainly falling over the still snow‐covered mountainous areas. Melting associated with this rain‐on‐snow scenario likely contributed to downstream flooding. Furthermore, above‐normal snowfall in the preceding spring helped to maintain snow in the high‐elevation areas, which facilitated the rain‐on‐snow event. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relating hydrogeomorphic properties to stream buffering chemistry in the Neversink River watershed,New York State,USA

Monitoring the effects of acidic deposition on aquatic ecosystems in the Northeastern US has generally required regular measurements of stream buffering chemistry (i.e. acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) and calcium Ca²⁺), which can be expensive and time consuming. The goal of this paper was to develop a simple method for predicting baseflow buffering chemistry based on the hydrogeomorphic properties of ten nested watersheds in the Neversink River basin (2·0–176·0 km²), an acid‐sensitive basin in the Catskill Mountains, New York State. The tributaries and main reach watersheds have strongly contrasting mean baseflow ANC values and Ca²⁺ concentrations, despite rather homogeneous vegetation, bedrock geology, and soils. A stepwise regression was applied to relate 13 hydrogeomorphic properties to the mean baseflow ANC values and Ca²⁺ concentrations. The regression analysis showed that watersheds with lower ANC values had a higher mean ratio of ‘quickflow’ runoff to precipitation during 20 non‐snowmelt runoff events (referred to as mean runoff ratio). The mean runoff ratio could explain at least 80% of the variability in mean baseflow ANC values and Ca²⁺ concentrations among the ten watersheds. Greater mean runoff ratios also correlated with steeper slopes and greater drainage densities, thus allowing the prediction of baseflow ANC values (r² = 0·75) and Ca²⁺ concentrations (r² = 0·77) with widely available spatial data alone. These results indicate that hydrogeomorphic properties can predict a watershed's sensitivity to acid deposition in regions where the spatial sources of stream buffering chemistry from the bedrock mineralogy and soils are fairly uniform. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Study of the Characteristics of the Low-Frequency Circulation over the Tibetan Plateau and its Association with Precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley in 1998

The propagation characteristics of the atmospheric low frequency (LF, 30--60 days) oscillation (LFO) around the Tibetan Plateau from troposphere to stratosphere and its relationship with the floods over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the summer of 1998 are studied, based on the GAME dataset from Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)/Japan Meteorological Agency, the TRMM satellite rainfall and the 730-station precipitation over China. The results show that the zonal propagation direction of LFOs in horizontal winds varies with seasons in the troposphere during May to August in 1998. The eastward propagation of LFOs is remarkable before the start of the rainy season in the Tibetan Plateau and the eastern Asian continent, while the westward propagation is significant after the start date. The northward LFOs from the south side of the plateau and the southward LFOs from the north are both significant before and after the start date. The plateau is a LFO sink in the meridional and zonal directions, but the west part of it is an intensifying area for the continual westward LFOs only after the start of the rainy season. Besides, the strongest LFOs occur at the tropopause (100 hPa) and rapidly decay after entering the stratosphere. The rainfall over the mid-low reaches of Yangtze River in the summer of 1998 exhibits two LFO cycles. According to the phases of the two rainfall LFO cycles, the composite analysesof precipitation distribution, LF circulations at 500 and 100 hPa,and LF vertical motion along 30°N are performed. It is the joint effect of the mid-upper tropospheric strong 30--60-day filtered cyclone (anticyclone) over the eastern plateau and the LFO anticyclone (cyclone) over the west subtropical Pacific that induces the whole layer LF descending (ascending) motion over the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River, which provides the favorable condition for the break (maintenance) of precipitation.     

Use of mixed bivariate distributions for deriving inter‐station correlation coefficients of rain rate

Even though rain rate is notorious for its spatial and temporal intermittency, its effect on the second‐order statistics of rain rate, especially the inter‐station correlation coefficients, has not been intensively evaluated before. This study has derived and compared the inter‐station correlation coefficient of rain rate for three cases of data: (1) only the positive measurements at both locations; (2) the positive measurements at either one or both locations; (3) all the measurements including zero measurement at both locations. For these three cases, the inter‐station correlation coefficients are analytically derived by applying the mixed bivariate log‐normal distribution. As an application example, the model parameters are estimated using the rain rate data collected at the Geum River basin, Korea, and the resulting inter‐station correlation coefficients are evaluated and compared with those estimated by applying the Gaussian distribution. We could find that highly biased inter‐station correlation coefficients are unavoidable when simply estimating them under the assumption of Gaussian distribution, or even when using the log‐transformed rain rate data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial variability in precipitation within the Hilton Experimental Site,Shropshire, UK (1982–2006)

Accurate precipitation measurements are essential for many hydrological and hydrogeological management strategies. Precipitation at the Hilton Experimental Site has been regularly measured since 1982. This paper summarises 157 rain gauge years of precipitation data, recorded between 1982 and 2006, using 11 rain gauges on the 0·5 hectare site. Precipitation varied markedly within the site. Precipitation totals were notably different between two adjacent rain gauges, the mean difference being 0·3% of the total. Variations in mean annual precipitation within the site were ?8%. Spatial variations in wind turbulence appeared to be the main factor influencing intra‐site variability. Precipitation totals varied with gauge exposure, with surface level gauges receiving ?5·9% more precipitation than standard rain gauges, the difference being less lower down the slope. On a steep (～15° ) slope, basal sections had 2·5–7·9% more precipitation. Upper gauges received less, probably due to turbulence as increased exposure on the top of the slope resulted in precipitation being carried over the gauge orifice. Results confirm that due attention must be given to the inherent variability of precipitation amounts when calculating precipitation inputs. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow

This paper presents the development and testing of a new method to estimate daily snowfall from precipitation and associated temperature records. The new method requires two variables; the threshold mean daily air temperature at which 50% of precipitation is considered snow, and the temperature range within which mixed precipitation can occur. Sensitivity analyses using 15 climate stations across south‐western Alberta, Canada, and ranging from prairie to alpine regions investigates the sensitivity of those two variables on mean annual snowfall (MAS), the coefficient of determination, and the MAS‐weighted coefficient of determination. Existing methods, including the static threshold method, one linear transition method used by Quick and Pipes, and the Leavesley method employed in the PRMS hydrological modelling system are compared with the new method, using a total of 963 years of daily data from the 15 climate stations used for the sensitivity analyses. Four different approaches to using the two input variables (threshold temperature and range) were tested and statistically compared: mean annual variables based on the 15 stations, mean annual variables for each station, mean monthly variables for each station, and a sine curve representing seasonal variation of the variables. In almost all cases the proposed new method resulted in higher MAS‐weighted coefficients of determination, and, on average, they were significantly different from those of other methods. The paper concludes with a decision tree to help decide which method and approach to apply under a variety of data availabilities. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

清远地区前汛期雷雨大风和冰雹天气的物理量指标

选取清远地区7个国家气象观测站2006—2015年前汛期的地面观测记录资料和清远、梧州探空站的t-logp探空资料,统计分析沙氏指数SI等8个物理量对雷雨大风及冰雹天气预报的指示作用。结果表明:(1)清远探空站数据中,整层比湿积分IQ、沙氏指数SI、瑞士雷暴1(SWISS00)对雷雨大风天气预报的指示性较好;整层比湿积分IQ、瑞士雷暴1(SWISS00)和0℃层高度对冰雹天气预报的指示性较好。(2)梧州探空站数据中,整层比湿积分IQ、抬升指数LI和沙氏指数SI对雷雨大风天气预报的指示性较好;整层比湿积分IQ、0和-20℃层高度、潜在下冲气流指数(MDPI)和强天气威胁指数SWEAT对冰雹天气预报的指示性较好。合理利用物理量指标对清远地区前汛期雷雨大风和冰雹天气的潜势预报具有一定的可行性。     

近10年北京地区极端暴雨事件的基本特征

利用北京地区5 min间隔的自动气象站降水观测资料,SA雷达观测资料、FY-2卫星TBB(Temperature of Black Body)资料、常规气象探空资料和1°×1°NCEP/NCAR最终分析资料,对2006—2013年发生的10次极端暴雨事件(14个区(县)中,任意一个区县代表站24 h内降水量≥ 100 mm,且暴雨区内至少有一个自动气象站降水强度≥ 40 mm/h)的基本特征进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)长生命周期的单体或多单体组织合并的中尺度对流系统(第Ⅰ类中尺度对流系统)形成的暴雨中心一般位于北京西部山前地区或中心城区,这种分布与低空偏东气流的地形强迫作用或城市强迫作用有关;"列车效应"对应的多单体中尺度对流系统(第Ⅱ类中尺度对流系统)形成的极端暴雨事件往往与两次不同属性的降水过程有关:锋前暖区对流过程和锋面附近的对流过程。因此,降水分布往往平行于低空急流轴或锋面。(2)第Ⅰ类中尺度对流系统形成的极端暴雨过程局地性更强,全市平均降水量远小于暴雨量级(50 mm),其中,由混合型降水主导的极端暴雨事件一般是由几乎不移动的长生命周期单体反复生消造成的,对流高度相对较低;而深对流主导的极端暴雨事件一般由多单体组织、合并、加强造成,由于对流单体的上冲云顶很高,最低TBB一般低于-55℃,这类极端暴雨事件的短时强降水具有显著的间歇性:第一阶段的强降水与单体对流发展过程对应,以后的短时强降水与对流单体组织、合并过程对应。(3)"列车效应"对应的多单体中尺度对流系统暴雨过程,初始阶段一般表现为相互独立的两个对流带,即与锋面系统对应的对流带和与低空急流轴对应的暖区对流带,随着锋面对流带逐渐向暖区对流带移动,低空冷空气逐渐侵入到暖区对流带中,两条对流云带逐渐合并,对流活动进一步发展;或者由于暖区对流带截断锋面对流带的水汽入流,造成锋面对流减弱,而暖区对流带组织性更强,发展更加旺盛。与第Ⅰ类中尺度对流系统形成的极端暴雨过程不同,这类暴雨过程往往造成全市平均降水量达到暴雨(≥ 50 mm)甚至大暴雨(≥ 100 mm)。(4)不同类型的极端暴雨过程,大尺度水汽输送条件不同:"列车效应"造成的暴雨过程多数情况下由源于孟加拉湾和源于西太平洋的两支暖湿季风气流共同构成,大尺度水汽供应充沛;而第Ⅰ类中尺度对流系统中的混合型降水造成的暴雨过程的水汽来源主要与低空东南气流造成的近海水汽输送有关;第Ⅰ类中尺度对流系统中的深对流主导的深对流暴雨过程中整层水汽含量并不大,多数情况下水汽输送仅出现在对流层低层甚至仅在近地面层内。(5)大多数情况下,无论哪类性质的极端暴雨过程,在强降水发生时刻,雷达强回波高度一般在4 km以下,仅有极个别时刻强回波中心高于5 km。极端暴雨过程中,环境大气对流有效位能(CAPE)的大小一般与对流发展高度(雷达回波顶高)具有较好的对应关系,但与强降水发生时刻回波强度、最强回波高度、降水强度的对应关系较差。