甘肃河西中部地区“87.6”罕见暴雨成因分析

对１９８７年６月１０日２０时至１２日０２时发生在甘肃省河西走廊中部荒漠戈壁地区罕见暴雨天气过程的大尺度环流形势和天气系统的分析表明，南支低槽发展东移，与之对应的地面冷锋侵入柴达木低涡，两者相互作用，共同发展东移，加之河西走廊低空东风气流的形成并输送大量的水汽和不稳定能量，是造成河西大范围普降大－暴雨的主要天气尺度系统；而锋面移入，触发不稳定能量释放，导致中尺度强对流系统发展，是直接造成金昌市罕见局地大暴雨的中尺度系统。     

Areal extent and vertical structure of radar weather echoes at Montreal

A large sample of radar data from the period May–August 1976 was analyzed to provide information on the total areal coverage of precipitation echoes at 1-km steps in altitude ranging from 2 km up to 10 km. A transformation based on known statistics of surface rainfall rate was employed to express this information in terms of the probability of certain reflectivities being exceeded at a randomly chosen point at a given altitude. The same data base was used to construct a family of average vertical profiles of precipitation reflectivity. The profiles were conditioned by the reflectivity value at the lowest level (2 km), thus providing a basis for estimating the reflectivity aloft, given the low level or surface rainfall rate. Analyses of this kind have been reported for other geographical locations and for a variety of applications, such as hydrology, rain effects on earth-space radio propagation, and precipitation modeling. Similarities in the results from these two quite different analysis procedures, possibly not hitherto recognized, were found in the present study.     

Characteristic features of atmospheric aerosols over India and their role in warm rain process

Atmospheric aerosols are a crucial link in the physical processes, involved in the formation and growth of precipitating clouds. Extensive aerosol measurements in surface air and in the lower troposphere were made at inland and coastal stations of different regions in India. At inland stations, the hygroscopic fraction of the total aerosol content is found to be a useful characteristic for distinguishing between the monsoon and summer airflow, as well as an indicator for a good or a badly developed monsoon. At coastal stations, however, this feature is not observed.Measurements as a function of height brought out that the aerosol varied widely in air over different seasons. During monsoon, the hygroscopic fraction was found highest at the cloud base level and was closely linked to the development of rain. Details of these investigations are presented.     

The Use of Radar and Gauge Measurements to Estimate Areal Precipitation for Several Czech River Basins

Two methods estimating areal precipitation for selected river basins in the Czech Republic are compared. The methods use radar precipitation (the radar-derived precipitation estimate based on column maximum reflectivity) and data from 81 on-line rain gauges routinely provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Data from a dense network of climatological rain gauges (the average inter-station distance is approximately 8 km), the measurements of which are not available in real time, are utilized for the verification. The mean areal precipitation, which is used as the ground truth, is obtained by the weighted interpolation of the dense rain gauge network. The accuracy of the methods is evaluated by the root-mean-square-error.The first, pixel-related method merges radar precipitation with rain gauge data to obtain adjusted pixel values. The adjusting procedure combines radar and gauge values in one variable that is interpolated into all radar pixels. The adjusted pixel precipitation is calculated from radar precipitation and from the value of the combined variable. The areal estimates are determined by adding the corresponding pixel values. The second method applies a linear regression model to describe the relationship between the areal precipitation (dependent variable) and its estimates, which are determined from (i) non-adjusted radar precipitation and (ii) on-line rain gauge measurements interpolated into pixels. Classical linear regression, ridge regression and robust regression models are tested.Both the methods decrease the average areal error in comparison with the reference method, which uses the on-line rain gauge data only. The decrease is about 10% and 15% for the pixel-related and regression methods, respectively. When the estimates of the pixel-related method are included as predictors into the regression method then the improvement of accuracy is almost 25%.     

对亚洲两支越赤道气流与华南暴雨的关系探讨

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和TBB资料对华南暴雨与亚洲两支越赤道气流的关系进行了探讨。分析结果表明华南暴雨与亚洲两支越赤道气流的变化联系紧密 ;在华南暴雨发生前 ,在索马里和 10 5°E赤道附近存在经向风扰动增强现象。阿拉伯海地区和孟加拉湾地区的风速在华南暴雨发生前逐渐增强。另外还发现华南暴雨发生前华南地区存在季风涌过程。     

东南亚夏季强降水的基本物理量场的诊断分析

本文对东南亚夏季5月、6月、7月份的四个强降水过程进行研究，通过对其相应的基本物理量场的作诊断分析，研究东南亚地区夏季强降水的物理机制，为东南亚地区的强降水分析和预报提供依据。     

维他克河一次山洪、泥石流初步分析

2003年6月21日，维他克河发生了特大山洪，洪峰流量排在有正式水文资料记载以来的第二位，部分河沟发生泥石流，给流域造成了严重灾害。本文根据流域实测降水、流量及气象卫星云图等资料，对此次洪水、泥石流过程的水文特性和气象成因作了初步分析。     

西安市水资源及其可持续利用对策分析

采用1960年至2002年山西省21个气象站的夏季(6月至8月)降水、气温资料，计算了降水距平百分率、Z指数区域旱涝指标及考虑了气温、降水的干旱指数，并进行了对比分析，通过大量试验研究提出了一种适合山西的旱涝指数，以此划分了山西夏季的旱涝年，并研究了与全国雨带的关系。     

区域性暴雨过程的中尺度数值预报效果检验

本文从多个角度分析了黑龙江省中尺度数值预报系统对2003年8月22-23日区域性暴雨过程预报的质量。分析结果认为：该模式的降水预报对降水过程的开始、结束、落区和强度的预报都有一定的参考价值；全省82个站的分级降水预报的成功率可以达到百分之五十左右；扣除气候概率预报和盲目预报的成功机会，这个结果能够表现出一定的预报技术；根据TS评分、漏报率和空报率的统计，模式直接输出的小雨和中雨预报结果很有价值，大雨还可以参考应用，而仅靠简单插值直接利用输出结果作暴雨预报是很难获得成功的，应该利用该模式同时输出和计算的物理量进行再分析确定暴雨的发生和落区。     

2003年6月29日至7月2日淮河梅雨锋大暴雨过程诊断分析

对 2 0 0 3年 6月 2 9日至 7月 2日梅雨期淮河流域一次大暴雨过程进行了天气动力学诊断分析。结果表明 :这次大暴雨过程是在双阻型梅雨天气形势下发生的 ,梅雨锋锋区热力学特性和动力结构多变 ,一般具有斜压性结构 ,但有时又表现出准正压性结构 ;梅雨锋的维持和加强主要依赖于低空强西南暖湿气流在梅雨锋区的辐合抬升作用提供水汽和能量 ,强降雨区位于水汽通量大值区北侧强梯度区中。