重庆一次暴雨过程的诊断分析

为揭示2012年5月11-12日重庆暴雨过程的发生发展机制,寻找重庆地区暴雨预报方法,利用国家卫星气象中心的降水量产品数据集和NCEP格点再分析资料,对这次暴雨进行了天气形势分析,并从动力和水汽条件、水汽螺旋度和水汽散度通量及不稳定指数等方面进行了诊断分析。结果表明,短波槽东移南下和西南涡东移北上是造成此次暴雨过程的主要原因;高空槽前脊后的正涡度平流,有利于大气的抬升运动;中层(700 h Pa)的西南暖湿气流为此次暴雨过程提供了水汽和能量,促进并维持对流的强烈发展;水汽螺旋度高值区和水汽散度通量低值区都与强降水区域有较好的对应关系,且有较好的时间相关性,这对强降水落区和降水系统的移动发展有一定的指示意义;低层暖湿气流抬升与高层冷空气交汇触发了此次暴雨天气过程;K指数和A指数对于暴雨的形成和发展有一定的预报意义。     

新标准下江淮梅雨特征的分析

根据中国气象局2014年印发的《梅雨监测业务规定》中的入、出梅标准,以及江淮地区72个气象站1960—2012年近53 a逐日气象资料,采用经验正交分解(EOF)方法和相似方法分析了江淮梅雨降水的时空变化,并以温度、湿度和雨日频率作为判据,将梅雨划分为典型和非典型两类,对其变化特征进行了讨论。结果表明:江淮梅雨期内,雨日比例减少,阴天比例增加,且发生在白天的降水比例上升;此外,中雨的贡献率显著减小,大暴雨的贡献率显著增加。相同年代际内,全区一致枯型梅雨与南枯北丰型梅雨出现概率相当,全区一致丰型梅雨则与南丰北枯型和南北丰中部枯型梅雨发生概率相近。江淮梅雨的典型程度(高湿高温多雨)在时间尺度上呈减弱趋势,非典型程度整体呈增加趋势,其中以所占比例最大的低湿高温少雨型的增长最为明显,且这种变化趋势在整个江淮地区表现一致。空间尺度上,典型梅雨发生的范围存在缩小趋势,非典型梅雨发生的范围则有扩大趋势。即近53 a来,江淮梅雨在时空尺度上均发生了由典型向非典型的转移,且2000s以来这种转变尤其显著。     

2013年浙江两次汛期暴雨过程对比分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2013年4月29日(4.29)和6月6日(6.6)浙江两次汛期暴雨的天气形势场、热力动力和水汽条件进行对比分析,研究浙江暴雨的机理,为暴雨预报提供依据。结果表明:1)4.29暴雨影响系统高层为西风槽、低层为低涡;6.6暴雨高低层影响系统均为低涡。2)4.29暴雨高空西风急流强,垂直方向上存在正向环流圈,低层辐合对应高层辐散;6.6暴雨高空西风弱,垂直方向上无明显环流圈,散度场分布较复杂。3)4.29暴雨主要水汽来源为孟加拉湾、南海-西太平洋;6.6暴雨主要水汽来源为孟加拉湾、南海-西太平洋和东海。4)4.29暴雨过程中锋区呈东西走向,有较强冷空气侵入,而6.6暴雨过程中锋区呈东南-西北走向,只有较弱冷空气侵入。     

Radiative effects on torrential rainfall during the landfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013)

Cloud microphysical and rainfall responses to radiative processes are examined through analysis of cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments of Typhoon Fitow(2013) during landfall.The budget analysis shows that the increase in the mean rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds corresponds to the decrease in accretion of raindrops by cloud ice in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds,but the rainfall is insensitive to radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds.The increases in the mean rainfall resulting from the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds correspond to the enhanced net condensation.The increases(decreases) in maximum rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence(absence) of radiative effects of ice clouds,or the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds in the presence(absence) of radiative effects of water clouds,correspond mainly to the enhancements(reductions) in net condensation.The mean rain rate is a product of rain intensity and fractional rainfall coverage.The radiation-induced difference in the mean rain rate is related to the difference in rain intensity.The radiation-induced difference in the maximum rain rate is associated with the difference in the fractional coverage of maximum rainfall.     

黑龙江省非典型环境条件强迫下短时强对流天气特征研究

本文利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站加密观测资料、FY-2卫星云图、新一代天气雷达及NECP的1°×1°再分析资料对黑龙江省的2006-2014年冰雹和2008-2014年的强降水在非典型环境条件下表现出的局地要素特征以及卫星和雷达特征进行分析。分析结果显示：较大的对流有效位能、低层强暖空气为对流发生提供了热力不稳定;700hPa湿区配合冰雹500hPa干区和强降水低层弱水汽辐合使得对流具备了有利的水汽垂直分布条件;最终在地面局地辐合的触发下产生了对流;冰雹有较高的0℃层高度和较低的气压;冰雹和强降水有利的海拔高度分别在200-500m和100-200m。卫星云图和雷达上的表现往往比较孤立,移动较快,产生的时间和位置与两个小云块或小云块与大云团合并的时间及位置一致,低层水汽辐合明显时可能会伴有大的云团。雷达回波上冰雹云但很难探测到钩状回波等特征回波,强降水多为原地生消火或列车效应产生。     

台湾地区湖库水酸化之研究

本文旨在探讨酸雨对台湾地区湖泊、水库等自然水域酸化的影响程度。主要内容为建立水域酸化程度之资料，以及不ＰＨ值湖水中，铝离子释放的情形。     

Microwave Remote Sensing of Tropical Cyclones from Space

This article reviews several microwave instruments employed in research and analysis of tropical cyclones (TCs), typhoons, and hurricanes. The instruments discussed include scatterometers, microwave radiometers, synthetic aperture radars (SARs), and rain radar from space. Examples of the particular contribution by one or more of these instruments in analysis of several storms illustrate the comprehensive new views provided by the SeaWinds scatterometers, the detailed high-resolution wind field provided by RADARSAT-1 SAR, particularly inside and in the vicinity of hurricane “eyes,” and the presence of secondary flows in the region between rainbands in TCs. The high spatial resolution of precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's rain radar, combined with scatterometer or SAR data, give a significant improvement in the details that can be seen from space, at the surface, and in the precipitating areas of TCs. The microwave instruments provide a penetrating view below the upper level cirrus clouds. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

台风Rananim登陆后引发强降水成因和暴雨分布的诊断分析

首先对2004年第14号台风Rananim登陆后造成的强降水过程按主要影响系统进行了划分,指出第一阶段的降水是由台风本身环流产生的,第二阶段的降水则是台风残留低压与中纬度西风带环流系统共同作用的结果。然后针对暴雨在台风登陆点南北两侧非对称分布的特点进行了重点分析,结果表明,台风暴雨的非对称分布与台风本身的非对称结构、南北两侧不同的水汽输送以及中尺度地形有密切关系。同时利用湿位涡分析方法诊断了台风暴雨时空分布特征,发现湿位涡负值中心与暴雨中心存在较好对应关系,而且其中心数值的绝对值大小与1 h降水强度存在正相关关系,从而说明湿位涡负值中心可以作为降水时空分布的重要指标,为台风暴雨预报提供一种思路。     

0010号台风"碧利斯"导致莆田市持续性暴雨的成因分析

通过对2000年8月22－27日莆田市持续性暴雨的成因进行诊断分析发现，此次暴雨过程不仅与台风核心云团降水过程关系密切，而且与西南季风和越赤道气流引发的降水过程关系密切，从而为台风暴雨预报提供依据。     

Sea State and Rain: A Second Take on Dual-Frequency Altimetry

TOPEX and Jason were the first two dual-frequency altimeters in space, with both operating at K_u- and C-band. Thus, each gives two measurements of the normalized backscatter, σ⁰, (from which wind speed is calculated) and two estimates of wave height. Departures from a well-defined relationship between the K_u- and C-band σ⁰ values give an indication of rain. This study investigates differences between the two instruments using data from Jason's verification phase. Jason's K_u-band estimates of wave height are ∼1.8% less than TOPEX's, whereas its σ⁰ values are higher. When these effects have been removed the root mean square (rms) mismatch between TOPEX and Jason's K_u-band observations is close to that for TOPEX's observations at its two frequencies, and the changes in σ⁰ with varying wave height conditions are the same for the two altimeters. Rain flagging and quantitative estimates of rain rate are both based on the atmospheric attenuation derived from the σ⁰ measurements at the two frequencies. The attenuation estimates of TOPEX and Jason agree very well, and a threshold of-0.5 dB is effective at removing the majority of spurious data records from the Jason GDRs. In the high σ⁰ regime, anomalous data can be caused by processes other than rain. Consequently, for these low wind conditions, neither can reliable rain detection be based on altimetry alone, nor can a generic rain flag be expected to remove all suspect data.