2018年一次非典型梅雨锋暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规地面气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1°网格点逐6 h再分析资料,对2018年6月20日浙江省一次暴雨过程的主要环流系统、等熵位涡、垂直螺旋度等进行了天气动力学诊断分析。结果表明：850 hPa低涡切变、对流层中层冷空气、200 hPa南亚高压、副热带高压是此次暴雨过程发生的主要影响系统;700 hPa上的正垂直螺旋度中心对暴雨的发生有良好的指示意义;等熵位涡的演变和形态对冷空气活动有较好的视踪作用,等熵位涡中心两侧气流辐合,有利于低压系统发展,高层等熵位涡与冷空气活动有较好的对应关系,等熵位涡大值区偏南侧的移动与强降水落区有较好的对应关系。     

清华大学CIESM模式及其参与CMIP6的方案

世界气候研究计划（WCRP）组织实施第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6),清华大学联合国内多家单位,通过多年的模式研发,完成联合地球系统模式（CIESM),除了CMIP6的气候诊断、评估和描述试验（DECK）和历史气候模拟试验（Historical),模式拟参与6个CMIP6子计划。通过介绍该模式的基本情况及其参与的试验子计划,为今后模式试验数据使用者提供参考。     

Evaluation of 2-m temperature and precipitation products of the Climate Forecast System version 2 over Iran

Using a continuous multi-decadal simulations over the period 1981–2010, subseasonal to seasonal simulations of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) over Iran against the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset are evaluated. CFSv2 shows cold biases over northern hillsides of the Alborz Mountains with the Mediterranean climate and warm biases over northern regions of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea with a dry climate. Magnitude of the model bias for 2-m temperature over different regions of Iran varies by season, with the least bias in temperate seasons of spring and autumn, and the largest bias in summer. The model bias decreases as temporal averaging period increases from seasonal to annual. The forecast generally produces dry and wet biases over dry and wet regions of Iran, respectively. In general, 2-m temperature over Iran is better captured than precipitation, but the prediction skill of precipitation is generally high over western Iran. Averaged over Iran, observations indicated that 2-m temperature has been gradually increasing during the studied period, with a rate of approximately 0.5 °C per decade, and the upward trend is well simulated by CFSv2. Averaged over Iran, both observations and simulation results indicated that precipitation has been decreasing in spring, with averaged decreasing trends of 0.8 mm (observed) and 1.7 mm (simulated) per season each year during the period 1981–2010. Observations indicated that the maximum increasing trend of 2-m temperature has occurred over western Iran (nearly 0.7 °C per decade), while the maximum decreasing trend of annual precipitation has occurred over western and parts of southern Iran (nearly 45 to 50 mm per decade).     

MICAPS系统的二次开发与应用

立足于预报业务技术体制改革和本地预报业务服务工作实际需要 ,对MICAPS系统进行综合性二次开发 ,使MICAPS系统发挥更大功效 ;为预报员提供更加方便、快捷和具有本地特色的人机交互工作平台     

CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOSCALE FLOOD-MAKING TORRENTIAL RAIN SYSTEM SIMULATED BY HIGH RESOLUTION LIMITED AREA MODEL—NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A HEAVY RAIN PROCESS DURING MEIYU SEASON IN 1991

An experimental work on the transplant of high resolution limited area model(HIRLAM) isfirstly introduced into China.For the implementation,first of all is to adjust a new geographicalcoordination and to remove the instability caused by the Tibetan Plateau,the roof of the world.Then,we have applied this model to simulate a flood-making torrential rain process which occurredin the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in July 1991.That revealed the formation,development andmovement of a mesoseale heavy rain system which had made a disastrous flood event in the middleand lower reaches of Changjiang River Valley.The result encourages us to use the HIRLAM for the researches on the Meiyu belt,the salientfeature of precipitation of East Asia,and the numerical prediction of heavy rains in China.     

Seismic response of isolated bridges with soil–structure interaction

The modern transportation facilities demand that the bridges are to be constructed across the gorges that are located in seismically active areas and at the same time the site conditions compel the engineers to rest the pier foundation on soil. The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of soil–structure interaction (SSI) on the peak responses of three-span continuous deck bridge seismically isolated by the elastomeric bearings. The emphasis has been placed on gauging the significance of physical parameters that affect the response of the system and identify the circumstances under which it is necessary to include the SSI effects in the design of seismically isolated bridges. The soil surrounding the foundation of pier is modelled by frequency independent coefficients and the complete dynamic analysis is carried out in time domain using complex modal analysis method. In order to quantify the effects of SSI, the peak responses of isolated and non-isolated bridge (i.e. bridge without isolation device) are compared with the corresponding bridge ignoring these effects. A parametric study is also conducted to investigate the effects of soil flexibility and bearing parameters (such as stiffness and damping) on the response of isolated bridge system. It is observed that the soil surrounding the pier has significant effects on the response of the isolated bridges and under certain circumstances the bearing displacements at abutment locations may be underestimated if the SSI effects are not considered in the response analysis of the system.     

Identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties during the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake

An extended Kalman filter algorithm with local iteration is presented for the identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties. Borehole-array strong motions were recorded at a liquefied site during the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake. In this study, a modified Kalman filtering method in which the extended Kalman filter is iteratively used at every local time-step to track rapid parameter changes is proposed. The method is then applied to the instrumented soil layer, which is modeled by an equivalent linear model. An identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties was conducted successfully; and non-linear restoring force–displacement relationships including progression with time were obtained.     

美国新马德里地震带的震间应变积累

使用全球定位系统（ＧＰＳ）卫星接收仪在美国新马德里地震带重新测量了历史上的三角网，并据此估算了震间应变速率．使用的观测资料包括５０年代初期在这个地区２０多个测站上获取的三角测量数据，以及在这些测站上于１９９１年和１９９３年所取得的ＧＰＳ测量数据．在整个网内的平均应变速率为每年０．１４１±０．０２５微应变．最大主压缩轴方向为ＮＥ８９°±６°．这一实测平均应变速率的数量级与考古地震研究和地震活动速率关于大地震重复周期在新马德里地区大约为５００－１０００ａ的估计相吻合．在美国中部进行的原地应力测量指出，该地区的最大主任应力轴为ＮＥＥ向，本文关于最大主压缩轴方向的结果与此相－致．     

焦作市森林火险等级预报系统

利用1989～1999年焦作市逐日森林火险天气等级资料，分析了焦作地区森林火险与气象要素的关系，建立了焦作市火险等级预报系统。经2001～2002年实际应用，效果良好。     

Influence of earthquake frequency content on soil dynamic properties at CAO site

The installation of vertical downhole arrays in the field that record the soil behavior during earthquakes, has opened the opportunity of exploring another alternate method for assessing the soil dynamic properties by solving the inverse problem. This article proposes a methodology for solving this problem using spectral analysis of downhole arrays records. The one-dimensional shear wave propagation model was used, considering a homogeneous-viscoelastic medium. This methodology was applied at the site known as Central de Abasto Oficinas (CAO), which is located in the lake zone of the Mexico City. The results indicate that even relatively low frequencies have a noticeable effect on dynamic soil properties. Shear modulus increases and damping ratio lessens when the frequency rises.