1960～2018年中国高温热浪的线性趋势分析方法与变化趋势

高温热浪直接影响人体健康和作物生长。研究全球变暖背景下我国高温热浪发生率的趋势是气候变化研究的基本问题之一,可为人们的生产生活等提供重要的科学信息。目前对于高温热浪趋势的研究大都使用最小二乘（Ordinary Least Squares,OLS）方法估计趋势,结合学生t检验判断趋势的统计显著性。本文审视了以往常用方法在研究我国高温热浪发生率的线性趋势时的适用性。首先,以2018年东北局部地区因当年高温日数异常多而形成离群值的例子展开,说明OLS方法估计趋势时对离群值非常敏感,造成虚假趋势。进一步,通过正态分布检验和自相关计算,发现1960~2018年中国至少有91.14%站点、90.06%格点的高温日数和92.18%站点、87.74%格点的热浪次数的序列不服从正态分布,而且多数存在自相关。采用一种不易受离群值影响并考虑自相关的非参数方法,本文对1960～2018年中国站点和格点、4个典型区域以及全国平均的高温日数和热浪次数的线性趋势做出了更为准确的估计。研究发现,高温日数显著增多的站点主要出现在华南和西北地区,热浪次数呈显著增多趋势的站点目前几乎仅限于华南地区和新疆的个别站点;区域平均而言,仅有华南区域和西北区域的高温日数和热浪次数是显著增多的,华北区域和东北区域趋势并不显著;全国平均的高温日数和热浪次数都是显著增多的。本文对高温热浪的趋势及其显著性估计、统计预测的方法选择上有重要参考价值。     

我国沿海城市应对气候变化的发展战略

我国沿海地区战略地位十分重要,并呈现“区域发展沿海化,沿海城市临海化”的趋势,但同时却面临着全球气候变化引起的海平面上升、极端气候灾害频发等诸多严峻挑战。为在战略层面解决我国向海发展的战略与全球气候变化的矛盾与冲突,文中提出了我国沿海城市应对气候变化的发展战略：确定了总体目标是建设适合我国国情的沿海气候弹性城市,提出了“规划引领、陆海统筹、主动适应、积极减排、适度冗余、增加弹性”的应对原则,明确了强化城市规划管控、控制空间发展方向、严控围填海造地、优化城市空间布局、提高规划设计标准、加强海岸防护设施、夯实城市基础设施和提升监测预警应急等8项重点任务。     

硇洲岛底栖海藻的初步研究

调查了硇洲岛底栖海藻的种类组成、垂直分布特点和区系性质。硇洲岛的海藻计有４３属６７种，其中包括４０种经济海藻。马尾藻属等在潮下带构成环岛的海底林带。其区系性质属亚热带。并对合理开发利用和保护现有的海藻资源，开展经济海藻的人工养殖提出了建议。     

Marine regions and regionalism in South-east Asia

If problems of ocean management are to be solved the seas must be divided up into appropriate regions. Regional boundaries can be based on factors of physical geography or on economic, political or management principles. South-east Asia, with complicated land-sea boundaries, provides a number of examples of different types of marine regions, which can be used as case study examples of problems and solutions in regionalizing the oceans. Eight regional types and locations are described and discussed, and it is concluded that regional arrangements for management or the solution of problems are at present limited to three: the Malacca-Singapore Straits, Andaman Sea and Celebes Sea.     

A review of pollutants in the sea-surface microlayer (SML): a unique habitat for marine organisms

Boundary layers between different environmental compartments represent critical interfaces for biological, chemical and physical processes. The sea-surface microlayer (uppermost 1-1000 microm layer) forms the boundary layer interface between the atmosphere and ocean. Environmental processes are controlled by the SML, and it is known to play a key role in the global distribution of anthropogenic pollutants. Due to its unique chemical composition, the upper organic film of the SML represents both a sink and a source for a range of pollutants including chlorinated hydrocarbons, organotin compounds, petroleum hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and heavy metals. These pollutants can be enriched in the SML by up to 500 times relative to concentrations occurring in the underlying bulk water column. The SML is also a unique ecosystem, serving as an important habitat for fish eggs and larvae. Concentration ranges and enrichment factors of pollutants in the SML in different areas of the world's oceans have been critically reviewed, together with available toxicity data for marine biota found within the SML. Overall, the SML is highly contaminated in many urban and industrialized areas of the world, resulting in severe ecotoxicological impacts. Such impacts may lead to drastic effects on the marine food web and to fishery recruitment in coastal waters. Studies of the toxicity of fish eggs and larvae exposed to the SML contaminants have shown that the SML in polluted areas leads to significantly higher rates of mortality and abnormality of fish embryos and larvae.     

Comparison of the acid-base responses to CO2 and acidification in Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus)

To investigate whether the biological toxicity of aquatic hypercapnia is due to the direct effects of CO2 or to the effects of acidification of seawater by CO2, the Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) was subjected to seawater equilibrated with a gas mixture of air containing 5% CO2 (pH 6.18) or seawater acidified to the same pH with 1 N H2SO4. All the fish died within 72 h in the CO2 exposure group, whereas no mortality occurred in the acid group. Acid-base parameters as well as plasma ion concentrations were severely perturbed in the CO2 exposure group, whereas they were minimally affected in the acid group. These results clearly demonstrate that the mortality in the CO2 group is a direct result of the elevated levels of dissolved CO2 and not to the effects of the reduced water pH.     

Quantifying the environmental impacts of artisanal fishing gear on Kenya's coral reef ecosystems

The environmental impacts of artisanal fishing gear on coral reef ecosystems were studied in the multi-gear fishery of southern Kenya to evaluate which types of gear have the greatest impact on coral reef biodiversity. The gear types studied were large and small traps, gill nets, beach seines, hand lines and spear guns. Levels of coral damage, proportion of juvenile fish and discards, size and maturity stage at first capture were quantified and compared amongst the gear types. Results indicate that fishers using beach seines, spears and gill nets cause the most direct physical damage to corals. Spear fishers showed the highest number of contacts to live corals per unit catch followed by fishers using gill nets (12.6 ± 1.8 and 5.9 ± 2.0 coral contacts per kg fish caught per trip respectively). Apart from discarding 6.5% of their daily catch in the sea, as it was too small, beach seine fishers also landed the highest percentage of juvenile fish (68.4 ± 15.7%), a proportion significantly higher (p < 0.001) than in any other gear. The size and maturity stage at first capture for 150 of 195 species caught by all gear types was well below the lengths at which they mature. For example, 100% of Lethrinus xanthochilus, 99% of Lethrinus nebulosus and 94% of Lethrinus harak caught were juveniles. Across all gear types, 50.1 ± 22.7% of the catch consisted of juvenile fish, indicating serious growth overfishing. Field assessment of levels of coral density showed that fishing grounds where beach seines were still in use had a significantly lower density than where beach seining was not used. This correlation is likely to arise in part because seines cannot be used in the most coral rich areas, and in part because coral loss is a consequence of seine use. On a per gear basis therefore, beach seines had the most impact on coral reef biodiversity. This study emphasizes the need to enforce restrictions on destructive gear and mesh sizes.     

Spatial patterning of Manta birostris in United States east coast offshore habitat

This study aims to identify patterns in spatial distribution of Manta birostris along American East Coast by analyzing presence data using a suite of geostatistical techniques. Analysis of data from 1979 to 2008 revealed that the spatial patterns exhibited by the M. birostris include a strong clustering zone off the North Carolina from (however, not all years are represented in that range), Virginia and Maryland coast. Their presence is high near the coastal shelf edge and along the edge of the Gulf Stream. The mix of warm water and high chlorophyll concentration throughout the year in the region seem to create an ideal environment for this clustering pattern. However, in seasons with warmer water temperature, manta rays spread further north and inshore, possibly to avoid competition for prey. The results of geographic weighted regression indicate the role of sea surface temperatures on Manta presence or absence off the main current of the Gulf Stream near North Carolina and Virginia. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of M. birostris can assist in further protecting the species especially from dangers of by-catch and habitat degradation.     

Late Pleistocene sea-level oscillations (MIS 10–2) recorded in shallow marine and coastal plain sediments of the southern Wanganui Basin, New Zealand

The northern Wanganui Basin, New Zealand, is one of the key global sites for understanding marine cyclic sedimentation during the Quaternary. This paper presents the first evidence of marine cyclic sedimentation from its central-southern parts. Sedimentological, micropalaeontological and palynological analyses on a 280-m-deep borehole encountered units dating back to MIS 10. The sequence includes four marine cycles spanning MIS 9–5, which are overlain by terrestrial fluvial aggradation surfaces dating from MIS 4–2. Each marine unit represents a progressively shallowing depositional environment from the mid-shelf to coastal plain. This is overlain by a terrestrial sequence of lowstand fluvial terraces. Localized fault movements appear to have influenced the sedimentary character of the sequence during MIS 7a and 5e producing basement highs which provided protection to the shoreline. The cyclothems described in this paper now extend the already extensive, previously described record from MIS 17–10 to produce a combined eustatic record of Quaternary sea level change within the basin to MIS 5. They also provide an excellent example of the sedimentary response of a coastal basin to a progressive loss of sedimentation accommodation space.     

A straightforward approach for using single time domain simulations to assess characteristic extreme responses

Short-term wave design approach of marine structures, using nonlinear time domain simulations, is a design procedure that is recognized by various modern standard codes. One of the most challenging points of this approach is the evaluation of the characteristic extreme values for response parameters used in the design check equations. The most straightforward and recommended way to evaluate a response characteristic value is by fitting an extreme value probability distribution to the N-sample of extreme values extracted from N independent time domain simulations with duration equal to the short-term period indicated by the code, which is usually taken as 3 h. However, this procedure would not be practical for some types of marine structures, such as risers and mooring lines, under numerous design load cases and demanding huge finite element models. A more feasible approach would be to assess the response extreme value distribution using only a single short-term time domain simulation with duration shorter than 3 h. But reduced time simulations always introduce some additional statistical uncertainty into the extreme values estimates. This paper discusses a workable way of properly taking into account the statistical uncertainty associated with the simulation length in the assessment of a characteristic short-term extreme response value based on a single time series.