Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

岩体变形模量的尺寸效应

岩土工程中,现场岩体的承压板试验和变形试验可看作是不同尺寸岩体的变形试验。在某工程的现场岩石力学试验中,对同一组试点的岩体先后进行了承压板变形试验和承载力试验,研究了岩体变形模量的尺寸效应,结果表明,岩体变形模量主要受岩体中的裂隙发育状况控制,当岩体质量较好时,可以由承载力试验曲线来确定岩体的变形特性,这一做法具有一举两得的效果。     

锤击沉管碎石桩处理液化地基的工程实践

结合实际工程,对锤击沉管碎石桩加固处理液化地基的设计、施工控制及处理效果进行了系统论述,对碎石桩设计、施工中遇到的若干问题提出了建议。     

岩体工程质量分级应用研究

岩体质量评价采用的测试技术包括地质勘察、弹性波检测和室内岩石力学试验。结合水布垭水利枢纽大坝建基岩体工程质量评价实例,对岩体工程质量分级的应用进行了研究。     

平板载荷试验应思考的几个问题

提出了平板载荷试验中的几个问题:(1)复合地基平板载荷试验垫层的重要性;(2)复合地基平板载荷试验存在尺寸效应;(3)单墩或单桩平板载荷试验不完善。重点对目前广泛使用的复合地基荷载试验进行了讨论,以引起检测人员注意。     

溪洛渡水电站坝址区岩体蠕变特性试验研究

介绍了溪洛渡水电站坝址区岩体柔性板法蠕变试验方法及试验结果,给出了岩体蠕变模型及其参数,为工程设计提供了参考依据。     

盐渍土与分散性针孔试验影响

通过具体实例,研究了新疆氯盐渍、硫酸盐渍土对针孔试验的影响,认为氯盐渍土因其胶结作用,随着盐量的增加,土样孔径大小、流量变化不大。硫酸盐渍土因其膨胀性,随着盐量的增加,土样孔径、流量减小,对土样的冲蚀破坏作用而不相同。     

打桩挤土的现场试验研究及土体位移的计算公式

打桩挤土使周围土体发生位移,对周围其他桩及附近原有建筑物和基础设施产生破坏。本文通过典型工程打桩过程中的监测数据,运用小孔扩张理论结合回归分析方法导出了计算土体位移量的经验公式。运用该公式可定量预估挤土程度,防止意外事故的发生。     

重塑非饱和粘土抗剪强度参数与饱和度的关系研究

土的饱和度是基于水分状态和密度状态的一个衍生变量。存在因应水分状态变化和因应密度状态变化的两类饱和度变化过程。根据23组不同水分状态和密度状态的UU三轴压缩试验结果,讨论了重塑非饱和粘性土抗剪强度参数与饱和度的关系。数据分析表明:粘聚力与水分状态相关的饱和度的关系是强非线性的,与密度状态相关的饱和度的关系是准线性的。内摩擦角与水分状态相关的饱和度的关系是强非线性的,与密度状态相关的饱和度的关系是弱非线性的。