南海夏季风对华南夏季降水年代际变化的影响

华南夏季降水和南海夏季风都具有准两年的变化特征。研究表明：20世纪70年代以后，华南夏季降水年代际变化主要表现在准两年尺度平均方差的变化上，当准两年方差大时，相应的华南夏季降水多，反之亦然。但是在1976年以前南海夏季风对华南夏季降水的影响并不大，这似乎与两者准两年变化关系的年代际变化有关。南海夏季风和华南夏季降水的准两年变化在1953-1976年是弱的反位相变化关系，相反地，这一时段它们的非准两年变化成分有很强的正相关；在1977-2000年这一阶段，南海夏季风和华南夏季降水的准两年变化具有很强的正相关，但是它们的非准两年变化成分的相关性则很差。分析结果还表明，20世纪70年代大气环流的年代际变异使得华南夏季降水准两年变化在最近20多年成为其年际时间演变的主导成分。     

Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.     

2015年湖南冬汛成因分析

本文基于气象观测资料、再分析资料和国家气候中心提供的百项气候系统指数集,利用气候事件机理诊断和气候统计等方法,重点从降水背景、大尺度环流异常及外强迫因子对气候异常影响,分析2015 年湖南罕见冬汛及其成因机制,本文对2015年湖南冬汛及其可能成因进行了分析,结果表明：（1）2015年11月湖南省平均降水量偏多1.6倍,为1961年以来同期第一高位,其中湘东南部分地区降水量超过250 mm,出现气象洪涝。（2）在湖南11月降水处于偏多的年代际背景下,大气环流异常是导致湖南发生冬汛的最直接的原因,2015年11月西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,引导来自印度洋、太平洋地区水汽向东亚地区输送,加上西路冷空气影响导致11月降水异常偏多。（3）在PDO暖位相时发生的El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件可能是湖南降水异常的重要外强迫条件,赤道中东太平洋和印度洋海表温度异常偏高,导致该区域上空出现强的异常上升运动,而在海洋性大陆区域上空出现了一个异常下沉气流区,这有利于西太平洋副热带高压的加强、西伸,在东亚低纬地区上空出现异常下沉气流区,中纬地区上空出现异常上升气流区,造成该区域强烈的异常辐合,导致该地区持续阴雨天气。     

北极涛动对青藏高原冬季变暖的影响

基于青藏高原地区1960-2010年高分辨率(0.5°×0.5°)的逐日地面气温格点资料以及 1960-2010年NCEP/NCAR全球月平均海平面气压场、高度场、风场的再分析格点资料(2.5°×2.5°), 通过计算青藏高原(74.75°~104.25° E, 26.75°~40.25° N)冬季地面温度平均值经标准化处理后得到的区域冬季气温强度指数, 分析了冬季北极涛动(AO)、西伯利亚高压与同期青藏高原地面气温的特征和关系. 结果表明: AO为负(正)相位时, 中高纬西风气流偏弱(强), 有(不)利于极地冷空气向南输送, 西伯利亚地区源地冬季风偏强(弱), 青藏高原冬季气温指数减小(增大), 地面气温偏低(高). 对AO作M-K突变分析, 发现其突变年份为1975年, 通过对突变年份前后高度场和风场作差值场分析, 结果显示: 冬季AO处于高指数时期, 500 hPa上, 欧洲东部槽变浅, 青藏高原北部的高压脊减弱, 环流呈纬向发展, 青藏高原上盛行偏南风, 气温偏高, 青藏高原地区为暖冬期; 200 hPa 上, 青藏高原东部的槽明显加深, 使得青藏高原地区对流层顶至平流层底的环流趋势以经向发展为主, 该区域主要受到偏北的急流控制, 易导致降温.     

The Relationship between the Wintertime Blocking over Greenland and the Sea Ice Distribution over North Atlantic

The sea-ice concentration in the Northern Hemisphere, 500 hPa height, sea-level pressure and 1000-500 hPa thickness of monthly mean data are examined for the period 1953-1989, with emphasis on the winter season.Relationships between large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability and sea-ice variability are investigated, making use of the correlation method. The analysis is conducted for the Atlantic sectors. In agreement with earlier studies based upon monthly mean data on sea-ice concentration, the strongest sea-ice pattern is composed of a dipole with opposing centers of action in the Davis Straits / Labrador Sea region and the Greenland and Barents Seas. Its temporal variability is strongly coupled to the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relationship between the two patterns is strongest with the atmosphere leading the ocean. The polarity of the NAO is associated with Greenland blocking episodes, during which the influence of the atmosphere is strong enough to temporarily halt the c     

ENSO对MJO传播特征演变的影响

利用TRMM降水和ERA-Interim温度、比湿、环流场等再分析资料, 探讨了在1998-2018年冬季年际尺度海温变化对MJO的强度、结构和传播特征的影响。主要结论如下: 通过一种追踪MJO的方法在研究时间范围内共可挑选出50个MJO事件, 其中有14个MJO事件发生在El Ni?o期间, 25个发生在La Ni?a期间, 11个发生在ENSO正常年。El Ni?o年MJO会传播至更远的中东太平洋附近, 而La Ni?a年MJO事件趋于在西太平洋地区消亡, 这主要与东太平洋地区持续的季节内尺度的经向水汽输送有关。此外, 在印度洋和太平洋地区, El Ni?o年的MJO活动更强, 而在海洋性大陆附近, La Ni?a年的MJO活动略强一些。ENSO对MJO强度的影响主要通过影响MJO对流中心东侧水汽的输送, 水汽在异常东风气流的输送下穿过对流中心东边界进入对流中心, 进而造成MJO活动强度的差异。      

北极涛动、极涡活动异常对北半球欧亚大陆冬季气温的影响

利用1951-2012年NCEP/NCAR全球月平均500 hPa高度场、气温场等再分析资料,北极涛动（AO）指数,北半球及其4个分区的极涡指数等资料,分析极涡和AO对北半球特别是欧亚大陆冬季气温异常分布的影响。北半球极涡面积指数与北半球气温相关场呈由北向南的“+、-”分布,显著正相关中心位于极区,显著负相关中心位于欧亚大陆中高纬度地区;AO指数与气温的相关场分布与此反位相。极涡各分区面积指数体现与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征,尤其是亚洲极涡面积指数比AO的相关区域更偏向亚洲和中国东部及沿海地区,能表征亚洲大陆冬季风向中低纬度爆发的某些特征。2006年以来AO指数呈较明显的下降趋势,北半球、亚洲区极涡面积指数呈显著的上升趋势,这是有利于欧亚大陆近几年连续冬季气温异常偏低的年代际背景;2009-2011年北半球欧亚大陆冬季大范围低温事件,不仅与冬季AO负位相明显变强有关（2011年除外）,与北半球以及亚洲区极涡面积指数偏大联系更为密切,亦表明该区域冬季变冷的自然变率明显增强。     

高低层纬向风切变的年际变率及气候学意义

用1959～1998共40年全球格点风场资料计算了200 hPa与850 hPa的纬向风速差, 即对流层纬向风切变(简称TZWS),并在此基础上得到其距平值。为了全面考察对流层中环流异常的年际变率特征, 根据TZWS的标准差分布, 文中选出了7个TZWS标准差数值大于5 m/s的代表性区域。这7个区域分别位于赤道中太平洋、赤道东太平洋、北太平洋亚热带地区、南太平洋亚热带地区、赤道大西洋、亚洲西南部以及东北部。前5个分别位于赤道、亚热带太平洋和大西洋的区域TZWS指数, 其年际变率与ENSO循环有密切联系, 反映了热带海洋温度异常对低纬度地区对流层环流的影响; 后2个区域的TZWS指数反映的是亚洲西南部和东北部的气候统变率, 在年际时间尺度上与ENSO循环有着明显的区别。通过对全球陆地降水和温度场的分析, 比较了热带、副热带的TZWS指数以及北极涛动指数的异同, 发现后2个区域TZWS指数能很好且能独立反映出北半球中高纬度地区陆地降水及陆地温度的异常模态。     

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Europe Blocking and Their Impacts on Extreme Snowstorms: A Review

Large-scale, low frequency modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and blocking, have an important modulation on the northern hemisphere weather and climate. In this paper, the physical mechanism studies on inter-decadal and decadal variability of NAO and blocking were summarized. The relationship between NAO regime transitions and the interannual variability of NAO in winter during was examined by using a statistical approach. The time-space relationship between NAO and European blocking were discussed. Based on two extreme cold and snowstorm events, the impacts on local weather especially the extreme events within the life cycle (two weeks) of the NAO and blocking were further examined. It was found that the frequently occurrence of the Eurasian extreme snowstorm was closely related to the special combination of NAO and blocking regime. In addition, the development of theoretical modes for NAO and blocking was discussed and issues that remain to be solved were proposed.     

Strengthened Relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO After the Mid-1990s during Austral Spring

This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990 s.During the period 1979–93,the ENSO(AAO)spatial signatures are restricted to the tropics–midlatitudes(Antarctic–midlatitudes)of the Southern Hemisphere(SH),with a weak connection between the two oscillations.Comparatively,after the mid-1990 s,the El Ni o-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid–high latitudes of the SH.The expansion of El Ni o-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH,contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet.Meanwhile,the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics.Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990 s is responsible for the strengthened AAO–ENSO relationship.