THE ROLES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DYNAMICS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION*

In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993) is utilized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process of boundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables in terms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 for equatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as a Kelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modified Kelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10^-6 s^-1and an eastward phase speed of 10 m s^-1;the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the observed Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridional scale(n=4) decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2) grows in short-wave bands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julian oscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the development of the Madden-Julian oscillation.     

Does the El Niño-Southern Oscillation control the interhemispheric radiocarbon offset?

Since the 1970s it has been recognised that Southern Hemisphere samples have a lower radiocarbon content than contemporaneous material in the Northern Hemisphere. This interhemispheric radiocarbon offset has traditionally been considered to be the result of a greater surface area in the southern ocean and high-latitude deepwater formation. This is despite the fact that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to play a significant role in controlling the interannual variability of atmospheric carbon dioxide by changing the flux of ‘old’ CO₂ from the tropical Pacific. Here we demonstrate that over the past millennium, the Southern Hemisphere radiocarbon offset is characterised by a pervasive 80-yr cycle with a step shift in mean values coinciding with the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The observed changes suggest an ENSO-like role in influencing the interhemispheric radiocarbon difference, most probably modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and supports a tropical role in forcing centennial-scale global climate change.     

Air–Sea Coupling Enhances the East Asian Winter Climate Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

A simple air–sea coupled model,the atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model,is employed to investigate the impact of air–sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO). A regional coupling strategy is applied,in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies,and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation,but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison,the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus,air–sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification,an additional set of AGCM experiments,forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies,is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus,tropical air–sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.     

Simulated Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Eurasian Nonuniform Warming since the Mid-1990s

Based on ensemble experiments with three atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs), this study investigates the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in shaping the summer nonuniform warming over the Eurasian continent since the mid-1990 s. The results validate that the positive-phase AMO can indeed cause nonuniform warming,with predominant amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but with much weaker warming over Central Asia. The underlying mechanism is then diagnosed from the perspective that the boundary forcing modulates the intrinsic atmospheric variability. The results highlight the role of the Silk Road Pattern(SRP), an intrinsic teleconnection pattern across the subtropical Eurasian continent propagating along the Asian jet. The SRP can not only be identified from the AGCM control experiments with the climatological sea surface temperature(SST), but can also be simulated by the AMO-related SST anomaly(SSTA) forcing. Furthermore, diagnostic linear baroclinic model experiments are conducted, and the results suggest that the SRP can be triggered by the AMO-related tropical diabatic heating. The AMO-triggered SRP-like responses feature anticyclonic circulations over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but cyclonic circulation over Central Asia. These responses cause increased warm advection towards Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, reduced precipitation and cloud cover, and then increased downward shortwave radiation. This increased warm advection and increased downward shortwave radiation together cause amplified warming in Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia. The situation is opposite for Central Asia.     

Interdecadal Modulation of AMO on the Winter North Pacific Oscillation-Following Winter ENSO Relationship

It is known that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important extratropical forcing for the occurrence of an El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in the subsequent winter via the “seasonal footprinting mechanism” (SFM). This study reveals that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can notably modulate the relationship between the winter NPO and the following winter ENSO. During the negative AMO phase, the winter NPO has significant impacts on the following winter ENSO via the SFM. In contrast, the influence of the winter NPO on ENSO is not robust at all during the positive AMO phase. Winter NPO-generated westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific during the following spring are much stronger during negative than positive AMO phases. It is suggested that the AMO impacts the winter NPO-induced equatorial westerly winds over the western Pacific via modulating the precipitation climatology over the tropical central Pacific and via modulating the connection of the winter NPO with spring sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic.     

Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Interannual variations of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset in association with El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reexamined using NCEP1, JRA-55 and ERA20C atmospheric and Hadley sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis datasets over the period 1900?2017. Decadal changes exist in the dependence of the BOBSM onset on ENSO, varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A higher correlation between the BOBSM onset and ENSO arises during the warm PDO epochs, with distinct late (early) onsets following El Ni?o (La Ni?a) events. In contrast, less significant correlations occur during the cold PDO epochs. The mechanism for the PDO modulating the ENSO?BOBSM onset relationship is through the variations in SST anomaly (SSTA) patterns. During the warm PDO epochs, the superimpositions of the PDO-related and ENSO-related SSTAs lead to the SSTA distribution of an El Ni?o (La Ni?a) event exhibiting significant positive (negative) SSTAs over the tropical central?eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean along with negative (positive) SSTAs, especially over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), forming a strong zonal interoceanic SSTA gradient between the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean. Significant anomalous lower tropospheric easterlies (westerlies) together with upper-tropospheric westerlies (easterlies) are thus induced over the BOB, favoring an abnormally late (early) BOBSM onset. During the cold PDO epochs, however, the superimpositions of PDO-related SSTAs with El Ni?o-related (La Ni?a-related) SSTAs lead to insignificant SSTAs over the TWP and a weak zonal SSTA gradient, without distinct circulation anomalies over the BOB favoring early or late BOBSM onsets.     

Diagnosing the spatiotemporal diversity of westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific

Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) over the tropical Pacific are characterized by their spatiotemporal diversity and classified into six types based on their different locations and durations. Various types of WWEs exhibit quite different characteristics in terms of their amplitudes. The long events with a 10–30-day duration are stronger than the short events with a 6–10-day duration, and the maximum amplitudes of the Central-Pacific (C) type and Eastern-Pacific (E) type of long events are larger than the Western-Pacific (W) type of long ones. The evolutions of these six types of WWEs are also quite different. The W-type short and long events and the C-type long events show a distinct eastward propagation, whereas the C-type short events and the E-type short and long events have no apparent propagation direction. We demonstrate that such a difference in the eastward propagation of WWEs can be significantly associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The W-type events are more influenced heavily by the MJO, as indicated by their more distinct eastward propagation patterns, than the two other types of WWEs. In addition to the MJO, the convectively coupled Kelvin waves are also associated with the WWEs, especially for the short events.     

BCC_CSM1.1气候模式年代际试验对北极涛动季节回报能力的初步评估

本文基于国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1自1960—2004年每年起报的年代际预测试验结果,初步评估了该模式对北极涛动（AO）的预报技巧。同时,把该模式年代际预测结果与历史试验模拟比较,分析了气候模式初始化对年代际试验预测季节尺度AO及其年际变化的贡献。结果表明,年代际试验和历史试验均能反映出AO模态是北半球中高纬大气变率第一模态的特征,其中年代际预测试验回报的AO模态与观测的空间相关系数高于历史试验。两组试验基本能再现AO指数冬季最强、夏季最弱的特征。与历史试验相比,年代际预测试验回报月和冬季AO指数与观测的相关系数更高,特别是年代际试验与观测的月AO指数相关系数达到了0.1的显著性水平。年代际试验回报月、春季AO指数的变化周期更接近观测结果。因此,年代际试验中初始状态使用海温资料进行初始化,在一定程度上可以提高AO的回报能力。     

冬季北太平洋海温主模态在1990年前后调整及其成因初探?

太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和北太平洋涡旋振荡(NPGO)是北太平洋(20°~60°N,120°E~120°W)海温(SST)的EOF前两个模态,本文通过比较1990年前后北太平洋冬季SST EOF前两个模态,揭示了PDO和NPGO在1990年前后特征,并从关键区海温变化、北太平洋涛动(NPO)、赤道太平洋中部变暖(CPW)和北极涛动(AO)的影响,揭示了北太平洋主模态在1990年之后调整的成因。我们发现,1990年之前,北太平洋SST场的EOF前两个模态与PDO和NPGO的空间结构类似,但是在1990年之后,SST的EOF第一模态的最大荷载中心向日界线移动,40°N以北的太平洋被正的SST异常控制,表现出与NPGO模态的负位相相似的空间分布特征,而EOF第二模态由偶极子演变成了三极子结构。北太平洋中部(28°~36°N,152°~178°W)和北太平洋北部(44°~49°N,151°~177°W)海温距平在1990年之后呈显著的负相关变化,是导致在1990年之后冬季NPGO成为主模态的内部原因,而NPO在1990年之后的显著增强则是重要的外部原因。分析显示,NPO在1980年开始表现出增强趋势,通过风生流机制,NPO可以增强北太平洋45°N附近的气压梯度和西风异常幅度,从而导致了1990年之后NPGO海温模态的加强。虽然CPW和AO对NPO的南支(夏威夷)和北支(阿拉斯加)的海平面气压异常中心加强有贡献,但是上述两个因子与NPGO之间的关系在1990年之前并不明显。因此,CPW和AO与NPGO之间并不存在稳定的物理联系。     

春季北极涛动对盛夏长江流域地表气温的影响

本文基于1958至2002年的ERA-40 月平均再分析资料,利用年际增量方法分析了春季北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,简称AO)与我国夏季长江流域地表气温的关系。结果表明,在扣除前期冬季ENSO影响后,5月AO指数与8月长江流域地表气温存在显著正相关。通过回归分析发现,5月AO可通过影响中低纬度的海气相互作用进而影响8月长江流域地表气温。当5月AO处于正位相时,在(10°~15°N)及赤道附近产生异常下沉气流,对应着西太平洋局地Hadley环流减弱,对流层底层出现了异常的反气旋性辐散气流。与之对应,赤道西太平洋地区出现了显著的东风异常。由于该东风异常位于5月气候平均的局地海表面温度(SST)极大值中心位置上,该东风异常可通过平流作用使得高海温不断地向西堆积,最终造成赤道西太平洋SST出现显著正异常。当该SST正异常持续至8月时,它通过Gill响应(Gill,1980)在其西北侧激发出气旋性异常环流,它有利于西太平洋副热带高压在我国长江流域的维持,进而造成长江流域地表气温正异常。反之,则相反。