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351.
采用NCEP的1973-2002年南极海冰密集度资料,对近30年南极海冰冰密集度的季节变化、年际变化及其与南极海冰涛动指数的长期变化关系进行了分析研究。结果表明,南极海冰的季节变化特点是海冰融化速度远大于凝结速度,而北极海冰融化速度与凝结速度基本相同。南极海冰存在着明显的年际变化,海冰面积指数呈增加趋势,年平均倾向率为28/10a。而北极海冰年际变化则相反,呈减少趋势,年平均面积指数的倾向率-3.5/10a。南极海冰涛动指数能代表南极地区近1/3的海水变化,是南极海冰变化的重要指数,具有10年、3-5年和2年左右的准振荡周期。 相似文献
352.
连续18年“暖冬”终结的原因 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
季林的气候潮汐循环说和郭增建的海震调温说,阐明了冷气候、强潮汐和强震相互对应的物理机制,对2000年地球进入拉马德雷冷位相后的气候预测有重大科学意义。中国连续18年暖冬的终结是2000年地球进入拉马德雷冷位相和2004年12月26日印尼发生了地震海啸的合理结果。 相似文献
353.
354.
The Caspian Sea (CS), the world's largest inland sea, may also be considered as large-scale limnic system. Due to strong fluctuations of its water level during the 20th century and the flooding of vast areas in a highly vulnerable coastal zone, economic and environmental risk potentials have to be considered. Since the major water input into the CS is attributed to the Volga river, the understanding of its long-term flow process is necessary for an appropriate risk assessment for the CS and its coastal area. Therefore, a top-down approach based on statistical analyses of long-term Volga flow series is pursued. For the series of annual mean flow (MQ) of the Volga river basin during the 20th century, a complex oscillation pattern was identified. Analyses for multiple gauges in the Volga river basin and Eurasian reference basins revealed that this oscillation pattern resulted from the superposition of oscillations with periods of ∼30 years (MQ) in the western part of the Volga river basin, and ∼14 years (flow volume of snowmelt events) and ∼20 years (flow volume of summer and autumn) in the eastern part of the Volga river basin (Kama river basin). Almost synchronous minima or maxima of these oscillations occurred just in the periods of substantial changes of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). It can thus be assumed that the described mechanism is fundamental for an understanding of the CSL development during the 20th century. Regarding the global climate change, it is still difficult to predict reliably the development of the CSL for the 21st century. Consequently, we suggest an ongoing, interdisciplinary research co-operation among climatology, hydrology, hydraulics, ecology and spatial data management. 相似文献
355.
利用1957~1992年南极地区大气臭氧总量地面观测站资料,对南极地区臭氧的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明,虽然近35年来南极地区的大气臭氧有较明显的减小趋势,但在不同地区、时段和季节,其变化趋势也不同。近年来南极地区大气臭氧的显著亏损,主要是由南极臭氧洞的形成和发展所造成的。南极地区的大气臭氧存在明显的年振荡、准20个月和准30个月的振荡周期。臭氧变化与天文日照、平流层温度场、平流层冰晶云及人类活动排放到大气中的氟氯烃和溴化烃等污染物质有关。 相似文献
356.
ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kishan N. Amarasekera Robert F. Lee Earle R. Williams Elfatih A. B. Eltahir 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):24-39
This paper examines the relationship between the annual discharges of the Amazon, Congo, Paran á, and Nile rivers and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since river systems are comprehensive integrators of rainfall over large areas, accurate characterization of the flow regimes in major rivers will increase our understanding of large-scale global atmospheric dynamics. Results of this study reveal that the annual discharges of two large equatorial tropical rivers, the Amazon and the Congo, are weakly and negatively correlated with the equatorial Pacific SST anomalies with 10% of the variance in annual discharge explained by ENSO. Two smaller subtropical rivers, the Nile and the Paraná, show a correlation that is stronger by about a factor of 2. The Nile discharge is negatively correlated with the SST anomaly, whereas the Paraná river discharge shows a positive relation. The tendency for reduced rainfall/discharge over large tropical convection zones in the ENSO warm phase is attributed to global scale subsidence associated with major upwelling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 相似文献
357.
358.
The relationship between tropical cyclone activity and ENSO is examined for the major cyclone regions using crosscorrelations,spectral analysis and composite analysis of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature,thenormalised monthly Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and tropical cyclone frequencies.The closest relationship betweenthe 3—4 year ENSO period and tropical cyclone activity was found in the western North Pacific west of 160°E and thereseems to be significant potential for seasonal forecasting in this region based on ENSO parameters alone.No significantrelationships were found for the North Indian Ocean,and the remainder of the basins were dominated by oscillationsnear the quasi-biennial period.Physical explanations and forecasting of the seasonal variations in tropical cyclone num-bers in these regions will need to account for the QBO as well as the 3—4 year ENSO connections. 相似文献
359.
本文利用1973—1982年南极海冰北界资料,分析了南极海冰平均北界(海冰范围)的变化及其与南半球大气环流变化间的联系。1976年前,南极海冰平均北界偏北(海冰范围扩大),而1977年-1980年,南极海冰平均北界偏南(海冰范围缩小)。与此相对应,这两个时期的南半球大气环流具有明显不同的特点。在南极海冰平均北界偏北、海冰范围扩大时期,南极高压和绕极低压带偏弱,南半球中高纬度地区槽脊位置偏西,南印度洋和南大晒洋副热带高压偏弱,南太平洋副热带西凤减弱、中纬度西风加强,而南太平洋副热带高压和印度尼西亚低压带发展,南方涛动处于正位相阶段;在南极海冰平均北界偏南、海冰范围缩小时期,则相反。分析表明,南方涛动与南极海冰之间存在相互联系,并以南极海冰超前南方涛动约2个月时的关系最好,其次是南极海冰落后南方涛动4个月。 相似文献
360.
Short-termClimaticFluctuationsinNorthAtlanticOscillationandFrequencyofCyclonicDisturbancesoverNorthIndianOceanandNorthwestPac... 相似文献