Identification of extreme events using drought indices and their impact on the Danube lower basin discharge

In this study extreme droughts and extremely wet periods in the Danube upper and middle basin (DUMB) have been highlighted with specific indices. The most widely used indices have been considered to estimate both the dry and wet phenomena severity and the frequency or spatio‐temporal extension. The climatic condition of 15 meteorological stations situated in the Danube basin has been evaluated using four indices: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), Weighted PDSI (WPLM) and Palmer Z‐index (ZIND). The four indices have been analysed separately for each of the four seasons between 1901 and 2000. First the internal structure of the time series of the four indices has been analysed separately. Then the overall temporal characteristic has been analysed by means of the principal component of the Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Functions decomposition of the four indices (PC1‐MEOF). For the discharge in the Danube lower basin, station Orsova has been chosen, representing an integrator of the discharges from the DUMB. A very close connection has been found between Palmer indices and Danube discharge in all seasons (with correlation coefficients greater then 0.80) excepting the spring season. A classification in five classes of both the four indices separately and the PC1‐MEOF has been achieved in order to highlight extreme events. The impact of phenomena quantified by Palmer indices in DUMB upon discharges in Danube lower basin is evident. It was demonstrated in this study that the Greenland‐Balkan Oscillation (GBO) influences the south‐east European hydro‐climatic regime more than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Asymmetric Connection of SST in the Tasman Sea with Respect to the Opposite Phases of ENSO in Austral Summer

This study uses linear regression and composite analyses to identify a pronounced asymmetric connection of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tasman Sea with the two opposite phases of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during austral summer. In El Ni?o years, the SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tasman Sea exhibit a dipolar pattern with weak warmth in the northwest and modest cooling in the southeast, while during La Ni?a years the SSTAs exhibit a basin-scale warmth with greater amplitude. Investigations into the underlying mechanism suggest that this asymmetry arises from a mechanism related to oceanic heat transport, specifically the anomalous Ekman meridional heat transport induced by the zonal wind stress anomalies, rather than the surface heat fluxes on the air-sea interface. Further analysis reveals that the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport between El Ni?o and La Ni?a years is driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea stimulated by the asymmetric diabatic heating in the tropical Pacific between the two opposite ENSO phases.     

ENSO as a natural experiment to understand environmental control of meiofaunal community structure

The sediments of the Bay of Concepción and the adjacent shelf underlie one of the most productive upwelling areas in the SE Pacific margin. Reports on factors controlling meiofaunal community structure in these kinds of organic‐rich and oxygen‐deficient habitats are scarce in the literature. In this study, five sites along a transect from the mid‐Bay of Concepción (27 m) to the outer shelf (120 m) were studied on fives dates (May, August, November 1997, and March and May 1998) in order to assess the dynamic relationships between sedimentary organic matter and metazoan meiofauna. The sampling period coincided with the 1997–1998 El Niño event. Sediment parameters investigated were the redox potential discontinuity depth, photosynthetic pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a and phaeopigments), organic carbon, nitrogen, total lipids, carbohydrates, and proteins. In general, lowest values of meiofauna abundance and biomass were found within the naturally eutrophic Bay of Concepción and towards the shelf break, while maximum values occurred at intermediate depths. During the whole period, the meiofaunal abundance was negatively correlated with the concentration of most of the biochemical components of organic matter, as well as with the sediment phaeopigment content. However, positive correlations were found with chlorophyll a derived indices and with bottom‐water oxygen content. Most of the sediment parameters displayed a seasonal cycle, but towards the beginning of 1998, an effect of the 1997–1998 El Niño was evident. Typical austral‐summer (i.e. oxygen‐deficient) conditions did not develop, and sedimentary parameters reflected a decreased input of phytodetritus. Along the transect, the magnitude of this effect on meiofauna varied among sites. An overall positive response, in terms of meiofaunal abundance was observed, probably due to the amelioration of low oxygen conditions in the sediment.     

冬季南极涛动对欧亚大陆地表气温的影响

基于1962~2011年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,本文研究了北半球冬季南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）对欧亚大陆地表气温的影响及其物理过程。线性回归结果表明,在扣除冬季ENSO信号后,1月AAO与2月欧亚大陆地表气温呈显著正相关关系。当1月AAO处于正位相时,东南太平洋出现显著的位势高度正异常,这对应着南半球副热带高压的增强。该高度正异常在空间上从南半球向北扩展至北半球东太平洋地区,在时间上可一直持续到2月,它在南北半球相互作用过程中起重要作用。2月,北半球东太平洋高度正异常随高度向北倾斜,在对流层上层位于美国西南侧,该位置对应着北大西洋风暴轴入口处。进一步的相关分析表明,美国西南侧的高度正异常与地中海西北侧的瞬变波活动显著正相关,进而对应着斯堪的纳维亚半岛地区的高度负异常的形成。该负异常通过向下游频散波能量,引起贝加尔湖西侧高度正异常,形成典型的负位相斯堪的纳维亚环流型。该环流型对应60°N附近的西风异常,抑制了北侧冷空气南下,进而引起欧亚大陆地表气温正异常,反之亦然。     

Principal Modes and Related Frequencies of Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Pacific Coast of North America

We examined monthly time-series (1950 to 1999) of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 47 quadrants (2° × 2°) along the Pacific coast of North America. Correlation, clustering and principal components analyses were applied to identify the spatial structure in coastal SST. The resulting modes and the individual series were investigated using spectral analysis to identify the most significant time-scales of variability, and the propagation of the main signals was explored by computing the wavenumber-frequency spectrum of each spatial mode. Results showed that coastal SST variability in the northeast Pacific conformed to three main geographical modes. A tropical mode extends from the equator to about the entrance to the Gulf of California. This mode appears related to two low frequency components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation of about 3 and 5 years. The SST anomaly related to these signals propagates poleward, seemingly at low speeds (≈0.08 m s^?1). A temperate (or transitional) mode, which includes the coastal areas along the California Current System, also shows the 5-year signal plus a decadal-scale component (periods between 10–17 years). Finally, a subarctic mode includes the coastal areas along the Gulf of Alaska and is dominated by the interdecadal variability that is characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Ni?a Event?

Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI) and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME) El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Outlook issued in April 2022, La Ni?a is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall, indicating a high possibility of a three-year La Ni?a(2020–23). It would be the first three-year La Ni?a since the 1998–2001 event, which is the only observed three-year La Ni?a event since 1980. By exam...