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61.
热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)实时监测预测业务 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6
参考目前国际上普遍认可的Wheeler和Hendon设计的MJO监测指标,设计了适合开展实时业务监测的MJO计算方法,初步在国家气候中心建立了逐日的MJO实时监测业务,通过与国外同类监测结果的比较分析表明,监测指标可以很好地描述MJO的强度和传播特征,与国外同类监测产品有很好的一致性。另外,引入了两种统计方法进行了针对MJO指数的实时预测,对预测结果的检验表明,对MJO在两周内有较好的预测技巧,其中利用滞后线性回归方法（PCL）的预测技巧要高于自回归模型（ARM）。 相似文献
62.
运用K均值聚类法将冬季北大西洋及欧洲地区的天气流型分为4种不同的流型。研究了不同阶段8种不同位相的热带季节内振荡（MJO）与这4种流型的年际变化的关系。通过一系列的对比试验发现,K均值聚类法划分得到的不同位相的北大西洋涛动（NAO）的天数能很好地反映NAO指数;无论是在1978～1990年（简称为P1阶段）还是在1991～2010年（简称为P2阶段）,MJO第3（6）位相影响NAO正（负）位相;但在P1阶段存在NAO的位相转换,当MJO处于第1位相时,NAO由弱的负位相转换为正位相,当MJO处于第6位相时, NAO由正位相转换为负位相;而在P2阶段NAO并没有明显的位相转换,当MJO处于第1位相时,NAO由偶极子结构转换为波列结构。 相似文献
63.
In this study, two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode (MJO) are found in the summer season (persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active), and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes. They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons: When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer, El Ni?o events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year. However, during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean, La Ni?a events often follow instead. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation, and results in wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean. The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO. 相似文献
64.
The low frequency oscillation of latent heat flux over the tropical oceans has been studied. The NCEP reanalyzed fields of
wind and humidity alongwith Reynolds SST are used to compute the instantaneous as well as monthly mean surface latent heat
fluxes (LHF) for the year 1999. The procedure of LHF computation is based on bulk method. Spectral analysis shows that significant
energy is contained in Madden Julian Oscillation band in the winds, SST, moisture and in the latent heat flux. The global
distribution of wind, humidity, SST and LHF oscillation on the time scale of 30–50 days are analyzed. Maximum amplitude of
oscillation on this time scale in all the above mentioned parameters were found over the Indian Ocean. The fluctuation of
surface wind speed and moisture controls the latent heat flux on this time scale. The fluctuation of SST on this time scale
does not seem to be important over most of the oceans. 相似文献
65.
大气模式中季节内振荡特征对不同海温强迫场的响应 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用美国国家大气研究中心 (NCAR)的全球大气模式 (CCM3) ,分别以月平均和周平均海表温度 (SST)为强迫场进行 2个积分试验 (称为 CCMM和 CCMW试验 )。积分结果与观测资料的对比分析发现 ,CCM3模拟大气季节内振荡 (MJO)信号的强度均较观测资料偏弱 ,而其中以CCMW模拟的强度略大而较接近真实。表明 SST强迫场包含更真实的季节内变化信息对提高模拟 MJO强度有作用。 CCMM与 CCMW模拟 MJO活动的时间位相均与观测差别较大 ,直接原因在于 CCM3中降水季节内振荡与 SST变化的相关关系不正确 ,而更根本的问题在于大气模式无法反映资料分析发现的季节内时间尺度的 SST与大气的相互作用。 相似文献
66.
基于向外长波辐射、降水、大气再分析资料和 HYCOM(HYbridCoordinateOcean Model)盐度等资料,研究了 MJO(Madden-JulianOscillation,热带大气季节内振荡)对南海夏季降水的调制,并初步探讨了其对海洋表层盐度的影响。结果显示:MJO 对南海夏季降水有显著的调制作用,导致南海降水具有强的季节内变化,其最显著周期为45d。降水季节内信号在泰国湾北部、吕宋岛以西和台湾岛西南等迎风坡区域较强,而在越南外海的安南山脉背风区域较弱,且降水信号会随着 MJO 信号向东北方向移动。MJO 对流抑制(活跃)中心所在区域,低层大气辐聚减弱(增强),中层大气对流减弱(增强),导致降水减少(增加);此外,MJO 对流抑制(活跃)中心伴随的反气旋式(气旋式)环流会改变风场,风场减弱(增强)使得迎风区域的降水减少(增加)。MJO 引起的降水异常进一步影响南海盐度,南海表层盐度也有明显的季节内变化特征,其显著周期和降水基本一致,为47d,且盐度异常信号也随降水异常向东北移动。本研究结果有助于进一步了解南海降水和表层盐度的季节内变化特征。 相似文献
67.
YUAN Xin;WANG Qingye;FENG Junqiao;HU Dunxin 《海洋湖沼学报（英文）》2021,39(6):2127-2143
Traditionally, the estimated volume transport of the North Equatorial Current/Undercurrent (NEC/NEUC) is based on geostrophic equations and/or model results; however, direct observational evidence has not been acquired. We focused on one-year mooring observation data collected along 130°E and calculated the NEC/NEUC volume transport and explore its variability. Results show that the mean NEC and NEUC volume transports calculated from the mean velocity structures in the upper 950 m are 39 Sv and 6 Sv, respectively. Analysis of daily mooring data indicated that the volume transport of the NEC is approximately 52 (±14) Sv and the volume transport of the NEUC is approximately 18 (±13) Sv. A significant 40-day variation existed for the volume transport of both the NEC and NEUC. Overall, the intraseasonal variability of the NEC is vertically coherent with that of the NEUC. Observations indicated that the NEUC has three cores centered at approximately 8.5°N (~500 m), 12.5°N (~700 m), and 17.5°N (~900 m), of which the middle core (12.5°N) is the strongest. The 40-day variability of the NEC and NEUC is related to the variability of local wind stress curl anomalies among various Madden‐Julian Oscillation phases. When local wind field generates a negative (positive) wind stress curl anomaly, a weaker NEC (NEUC) and stronger NEUC (NEC) would occur. 相似文献
68.
赤道西风爆发现象(西风爆发)是指赤道表面西风突然增大的现象,已有研究表明赤道太平洋西风爆发与ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) 有密切的关系。本文就西风爆发现象在CMIP5中的模拟情况进行了相关评价,并将其与观测结果进行对比;同时对西风爆发与ENSO的关系、西风爆发与MJO的关系进行了细致的分析与评价。研究结果表明,模式可以很好地再现西风爆发随厄尔尼诺事件发生而向东移动的现象,这主要是由于赤道太平洋西风爆发与赤道太平洋海表温度有很好的对应关系。在大部分模式中,西风爆发领先于厄尔尼诺的发生,并对厄尔尼诺的发展有着相应的影响。与前人的研究结果不同,利用蒙特卡洛验证法证明MJO不能显著地增加西风爆发发生的概率,这一点也在大部分CMIP5模式中有所体现。 相似文献
69.
Effect of vertical overturning circulation scale and moist static energy tendency on MJO phase speed 
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下载免费PDF全文 本文通过对1979-2019年ERA-I再分析资料进行诊断分析,研究了MJO垂直环流(VOC)纬向尺度和湿静力能(MSE)趋势纬向不对称性对MJO传播速度的综合影响.研究结果表明,MJO传播速度与VOC的纬向尺度和MSE趋势纬向梯度之间存在显著的正相关关系.基于上述两个参数,本文建立了线性回归模型,该模型可以较好的估计... 相似文献
70.
The features of the MJO during two types of El Ni no events are investigated in this paper using the daily NCEP-2reanalysis data, OLR data from NOAA, and Real-time Multivariate MJO index for the period 1979–2012. The results indicate that the MJO exhibits distinct features during eastern Pacific(EP) El Ni no events, as compared to central Pacific(CP) El Ni no events. First, the intensity of the MJO is weakened during EP El Ni no winters from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, but enhanced during CP El Ni no winters. Second, the range of the MJO eastward propagation is different during the two types of El Ni no events. During EP El Ni no winters, the MJO propagates eastwards to 120?W, but only to 180?during CP El Ni no winters. Finally, the frequency in eight phases of the MJO may be affected by the two types of El Ni no. Phases 2 and 3 display a stronger MJO frequency during EP El Ni no winters, but phases 4 and 5 during CP El Ni no winters. 相似文献