Prehistorical frequency of high‐energy marine inundation events driven by typhoons in the Bay of Bangkok (Thailand), interpreted from coastal carbonate boulders

Rapidly rising populations of low‐lying megacities in Asia mean that understanding the potential risk of coastal flooding by storm surge is of paramount concern. The city of Bangkok and the wider Chao Phraya River delta at the head of the Gulf of Thailand is a region topographically vulnerable to coastal flooding, but without the record of a high‐energy marine inundation (HEMI) event in historical time owing to the atypical path that a typhoon must take to be able to produce such an event. This work builds upon previous findings that identified coastal depositional evidence for HEMI events in the form of coastal carbonate boulders (CCBs) located on Ko Larn Island in the eastern Bay of Bangkok. The HEMI events were most likely driven by typhoons and the CCBs are therefore interpreted as typhoon deposits. Through uranium/thorium dating, it is revealed that from ad 1400 to ad 1600 the Bay of Bangkok possibly experienced a phase of relatively heightened storm impact. During this period, the frequency of typhoon‐driven HEMI events was approximately four events in 200 years. Waves generated onshore minimum flow velocities (MFVs) in excess of 5 m/s. Such exceptional MFVs are unlikely to be produced during the annual northeast monsoon, but are consistent with typhoon‐impacted coastlines elsewhere in the tropical Asia–Pacific region where similar CCB evidence exists. Since ad 1600, the Bay of Bangkok has enjoyed a relatively quiescent phase, recording less frequent HEMI events and of lower magnitude. However, the re‐occurrence of a typhoon‐driven HEMI event on the scale of the prehistorical events that emplaced carbonate boulders at elevation on Ko Larn Island would threaten low‐lying coasts in the Bay of Bangkok, including the Chao Phraya delta, with potentially damaging inundation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The morphological response of foredunes at a breached barrier system to winter 2013/2014 storms on the southwest coast of Ireland

The level of storminess in Ireland during the winter of 2013/2014 was exceptional, the effects of which cost the Irish state in excess of €260 million in infrastructure repair and insurance claims. In Ireland, a lack of coastal process data from monitoring programmes means that the response of protective barrier coasts to such events remains largely un‐investigated. This study addresses this issue through an examination of the geomorphic impacts of recent storms, including those that occurred during the winter 2013/2014, on a breached barrier on the southwest coast of Ireland. Data from a two‐year terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) monitoring campaign shows that the winter 2013/2014 events caused a major (>50 m) dune recession at Rossbehy, County Kerry. Results from a simple linear regression analysis indicate storm duration plays an important role in the removal of foredunes at the study site. Given the fact that the frequency of intense storms in the vicinity of Ireland is forecast to increase within the next century, a scientific understanding of barrier response to such events is critical to inform sound management practices. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Morphological records of storm floods exemplified by the impact of the 1872 Baltic storm on a sandy spit system in south‐eastern Denmark

Beach‐ridge systems are important geo‐archives providing evidence for past wave climate including catastrophic storm flood events. This study investigates the morphological impacts of the 1872 Baltic storm flood on a beach‐ridge system (sandy spit) in south‐eastern Denmark and evaluates the frequency of extreme storm flood events in the area over a longer time perspective. This paper combines field studies of morphology and sedimentary deposits, studies of historical maps, digital terrain model, ground‐penetrating radar profiles, and luminescence dating. Sea water reached 2.8 m above mean sea level (amsl) during peak inundation and, based on studies of the morphological impacts of the 1872 storm flood, the event can be divided into four phases. Phase 1: increasing mean water levels and wave activity at the beach brought sediments from the beach (intertidal bars and normal berm) higher up in the profile and led to the formation of a storm‐berm. Phase 2: water levels further increased and sediment in the upper part of the profile continued to build up the storm‐berm. Phase 3: water levels now reached the top of the dune ridge and were well above the storm‐berm level. Sea water was breaching the dune ridge at several sites and wash‐over fans were generated until a level where the mean water level had dropped too much. Phase 4: the non‐vegetated wash‐over fans functioned as pathways for aeolian sand transport and relatively high dunes were formed in particular along the margins of the fan where aeolian sand was trapped by existing vegetation. The studied beach‐ridge system records about 4500 years of accumulation; the storm flood sediments described are unique suggesting that the 1872 Baltic storm flood event was an extreme event. Thus studies of beach‐ridge systems form a new source for understanding storm surge risk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NO冷却率在连续磁暴中对热层密度的影响

基于CHAMP卫星加速度计数据,对2002年4月和2004年11月两个连续磁暴事件期间400 km高度热层大气密度时空变化特征进行了分析,结果表明,地磁扰动相近的连续磁暴发生时,热层密度对第一个磁暴的响应幅度明显大于后续磁暴;磁暴间歇期有时会出现密度低值;磁暴恢复相,热层密度先于ap指数快速恢复至暴前水平,甚至更低;热层大气经验模式NRLMSISE00的预测结果中没有包含这些现象.利用TIMED卫星SABER辐射计数据进一步分析同时段100~155 km高度NO冷却率的变化特点,NO冷却率在暴时的增大滞后热层密度2~6 h;磁暴恢复相,NO冷却率保持在较高水平,弛豫时间远大于热层密度.暴时增强的NO冷却率及其缓慢的恢复是导致热层密度响应幅度变小的原因,间歇期是否出现热层密度异常低值也与NO冷却率的增幅有关.     

闽北一次初春强降水的成因分析

利用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、新一代天气雷达资料,对2012年3月6日-7日福建省北部地区暴雨成因进行诊断分析。结果表明:此次降水过程在高空西风槽南下带来的冷空气与西南暖湿气流交汇的背景下产生,暴雨区位于低空西南急流北侧、低层切变南侧、地面冷锋附近;强降水落区位于层结不稳定的湿区中,低层辐合、高层辐散有利于对流发展;干冷空气的侵入时高层高值位涡库向北向下伸展,促使中低层气旋涡度发展,从而导致强降水的发生;雷达回波分析表明,低层暖平流、高层冷平流、区域上空辐合形势都有利于对流性降水的产生。     

2011年贵州两次降雪天气过程的多普勒雷达产品特征分析

利用常规观测和新一代多普勒天气雷达回波资料对2011年1月17日至20日贵州省出现的两次降雪天气进行详细的特征分析。结果表明：贵州降雪回波强度一般〈30dBz,中心强度普遍在30-40dBz之间,反射率因子的分布梯度不大;但降雪过程中夹杂冰粒的时候,回波中心强度能达到50dBz。降雪回波的顶高一般在7km以下,其中顶高5-7km的情况占到60％左右,发展旺盛时回波顶高可达到8km以上。降雪回波径向速度的等值线比较密集,沿径向梯度变化大。“牛眼”状回波是降雪回波的一个典型特征,“牛眼”状回波正负速度中心值的大小与降雪量存在一定的正比关系。风廓线产品的近地面层风向对于预报降水类型有明显的指示意义,当风廓线产品上近地面1．5km高度的风向由东偏南转为东偏北时,地面冷平流取代暖平流,雨夹雪向纯雪转换,反之,暖平流取代冷平流,则是纯雪向雨夹雪转换,或者降雪减弱消失。     

A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS

A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.     

STATISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MCSS OVER ASIA AND WESTERN PACIFIC REGION

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are severe disaster-producing weather systems. Previous attempts of MCS census are made by examining infrared satellite imageries artificially, with subjectivity involved in the process unavoidably. This method is also inefficient and time-consuming. The disadvantages make it impossible to do MCS census over Asia and western Pacific region (AWPR) with an extended span of time, which is not favorable for gaining a deeper insight into these systems. In this paper, a fire-new automatic MCS identification (AMI) method is used to capture four categories of MCSs with different sizes and shapes from numerical satellite infrared data. 47,468 MCSs are identified over Asia and western Pacific region during the warm season (May to October) from 1995 to 2008. Based on this database, MCS characteristics such as shape, size, duration, velocity, geographical distribution, intermonthly variation, and lifecycle are studied. Results indicate that the number of linear MCSs is 2.5 times that of circular MCSs. The former is of a larger size while the latter is of a longer duration. The 500 hPa steering flow plays an important role in the MCS movement. MCSs tend to move faster after they reach the maximum extent. Four categories of MCS have similar characteristics of geographical distribution and intermonthly variation. Basically, MCSs are zonally distributed, with three zones weakening from south to north. The intermonthly variation of MCSs is related to the seasonal adjustment of the large-scale circulation. As to the MCSs over China, they have different lifecycle characteristics over different areas. MCSs over plateaus and hill areas, with only one peak in their lifecycle curves, tend to form in the afternoon, mature at nightfall, and dissipate at night. On the other hand, MCSs over plains, which have several peaks in their lifecycle curves, may form either in the afternoon or at night, whereas MCSs over the oceans tend to form at midnight. Affected by the sea-land breeze circulation, MCSs over coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi always come into being at about 1500 or 1600 (local time), while MCSs over the Sichuan Basin, affected by the mountain-valley breeze circulation, generally initiate nocturnally.     

华北地区不同下垫面对沙尘暴的影响

1 Introduction Sand-dust storm is a large-scale transporting process of fine particles under the intense m ovem entofcurrent.These fine particles are induced by wind erosion on land surface (Dong, 2000).Sand-dust storm is not only a crucial environmental …