Including prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling

In this paper we propose a methodology to include prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters for modelling the soil moisture content in the unsaturated zone. Laboratory measurements on undisturbed soil cores were used to estimate the moisture retention curve and hydraulic conductivity curve parameters. The soil moisture content was measured at 25 locations along three transects and at three different depths (surface, 30 and 60 cm) on an 80×20 m hillslope for the year 2001. Soil cores were collected in 84 locations situated in three profile pits along the hillslope. For the estimation of the effective soil hydraulic parameters the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values was used as prior information. A two-horizon single column 1D MIKE SHE model based on Richards' equation was set-up for nine soil moisture measurement locations along the middle transect of the hillslope. The goal of the model is to simulate the soil moisture profile at each location. The shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm has been applied to estimate effective model parameters using either wide parameter ranges, referred to as the ‘no-prior’ case, or the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values as prior information (‘prior’ case). When the prior information is incorporated in the SCE optimisation the goodness-of-fit of the model predictions is only slightly worse compared to when no-prior information is incorporated. However, the effective parameter estimates are more realistic when the prior information is incorporated. For both the no-prior and prior case the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure (GLUE) was subsequently used to estimate the uncertainty bounds (UB) on the model predictions. When incorporating the prior information more parameter sets were accepted for the estimation of the predictive uncertainty and the parameter values were more realistic. Moreover, UB better enclosed the observations. Thus, incorporating prior information in GLUE reduces the amount of model evaluations needed to obtain sufficient behavioural parameter sets. The results indicate the importance of prior information in the SCE and GLUE parameter estimation strategies.     

Theory of integer equivariant estimation with application to GNSS

Carrier phase ambiguity resolution is the key to high-precision global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning and navigation. It applies to a great variety of current and future models of GPS, modernized GPS and Galileo. The so-called fixed baseline estimator is known to be superior to its float counterpart in the sense that its probability of being close to the unknown but true baseline is larger than that of the float baseline, provided that the ambiguity success rate is sufficiently close to its maximum value of one. Although this is a strong result, the necessary condition on the success rate does not make it hold for all measurement scenarios. It is discussed whether or not it is possible to take advantage of the integer nature of the ambiguities so as to come up with a baseline estimator that is always superior to both its float and its fixed counterparts. It is shown that this is indeed possible, be it that the result comes at the price of having to use a weaker performance criterion. The main result of this work is a Gauss–Markov-like theorem which introduces a new minimum variance unbiased estimator that is always superior to the well-known best linear unbiased (BLU) estimator of the Gauss–Markov theorem. This result is made possible by introducing a new class of estimators. This class of integer equivariant estimators obeys the integer remove–restore principle and is shown to be larger than the class of integer estimators as well as larger than the class of linear unbiased estimators. The minimum variance unbiased estimator within this larger class is referred to as the best integer equivariant (BIE) estimator. The theory presented applies to any model of observation equations having both integer and real-valued parameters, as well as for any probability density function the data might have. AcknowledgementsThis contribution was finalized during the authors stay, as a Tan Chin Tuan Professor, at the Nanyang Technological Universitys GPS Centre (GPSC) in Singapore. The hospitality of the GPSCs director Prof Law Choi Look and his colleagues is greatly appreciated.     

早型旋涡星系M81 (NGC 3031)的形态学解构研究

利用星系解构软件GALFIT通过面亮度轮廓拟合对近邻早型旋涡星系M81 (NGC 3031)进行形态学解构,旨在探究M81星系的结构组成并对其进行形态学量化.通过6种解构模式,对M81进行了不同复杂程度的结构分解,其中最复杂的解构模式包含核球、盘、外旋臂、内旋臂、星系核5个子结构.研究结果显示, M81有一个Sérsic指数约为5.0的经典核球,其形态和光度在不同解构模式中均保持稳定; M81星系盘的Sérsic指数约为1.2,但它的形态参数和光度与是否分解内旋臂相关.不同子结构的组合对作为混合体的星系整体的形态有不可忽视的影响.星系解构的结果提供了不同解构模式适用性的建议:其中核球+盘+星系核的三成分解构适用于大样本星系的核-盘研究;而考虑旋臂的复杂解构则适合于对星系子结构的精确测量,如小样本(或个源)研究.基于Spitzer-The Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) 4.5μm的单波段图像的形态学解构研究是后续一系列研究的开始,在此基础上未来将会对M81进行多波段解构,同时研究不同子结构的光谱能量分布和星族性质,并推断M81各子结构的形成历史和演化过程.     

XMM–Newton Reflection Grating Spectrometer observations of the prototypical starburst galaxy M82

We present results from XMM–Newton Reflection Grating Spectrometer observations of the prototypical starburst galaxy M82. These high-resolution spectra represent the best X-ray spectra to date of a starburst galaxy. A complex array of lines from species over a wide range of temperatures is seen, the most prominent being due to Lyman α emission from abundant low- Z elements such as N, O, Ne, Mg and Si. Emission lines from helium-like charge states of the same elements are also seen in emission, as are strong lines from the entire Fe L series. Further, the O vii line complex is resolved and is seen to be consistent with gas in collisional ionization equilibrium.
Spectral fitting indicates emission from a large mass of gas with a differential emission measure over a range of temperatures (from ∼ 0.2 to ∼ 1.6 keV, peaking at ∼ 0.7 keV), and evidence for super-solar abundances of several elements is indicated. Spatial analysis of the data indicates that low-energy emission is more extended to the south and east of the nucleus than to the north and west. Higher energy emission is far more centrally concentrated.     

A New Damage Index

A new damage index to estimate damage to buildings relies on construction costs per square metre, and a replacement ratio which approximates costs relative to the cost of replacing a median-sized family home. Building damage is estimated against a five-point scale with Central Damage Values at 0.02, 0.1, 0.4, 0.75 and 1.0 of the replacement cost.Damage is expressed as damage in House Equivalents (HE) = Replacement Ratio × Central Damage Value. The Damage Index = log₂ (HE) provides a simple 0–20 scale covering total damage of less than 1 HE to>1 million HE. For all natural hazard impacts in Australia DI is less than 12.Where the only damage data available are of lesser quality Generic or Qualitative Damage Indices (GDI and QDI) can be used. The various advantages and limitations of the Damage Index are discussed.     

Ultraluminous X-ray source 1E 0953.8+6918 (M81 X-9): an intermediate-mass black hole candidate and its environs

We present a ROSAT and ASCA study of the Einstein source X-9 and its relation to a shock-heated shell-like optical nebula in a tidal arm of the M81 group of interacting galaxies. Our ASCA observation of the source shows a flat and featureless X-ray spectrum well described by a multicolour disc blackbody model. The source most likely represents an optically thick accretion disc around an intermediate-mass black hole  ( M ∼10² M_⊙)  in its high/soft state, similar to other variable ultraluminous X-ray sources observed in nearby disc galaxies. Using constraints derived from both the innermost stable orbit around a black hole and the Eddington luminosity, we find that the black hole is fast-rotating and that its mass is between ∼80 M_⊙–1.5×10² M_⊙. The inferred bolometric luminosity of the accretion disc is ∼(1.1×10⁴⁰ erg s⁻¹)/(cos  i ). Furthermore, we find that the optical nebula is very energetic and may contain large amounts of hot gas, accounting for a soft X-ray component as indicated by archival ROSAT PSPC data. The nebula is apparently associated with X-9; the latter may be powering the former and/or they could be formed in the same event (e.g. a hypernova). Such a connection, if confirmed, could have strong implications for understanding both the birth of intermediate-mass black holes and the formation of energetic interstellar structures.     

水下运载体重力辅助惯性导航系统仿真平台

扩展卡尔曼滤波技术可以利用序列观测重力异常数据以及航行区域重力异常基准图来校正惯性导航系统漂移误差。针对因重力测量环境的变化、测量仪器扰动等因素造成的重力异常观测噪声不确定问题,提出了基于量测残差自适应估计观测噪声协方差（residual-based adaptive estimation,RAE）的重力异常滤波匹配算法;设计了一组并行卡尔曼滤波器,并简化了最优滤波器的选择准则。不同重力特征区域的实验表明,该算法能够有效降低惯性导航系统经纬向漂移误差,提高系统的导航定位精度。     

基于中国剩余定理的测距算法仿真与性能分析

对目前已有的4种中国剩余定理的求解方法,即传统中国剩余定理算法、闭式解的中国剩余定理算法、高效中国剩余定理算法以及多频中国剩余定理算法,进行了较详细的理论分析与性能比较。将上述算法应用于无线传感与激励网络中对未知节点进行测距,设计了相应的测距算法,分析了各算法的性能特点,并通过仿真实验分析比较了各自在估计精度、计算复杂度以及鲁棒性等方面的差异,并讨论了各算法的适用场景。     

A Bayesian method for linear, inequality-constrained adjustment and its application to GPS positioning

One of the typical approaches to linear, inequality-constrained adjustment (LICA) is to solve a least-squares (LS) problem subject to the linear inequality constraints. The main disadvantage of this approach is that the statistical properties of the estimate are not easily determined and thus no general conclusions about the superiority of the estimate can be made. A new approach to solving the LICA problem is proposed. The linear inequality constraints are converted into prior information on the parameters with a uniform distribution, and consequently the LICA problem is reformulated into a Bayesian estimation problem. It is shown that the LS estimate of the LICA problem is identical to the Bayesian estimate based on the mode of the posterior distribution. Finally, the Bayesian method is applied to GPS positioning. Results for four field tests show that, when height information is used, the GPS phase ambiguity resolution can be improved significantly and the new approach is feasible.