Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

2003年6、7月西昌二次4.8级地震的预测与分析

2003年6月17日和7月10日,先后在四川省西昌市和西昌-昭觉间发生2次ML4 8级强有感地震.对于这2次地震,我们曾作了较好的中期和短期预测.但是对于6月17日发生的第一次ML4 8级地震,未能做出临震预测;对于第二次地震,则在7月1日向上级填报的周会商表中作了明确的临震预测,7月10日,在西昌-昭觉间发生了ML4.8级地震.根据西昌地震遥测台网各子台的P波初动求解震源机制,结合地震所处的地质构造以及现场烈度考察圈定出的结果分析,认为这二次地震是由安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂、凉山断裂所围成的凉山小菱形块体活动的结果.     

基于“双差法”地震精确定位研究2002年12月14日玉门5.9级地震的发震断层和发震机制

利用双差地震定位方法对2002年12月14日玉门5．9级地震主震和余震序列进行了精确定位，在此基础上讨论了本次地震的发震断层和发震机制。     

2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震同震形变场特征的初步分析a

利用差分干涉雷达测量技术获取的宏观震中区的同震形变场，结合对地震活动性、震源机制、野外考察等资料分析，对昆仑山口西8.1级地震同震形变场特征进行了研究. 结果表明:宏观震中位于库赛湖东北侧，宏观震中区发震断层可分为两个形变中心区域，其中西段长约42 km，东段长约48 km，整个发震断层主破裂段长90 km；由干涉形变条纹分布格局可清楚地判断出发震断层的左旋走滑特征；断层两盘变形特征不同，南盘变形程度明显大于北盘；宏观震中附近最大斜距向位移量为288.4 cm，最小斜距向位移量为224.0 cm，宏观震中发震断层最大左旋水平位错为738.1 cm，最小地面左旋水平位错为551.8 cm.      

云南地区4级地震频度异常特征与强震关系研究

对云南地区18次MS≥6强震事件前中、小地震活动过程进行了分析,发现在这些地震发生前1—3年近场区2°×2°范围内4级地震频度基本上出现了显著增强现象,可以用4级地震年累计频度进行定量描述。通过全时空的扫描,确定年累计频度N≥4为异常阈值,该指标通过了置信度97.5%的R值内符检验。并用调整单元对强震附近4级地震活动增强现象给予了物理解释。     

建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考

结合工作实践，就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则，评估区环境条件分析深度的把握，现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点，土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准，提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。     

GOCE Gravity Field Processing Strategy

A processing strategy and the corresponding software architecture for the processing of GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) observables is presented and described, with the major objective to compute a high-accuracy, high-resolution spherical harmonic model of the Earth's gravity field. The combination of two numerical solution strategies, i.e. the rigorous solution of the corresponding large normal equation systems applying parallel processing (on a PC cluster) as the core solver, and the fast semianalytic approach as a quick-look gravity field analysis (QL-GFA) tool, is proposed. Such a method fusion benefits from the advantages of the individual components: the rigorous inversion of the system providing also the full variance-covariance information, and the quickness enabling the consecutive production of intermediate gravity field solutions, for the purpose to analyse partial and incomplete data sets and to derive a diagnosis of the performance of the GOCE measurement system. The functionality and operability of the individual components are demonstrated in the framework of a closed loop simulation, which is based on a realistic mission scenario both in terms of the orbit configuration and the coloured measuring noise. Special concern is given to the accuracy of the recovered coefficients, the numerical behaviour, the required computing time, and the particular role of the individual modules within the processing chain. In the case of the core solver, it is demonstrated that the assembling and rigorous solution of large normal equation systems can be handled by using Beowulf clusters within a reasonable computing time. The application of the quick-look tool to partial data sets with short-term data gaps is demonstrated on the basis of several case studies. Additionally, the spectral analysis of the residuals of the adjustment is presented as a valuable tool for the verification of the noise characteristics of the GOCE gradiometer.     

On the Incorporation of the Effect of Crustal Structure into Empirical Strong Ground Motion Estimation

This article has two purposes. Firstly, a validation exercise of the modal summation technique for the computation of synthetic strong-motion records is performed for two regions of Europe (Umbria-Marche and south Iceland), using a variety of region specific crustal structure models, by comparing the predicted ground motion amplitudes with observed motions. It is found that the rate of decay of ground motions is well predicted by the theoretical decay curves but that the absolute size of the ground motions is underpredicted by the synthetic time-histories. This is thought to be due to the presence of low-velocity surface layers that amplify the ground motions but are not included in the crustal structure models used to compute the synthetic time-histories. Secondly, a new distance metric based on the computed theoretical decay curves is introduced which should have the ability to model the complex decay of strong ground motions. The ability of this new distance metric to reduce the associated scatter in empirically derived equations for the estimation of strong ground motions is tested. It is found that it does not lead to a reduction in the scatter but this is thought to be due to the use of crustal structure models that are not accurate or detailed enough for the regions studied. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio…