基于混沌时间序列的地下水位多步预测模型

利用相空间重构技术，并借助G—P算法、C-C方法和Wolf方法从宁陵地区地下水位一维时间序列中提取Lyapunov指数，结果表明此时间序列具有混沌特征。计算了宁陵地区地下水位时间序列的关联维数、时间延迟和最大Lyapunov指数，将局域加权一阶多步预测模型应用于地下水位预测。预测表明，此模型可有效应用于地下水位时间序列的多步预测。     

Influence of land use on the persistence effect of riverine phosphorus

The persistence effect contribution of legacy nutrients is often cited as a reason for little or no improvement in water quality following extensive implementation of watershed nutrient mitigation actions, yet there is limited knowledge concerning factors influencing this response, often called the “persistence effect.” Here, we adopted detrended fluctuation analysis and Spearman analysis methods to assess the influence of land use on the watershed phosphorus (P) persistence effect, using monthly water quality records during 2010–2016 in 13 catchments within a drinking water reservoir watershed in eastern China. Detrended fluctuation analysis was used to calculate the Hurst exponent α to assess watershed legacy P characteristics (α  ≈ 0.5, α  > 0.5, and α  < 0.5 indicate white noise, persistence, and anti‐persistence, respectively). Results showed weak to strong P persistence (0.60–0.81) in the time series of riverine P in the 13 catchments. The Hurst exponent α had negative relationships with agricultural land (R = ?.47, p = .11) and developed land (R = ?.67, p = .01) and a positive relationship with forest land cover (R = .48, p = .10). The persistence effect of riverine P was mainly determined by retention ability (biogeochemical legacy) and migration efficiency (hydrological legacy). A catchment with strong retention capacity (e.g., biomass uptake/storage and soil PO₄ sorption) and low migration efficiency results in a stronger persistence effect for riverine P. In practice, source control is more effective in catchments with weak persistence, whereas sink control (e.g., riparian buffers and wetlands) is preferred in catchments with strong persistence effects.     

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.     

沈阳大气气溶胶光学特性及其影响因子

利用2010年3—10月沈阳大气成分监测站CE－318太阳光度计观测资料,计算沈阳大气气溶胶光学厚度和波长指数等大气光学特性参数,结合地面气象观测资料,分析大气气溶胶光学特性及其影响因子。结果表明：沈阳气溶胶光学厚度在3—6月较高,8月较低,9—10月气溶胶光学厚度略有增加;除4月和8月外,气溶胶光学厚度与风速基本呈反相关;气溶胶光学厚度与可吸入颗粒物（particulate matter,PM）质量浓度变化趋势基本一致;气溶胶光学厚度日平均值距平的绝对值、改变率均与降水强度成正比;地面能见度与气溶胶光学厚度呈负相关。由气溶胶浑浊度系数计算的能见度在4—6月与实际观测的能见度基本吻合,由气溶胶标高计算的水平能见度整体小于实际观测的水平能见度。     

HEIFE绿洲和沙漠地区大气边界层湍流混沌特性研究

利用“黑河实验”期间张掖、沙漠观测站加强观测期间１９９１年６月２０日０９：００至１９９１年１０月２日０９：００时段内水平风速的观测资料,计算分析了有关测量混沌的特征量：关联维数。Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数和Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｗ熵。     

含泥质致密砂岩储层三孔隙导电模型

泥质的存在及复杂的孔隙结构导致致密砂岩储层导电规律的复杂性,给其饱和度评价带来了极大的困难,而储层饱和度评价的关键在于岩电参数的准确获取.前人关于储层胶结指数m的研究大多侧重于复杂孔隙结构的影响,对泥质影响则涉及较少.笔者基于Waxman-Smith泥质砂岩导电模型及Aguilera三孔隙导电模型,利用串并联导电理论建立了含泥质致密砂岩三孔隙导电模型,提出了准确描述由泥质、裂缝、非连通孔洞构成的致密砂岩导电规律的方法.采用单因素分析法研究泥质及复杂孔隙结构对胶结指数m的影响,发现m随着裂缝孔隙度的增大而减小,随着孤立孔洞孔隙度的增大而增大,随着泥质含量的增大而减小.岩芯实验数据验证表明,文中给出的模型能够准确描述含泥质致密砂岩储层的导电规律以及定量评价胶结指数m.     

北京地区气候变量的多分形特征研究

在气候系统的变量时间序列中往往存在着不同尺度间的自相似结构,这种自相似结构,又称为分形的特征.本文运用多分形去趋势波动分析方法(MF-DFA),分析北京市近50年来不同气象变量的逐日序列,并用一个扩展的二项式串级模式来分别估计其多分形谱.结果表明,平均气温等变量表现出多重分形的特征,并且多分形谱宽一致.而气温日较差和日照时数则表现出单分形的特征.且这种分形特征与长程记忆性相关,为中长期气候预测提供了理论基础.     

地震过程中地形变的Lyapunov指数变化

Lyapunov指数是判断动力学系统演化趋势的主要依据之一。本文根据Lyapunov指数的定义,导出了形变能到达临界状态时地壳中弹性模量与应变状态之间的关系,计算了青海门源6.4级地震过程中不同弹性模量所对应的Lyapunov指数,得出以下结论:(1)在Lyapunov指数稳定的意义下形变能的稳定性与应变张量ε和弹性矩阵D的乘积有关,当2ε~TD大于单位矩阵I时,形变能随应变的变化不稳定;当2ε~TD小于单位矩阵I时,形变能系统稳定。(2)在门源6.4级地震过程中,震后弹性地形变动力学系统的稳定性大于震前的稳定性。     

Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model, we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics. Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments: the random perturbation(RP), the bred vector(BV), the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF), and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) methods. Results show that,regardless of the method used, the ensemble ave...     

砂岩全应力-应变曲线二分段特征的Lyapunov定性分析

提出砂岩全应力.应变曲线的二分法原则,应用混沌动力学Lyapunov评价准则定性研究得到了曲线新的分段特征:试验曲线的所有峰前段均处于混沌状态,证明岩石节理裂隙这一复杂系统的非线性状态演化是客观存在、线性是近似的;节理裂隙系统有85%演化到峰后段时呈有序定常态,表明节理裂隙贯通后的岩石已呈现宏观破坏,线性特征明显:围压作用将延长节理裂隙的贯通过程,使之在峰后呈抵抗性破坏特征;峰后应变长度占总应变长度的2/3及以上时,该阶段节理裂隙系统的状态将主导其演化全过程的状态特征.