海底热流长期观测系统研制进展

浅海和俯冲海沟等海域,不仅是矿产和油气资源主潜力区,也是构造地震频发区,其浅表热流和深部温度信息对于了解板块俯冲和岩浆活动等过程至关重要.这些区域浅层地温场和热流场受到底水温度波动（BTV）强烈扰动,其背景热流需由长期观测来获取.在全面分析了国内外海底热流长期观测技术特点后,我们提出了系缆式海底热流长期观测方案,2013年起陆续开展了部分核心技术的预研究及一系列海底、湖底及浅孔试验.结果表明：（1）自主研制的长周期低功耗微型测温单元,在2~36℃的环境下可连续观测1年;系缆式投放与回收方案即使在地形陡峭、1.5 kn流速及无动力定位等条件下仍然可行.（2）南海北部BTV总体随水深变浅而增强,在浅水区对浅层地温场扰动不可忽略.例如,在水深2600~3200 m和850~1200 m海域分别为0.025~0.053℃（17天内）、0.182~0.417℃（2天内）,而台西南盆地北坡（水深763 m）夏季的海底热流由浅表的0.69 W·m^-2转变为0.83 m以深的-0.25~-0.05 W·m^-2.（3）兴伊措和湖光岩玛珥湖BTV向深部传导过程中其幅度逐渐减弱、相位滞后,进而导致热流方向与强度随季节发生变化.而康定中谷浅层（7 m内）地温在不同深度处同步波动,且冬高（35~36℃）夏低（28~32℃）.推测为夏季大量降雨所致;其热流浅部低（0.504 W·m^-2）深部高（0.901 W·m^-2）,指示着鲜水河断裂带深部热流体上涌.这些预研究工作为后续系缆式海底热流长期观测系统的正式研制与应用奠定了扎实基础.

     

长白山天池火山区电性结构和岩浆系统

在长白山火山区及其附近 ,沿 5条伞状测线和 1条北西向测线进行了 6 1个大地电磁测深点的观测。用Robust等方法对观测资料进行了处理 ;应用阻抗张量分解方法消除了局部不均匀体的影响 ;计算了反映地下横向不均匀性的地磁感应矢量。利用RRI二维自动反演等技术对资料进行了解释。结果表明 :在近地表存在低阻体 ,并分别与长白山天池水体、聚龙泉温泉、锦江温泉及长白山山门附近的地下水相对应。在长白山天池及其以北和以东地区 ,约 12km深处存在电阻率很低的地质体 ,电阻率为 10到几十Ω·m ,可能是地壳岩浆囊。在测区范围内 ,地壳电性结构在南北方向存在着明显的横向变化 ,而东西方向相对均匀 ,变化比较平缓     

Low-frequency 3-D seismic survey of upper crustal magmatic intrusions in the northeastern Pannonian basin of Hungary

A specially designed 700-km² grid survey, deploying 1000 regularly distributed low-frequency seismic recording systems, successfully investigated one of the most complex geologic environments of the Pannonian basin. The wide-angle signals penetrated through over 1000 m of multi-phase igneous lithology and recognized, for the first time, the underlying enigmatic Permian to Early Triassic basement rocks. Tomographic inversion of the first arrival grid data resulted in determination of an accurate three-dimensional (3-D) velocity field, to a depth of 4 km. The anomalous changes of the spatial velocity data outline the regional extent of the Late Miocene magmatic intrusions, which are covered by over 2000 m of Mid-Miocene to Pleistocene clastics. Complex relationship was found between the surface potential data and the intrusive bodies. This multi-faceted geophysical data analysis established a functional technique for mapping a subsurface with intricate acoustic and structural complexity.     

The extent of desertification on Saudi Arabia

Desertification is the process that turns productive deserts into non-productive deserts as a result of poor land-management. Desertification reduces the ability of land to support life, affecting wild species, domestic animals, agricultural crops and humans. The reduction in plant cover that accompanies desertification leads to accelerated soil erosion by wind and water. South Africa is losing approximately 300–400 million tons of topsoil every year. As vegetation cover and soil layer are reduced, rain fall impact and run-off increases. This paper discusses the extent of desertification, its potential threat to sustained irrigated agriculture and possible measures adopted to control ongoing desertification processes to minimize the loss of agricultural productivity in an arid country such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

基于Low rank近似的黏弹性介质衰减补偿微地震逆时定位与裂缝成像

真实地下介质具有黏弹性,地震波在传播过程中会发生耗散与频散.忽视黏弹性介质的吸收衰减效应,逆时延拓过程中地震波将会出现振幅减弱、相位失真等现象,无法准确定位震源真实位置,因此需要对黏弹性介质中传播的波场进行衰减补偿,并通过采用合适的成像算子对微地震震源进行定位与裂缝成像.本文基于耗散与频散解耦的分数阶黏弹性波动方程模拟...     

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

热带大气季节内振荡和ENSO的相互关系

通过观测资料的分析和数值模拟,研究了热带大气季节内振荡与ＥＮＳＯ的相互关系．一方面,在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件发生之前,热带大气季节内振荡（尤其是在赤道中西太平洋地区）异常偏强,通过海一气相互作用它可能是Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ的一种重要激发机制．同时,赤道中西太平洋地区大气季节内振荡的异常加强同东亚中高纬度地区３０—６０天振荡的加强和强东亚冬季风有关．另一方面,ＥＮＳＯ对热带大气季节内振荡也有重要影响,在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ期间,热带大气季节内振荡明显减弱;其结构明显趋于正压性．     

2000年4月6日磁暴期间磁扰变化在低纬子午链的纬度效应

利用低纬地磁子午链上H和D分量的分均值数据 ,分析了 2 0 0 0年 4月 6日磁暴期间磁扰变化的纬度效应 .主要特点是 :(1 )急始期间H分量急始跃变幅随磁纬降低而减小 ,且急始变幅的下降率随磁纬降低而逐渐增大 ;(2 )初相期间H分量第 2峰值的变幅和初相持续时间随磁纬降低而减小 ;(3)主相期间H分量迅速减小 ,并随纬度降低最大变幅明显增加 ;(4)恢复相H分量呈两阶段上升趋势 ,前一阶段迅速上升 ,后一阶段上升速度明显减小 .最后对这些磁扰变化的纬度效应与空间电流体系的密切关系作了讨论 .     

地震周期的数值估计

模拟计算表明,地震有多种成因,多种因素的周期复合掩盖了地震的周期性。环太平洋地震带受板块运动、潮汐波动、厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜、海平面变化、剥蚀沉积、太平洋十年涛动等诸多因素影响,地震活动最为强烈,8．5级以上强震有明显的准60年和1800年潮汐波动周期。     

GeoSurveillance: a GIS-based system for the detection and monitoring of spatial clusters

This article introduces a software package named GeoSurveillance that combines spatial statistical techniques and GIS routines to perform tests for the detection and monitoring of spatial clustering. GeoSurveillance provides both retrospective and prospective tests. While retrospective tests are applied to spatial data collected for a particular point in time, prospective tests attempt to incorporate the dynamic nature of spatial patterns via analyzing time-series data to detect emergent clusters as quickly as possible. This article will outline the structure of GeoSurveillance as well as describe the statistical cluster detection methods implemented in the software. It concludes with an illustration of the use of the software to analyze the spatial pattern of low birth weights in Los Angeles County, California.