Inversion of arrival-times in a region of dilatancy anisotropy

Shear-wave splitting has been identified in many three-component seismograms from two separate field experiments on a section of the North Anatolian Fault in North-West Turkey. These observations are consistent with shear-wave propagation through a zone of extensive-dilitancy anisotropy. A preliminary attempt has been made to confirm this interpretation by simultaneously inverting suites of arrival-times for hypocentral locations and for parameters describing an anisotropic halfspace. Although the inversion procedure is not globally convergent, it is possible to recognize the true solution by systematically varying the initial conditions. Applied to selected data sets, the inversion defines several anisotropic models that fit the data significantly better than a simple isotropic model, and display the anisotropy required by the shear-wave splitting. However, most of these anisotropic models are not superior when they are used to individually locate events in a much larger data set. However, for each experiment, there is a single model that produces clearly superior locations for the larger data sets than those of other anisotropic or simple isotropic models. Both models display similar velocity variations which are characteristic of propagation through distributions of biplanar cracks displaying orthorhombic symmetry. The principal axes of the two models are oriented in similar directions and are within 20° of the principal axis of regional stress derived from fault-plane solutions. The solutions indicate low velocities close to the tensional axis, as would be expected in extensive-dilatancy anisotropy.     

西北太平洋热带气旋路径时间标度律的研究

时间标度计算表明，西北太平洋热带气旋路径是一个无标度性的系统，其关联方差谱遵从频率的－２￣－３次方幂律，不同背景下的路径系统均如此。由此得到的不同季节、不同地域的热带气旋路径可预报时间尺度基本上为３￣４ｄ，但异常热带气旋路径的可预报时间尺度则为１￣２ｄ。     

混沌系统的局域特征与可预报性

讨论了混沌系统的时间和空间的局域特征。首先分析了研究时间和空间局域特征的必要性。接着引进了有限时间不稳定和局域时间不稳定的概念，并对有关的计算问题进行了研究。对Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统的具体计算表明，随着轨线在混沌吸引子上的演变，局域不稳定特征有很大的变化，相应误差增长也有很大的变化。相应于误差迅速增长的轨线部分局限于很有限的相空间范围内，而且同误差增长缓慢的轨线部分占据的相空间区域截然可分。每一个例的可预报性依赖于轨线在相空间中所处的区域。混沌系统的这种局域特征可以是导致个例业务预报技巧之间有很大差别的主要原因。     

台风影响期间珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件

采用１９７６－１９８３年６－８月珠江三角洲地区受台风影响期间区内各站逐日的强风暴和降水资料以及广泛站的探空资料，用相关对比度分析方法，对台风环流中的珠江三角洲局地强风暴和大暴雨发生的环境条件进行统计诊断，得出台风影响珠江三角洲时这两种强天气发生的有利的环境条件，并发现二者在气压、风速、层结稳定度和中下层位势不稳定等方面显著不同。     

Further Studies Of Atmospheric Turbulence In Layers Near The Surface: Scaling The Tke Budget Above The Roughness Sublayer

The second of two experimental studies of the TKE budget conducted on sites of different roughness is described, and results are compared. The first took place within a shallow layer above a small field of mostly bare, cultivated soil; the second was carried out above a roughness sublayer of significant depth on an extensive plain of tall dry grass. Budget terms observed in the second study were scaled with a modified u which compensated for effects of an unusually large stress gradient and ensured that the _m functions would be collinear. By showing that the modification becomes negligible in smaller gradients, it is demonstrated that in normal conditions, budgets observed above significant roughness sublayers should be normalized by scaling in terms of the unreduced Reynolds stress at the sublayer's upper surface. This procedure is shown to be consistent with the expectation that TKE budgets in layers near the surface all scale in fundamentally the same way.Other findings include: (1) the fact that most _m functions previously reported are not quite collinear is attributed to a type of overspeeding known to affect three-cup anemometers; (2) revised _m functions, collinear and largely free of the effects of overspeeding, are determined from a well-established characteristic of the linear _m relation for the stable case; (3) data that define collinear _m functions can also be represented with single hyperbolic curves; (4) dissipation is found to be 10 to 15% too small to balance total TKE production in unstable and neutral conditions and to decrease with increasing z/L in thestable regime; and (5) new relations for based on the observed behaviour of the dissipation deficit provide an improved closure for the set of equations that express the budget terms as functions of _m and z/L.     

Selection of regional historical rainfall time series as input to urban drainage simulations at ungauged locations

It has become established practice during the past 20 years to use high-resolution historical rainfall time series as input to hydrological model packages for detailed simulation of urban drainage systems. However, sufficiently long rain series are rarely available from the exact catchment in question and simulations are hence often based on available rain series from other locations. Extreme rainfall properties of importance to the performance of urban storm drainage systems vary significantly even in regions with only minor physiographic differences. Part of this variation can be explained by regional variations of the mean annual rainfall and the remaining statistical residue can be interpreted as statistical uncertainty.In Denmark, more than 75 high-resolution rain gauges are installed across a total area of 43,000 m. About 40 gauges had sufficiently long records to be included in a comprehensive national investigation where newly developed statistical regionalisation procedures were used to model the regional variation of extreme rainfalls. On this basis, a spreadsheet model was made available for estimation of extreme design rainfalls and the associated uncertainty at any location in the country. Statistics were furthermore computed to classify historical rainfall time series according to the developed regional model, and this makes it possible to assess the uncertainty related with using different historical rain series for simulations at ungauged locations.This research indicates that use of historical point rainfall data at ungauged locations introduces a significant uncertainty that is largely overlooked in today's practice. The engineering recommendation is to select historical rain series based on an evaluation of the local physiographic characteristics (e.g., the mean annual rainfall) and a (pre-defined) desired safety level of the simulations.     

Seismicity, seismic input and site effects in the Sahel—Algiers region (North Algeria)

Algiers city is located in a seismogenic zone. To reduce the impact of seismic risk in this Capital city, a realistic modelling of the seismic ground motion (SGM) is conducted by using the hybrid method that combines the finite differences method and the modal summation. For this purpose, a complete database of geological, geophysical and earthquake data is constructed. A critical re-appraisal of the seismicity of the zone [2.25°E–3.50°E, 36.50°N–37.00°N] is performed and an earthquake list, for the period 1359–2002, is compiled. The analysis of existing and newly retrieved macroseismic information allowed the definition of earthquake parameters of macroseismic events for which a degree of reliability is assigned. Geological cross sections have been built up to model the SGM in the city, caused by the 1989 Mont-Chenoua and the 1924 Douéra earthquakes. Synthetic seismograms and response spectral ratio is produced for Algiers, and they show that the soft sediments in Algiers centre are responsible of the noticed amplification of the SGM.     

云顶充满度的特征分析

本文采用GMS－5红外云母，提取了一个描述云顶结构特征的参数一云顶充满度VS。结合地面观测资料，引入了云高参数DTS，得到并分析了参数VS随云高DTS的分布特征，同时还讨论了VS的天气学意义。     

An Evaluation Of Local Similarity At The Top Of The Mixed Layer Based On Large-Eddy Simulations

Local similarity, referred to as type II similarity,in the interfacial, stably-stratified layer at thetop of the atmospheric (or oceanic) mixed layer isdiscussed. Type II scales for scalars are based onthe local values of scalar gradients. Similaritypredictions are derived from the second-orderclosure model of Yamada and Mellor, and also fromsimilarity arguments. The obtainedformulation is verified for active and passive scalarsbased on the large-eddy simulation model.     

巴基斯坦地方地震台网的监控能力与可靠性

使用Bungum和Huseby方法对地方地震台网的监控能力和可靠性进行了分析。用震源位置的标准计算机码重新定位地震事件。由频率震级分布导出50％，90％和100％的累积监控能力阀值，对这些阀值23年内记录资料的监控能力水平作了估测。分析表明，在台网内发生的地震事件的台网100％监控能力水平为ML=1.7，从台网内固定实时震源对台网震源解精度作了分析。地震事件在台网内发生时，震中误差低于4km。最后讨论了地方地震台网连续运行期间影响监控能力的因素。