西藏鄂雅错盐湖砷和汞的分布特征研究

本研究对西藏鄂雅错盐湖和主要支流中不同形态的砷(亚砷酸盐As(Ⅲ)、砷酸盐As(Ⅴ)、一甲基砷酸MMA、二甲基砷酸DMA)和总汞(THg)含量进行了测定,并与主要水质参数进行相关性分析研究,结果表明鄂雅错盐湖As主要以As(Ⅴ)形态存在,其次分别为As(Ⅲ)、DMA和MMA,其中无机砷的含量明显大于有机砷。相比较其他砷的形态,盐湖中As(Ⅲ)与主要水质参数的相关性显著,与总溶解性固体(TDS)、总溶解态氮(DTN)呈显著的强正相关性,与水温、溶解氧 (DO)、氧化还原电位(Eh)、pH呈显著负相关性。总汞浓度较低,且与主要水质参数相关性不显著。通过风险评价发现鄂雅错湖水中砷存在一定的致癌健康风险,汞不存在风险。本研究丰富了西藏盐湖和支流水体中砷、汞分布特征及其环境影响因素的认识,对于环境保护具有一定的意义。     

Gender,Place, and Social Contacts: Understanding Awareness of Vulnerability to Terrorism

Abstract

Creating resiliency, accomplished in part by individuals preparing for disaster, is the primary strategy outside of law enforcement for responding to the threat of urban terrorism. Individuals prepare when they perceive a need to do so, yet little is known about what shapes a person's awareness of vulnerability to terrorism. Because evidence indicates that social contacts act as conduits of information and affect perception of risk to natural hazards, it is possible that such contacts also affect terrorism vulnerability awareness. Because social contacts are also known to be systematically segmented by gender and location, we hypothesized that conversations about terrorism vary by gender and place, specifically the home and work place. Drawing on data from 93 interviews with householders in Boston, the study demonstrates that: (1) family networks generated discussions of home preparedness, whereas workplace networks engaged a wider variety of topics; (2) women discussed terrorism more frequently and in greater depth than did men; and (3) women heard more preparedness messages for the home than did men, whereas men undertook preparedness activities external to the home. The findings bridge geography and terrorism studies by theorizing emplaced and subjective human experiences that prompt conversations about terrorism. These conversations, in turn, help urban emergency managers and risk-hazards geographers promote rational dialogue and action vis-à-vis terrorism. Hazards researchers have shown that the more people discuss terrorism, the less they seek extreme and unwarranted responses.     

辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价研究

以2014–2015年海洋调查数据为基础,Arc GIS软件为平台,通过选取致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性相关影响因子,基于灾害理论和层次分析法构建了辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价指标体系、评价模型及评价标准,将致灾因子危险性等级和承灾体脆弱性等级进行叠加,从而实现对研究海域油污染生态风险进行综合评价,并对该海域溢油风险可能导致的环境影响进行了系统分析、诊断和综合评价。结果表明:辽东湾近岸海域风险处于较高风险,应加强对环境敏感区域的保护,并完善环境监测体系。本文同时为重要湿地生态敏感区合理配置溢油应急资源和实施风险决策提供技术支撑,也为目前事故后的危机管理到预防性风险管理的转变提供理论依据。     

象山港海岸带景观生态风险演变研究

海岸带景观是沿海地区社会经济可持续发展的基础,研究人类活动影响下的海岸带景观生态风险演变对海岸带景观规划与景观资源的合理开发具有重要意义。本文基于1990—2010年间3期的Landsat TM/ETM+遥感数据源,结合野外实地调查,研究了象山港海岸带景观生态风险及其变化趋势。结果表明: (1)20 a间,象山港海岸带景观格局发生显著变化,耕地、海域和林地等景观类型面积呈下降趋势,而建设用地、未利用地和养殖用地不断增加;(2)1990年以来,象山港海岸带景观生态风险等级有不断增高趋势,部分低、较低等级生态风险区演变为中等级以及较高等级;(3)从不同等级生态风险区的空间分布上看,1990年以来海岸带景观低和较低等级生态风险区空间分布在沿海地区减少,而中等、较高和高生态风险区在沿海地区不断形成并向陆侧扩张。从演化速率上看,近10 a的较高和高生态风险区面积增加速率较前10 a显著加快。     

知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。     

深水导管架下水扶正过程定量风险分析

运用QRA技术(定量风险评估)对导管架下水过程进行深入分析,提出风险概率评价模型和事故损失综合评估方法。首先辨识潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素,然后量化风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度,最后依据风险量化结果和ALARP(aslow as reasonably practically)原则对需要控制的风险事件给出控制措施。通过定量风险分析,达到及时查找并消除各方面事故隐患的目的。     

Regional Considerations of Coastline Change,Tsunami Damage and Recovery along the Southern Coast of the Bay of Izmit (The Kocaeli (Turkey) Earthquake of 17 August 1999)

Co-seismic phenomena along the south coastline included liquefaction, subsidenceand tsunami. Construction on areas composed of fluvial and alluvial sediments aswell as unconsolidated fill increased the risk by creating potential for amplificationof seismic waves. Cyclic mobility liquefaction was common along the coastline, andlevel-ground liquefaction was observed. Flow liquefaction is held forth as a possibilityin the Deirmendere submarine landslide. Damage to structures was markedly more in areas of unconsolidated sediments. One or more tsunami struck immediately after the event; the uniformity of tsunami impact indicating a wave coming from 310° suggests that submarine faulting was the major source of tsunami. Over 800,000 m² of subsidence resulted from sediment slumping, fault controlled subsidence, and possibly post-liquefaction sediment compaction. After a brief period of post-event abandonment, reclamation and use of coastal areas is well underway. This creates a tension between human desires pushing for quick and inexpensive re-inhabitation of the coastal areas, and the needs for zoning and building codes for risk reduction. In this high-risk area suchcontrary cultural mandates cannot yield ideal results. It is suggested that an alternativemodel of immediate post-event creation of parks and natural areas that would yield benefit is preferable in coastal areas rather than the enforcement approach currently favored.     

中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价

依据自然灾害系统理论,综合考虑致灾因子和承灾体特征,提出台风灾害风险评价方法。在GIS环境下对中国沿海地区台风灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险进行分析评价。评价结果显示:海南省、上海市和广东省、福建省、浙江省的沿海区域台风灾害危险性较高;北京市、天津市、上海市和江苏省、山东省的大部分地区及广东省、福建省、浙江省、河北省的沿海区域承灾体脆弱性较高;海南省、上海市和广东省、福建省、浙江省的沿海区域台风灾害风险较高;而北京市、天津市以及河北省、辽宁省和山东省的大部分区域台风灾害风险较低。     

广东汕头湾表层沉积物重金属含量分布及风险评价

汕头湾地处汕头东部,是珠三角经济区和海峡西岸经济区重要的海上交通枢纽。因受周边城镇、养殖区排污等影响,汕头湾的海洋环境已受污染,生态健康问题不容忽视。沉积物中重金属是反映区域环境质量的重要因子,本研究通过测定汕头湾海域29个表层沉积物样品中重金属Zn、Cu、Cr、Cd、Pb、Hg、As含量,分析了各元素的平面分布特征,并运用主成分分析法(PCA)、地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法对该区域沉积物中重金属的来源及潜在生态风险进行了探讨。结果表明:汕头湾海域表层沉积物的金属含量变化范围为CZn(15. 3～280. 4 mg/kg)、CCu(2. 0～84. 6mg/kg)、CCr(3. 0～130. 8 mg/kg)、CCd(0. 05～1. 07 mg/kg)、CPb(12. 97～39. 31 mg/kg)、CHg(0. 008～0. 171 mg/kg)、CAs(1. 60～16. 50 mg/kg),榕江入海口处为重金属元素的高值区,在拦沙堤的两侧,元素Zn、Cu、Cr、Cd的含量差别较大。相关性分析和主成分分析结果显示,重金属具有相同污染来源,工业废水和城市排污等人类活动输入是主要途径,其分布特征受有机碳、硫化物及细粒级组分等环境因子的影响。地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法的结果表明,在榕江入海口附近区域,重金属表现出强的生态风险,而拦沙堤东侧海域为轻微生态风险,Hg、Cu、Cd是主要污染元素。