ANN在海洋预报中的应用

人工神经网络通过神经元之间的相互作用来完成整个网络的信息处理,具有自学习和自适应等一系列优点,因而用它来进行海洋预报是可行的。针对海洋预报问题,初步建立了基于神经网络的预报分析系统,给出了应用实例。     

场地效应研究的传递台站线性反演法——以芦山地震为例

采用线性反演法研究了地震动的场地效应,并针对线性反演法的局限性,提出了“传递台站”的方法来扩展其应用.通过传递台站,地震事件不再局限于必须被参考台记录到,台站也不再局限于须与参考台站同时获取到地震记录,改进后可大大增加数据样本,使得结果更趋稳定.同时,对于原来难以参与分析的台站,也可得到其场地反应.研究中,还采用了基于遗传算法的非参考台方法,进一步分析了场地反应和验证所提方法的合理性.将所提方法应用于2013年芦山7.0级地震周边区域,分析了这一地区的强震台站的场地反应和地震波衰减因子Q_s值.研究结果显示,当采用一个和二个传递台站进行分析时,所能利用的地震事件和所能求解场地反应的台站数目逐步增加,随着数据样本的增加,分析结果趋于稳定.研究区域的Q_s值拟合结果为Q_s（f）=334.16f^0.73.遗传算法结果表明,线性反演法中所选取的参考台站有其自身的场地反应.当利用遗传算法获得的参考场的场地反应去校正线性反演法的结果时,对于多数场地,两者的结果符合得很好,说明了遗传算法的结果可以合理地认为是场地较为真实的反应.

     

THE INFLUENCE OF SLOPE AND RAIN INTENSITY ON RUNOFF AND INFILTRATION / L'influence de l'inclinaison de terrain et de l'intensité de pluie sur l'écoulement et l'infiltration

Abstract

The design and construction of a special-purpose laboratory catchment and rainfall simulator is described. The equipment consists of a soil catchment area that can be inclined at various angles. Additional instrumentation then measures the flow of water across the surface of, and through, the soil bed. Precipitation is provided by a unit that simulates rainfall at particular rates with uniform distribution.

The equipment was used to examine infiltration, runoff and other hydrological properties of a number of soils under different rainfall intensities and with different catchment slopes. Correlations were obtained for these variables.     

Analysis of implicit HHT‐α integration algorithm for real‐time hybrid simulation

Real‐time hybrid simulation is a viable experiment technique to evaluate the performance of structures equipped with rate‐dependent seismic devices when subject to dynamic loading. The integration algorithm used to solve the equations of motion has to be stable and accurate to achieve a successful real‐time hybrid simulation. The implicit HHT α‐algorithm is a popular integration algorithm for conducting structural dynamic time history analysis because of its desirable properties of unconditional stability for linear elastic structures and controllable numerical damping for high frequencies. The implicit form of the algorithm, however, requires iterations for nonlinear structures, which is undesirable for real‐time hybrid simulation. Consequently, the HHT α‐algorithm has been implemented for real‐time hybrid simulation using a fixed number of substep iterations. The resulting HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations is believed to be unconditionally stable for linear elastic structures, but research on its stability and accuracy for nonlinear structures is quite limited. In this paper, a discrete transfer function approach is utilized to analyze the HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations. The algorithm is shown to be unconditionally stable for linear elastic structures, but only conditionally stable for nonlinear softening or hardening structures. The equivalent damping of the algorithm is shown to be almost the same as that of the original HHT α‐algorithm, while the period elongation varies depending on the structural nonlinearity and the size of the integration time‐step. A modified form of the algorithm is proposed to improve its stability for use in nonlinear structures. The stability of the modified algorithm is demonstrated to be enhanced and have an accuracy that is comparable to that of the existing HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations. Both numerical and real‐time hybrid simulations are conducted to verify the modified algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the modified algorithm for real‐time testing. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强震人员损失回归预测方法

在回顾近年对地震人员损失预测的研究工作的基础上,根据USGS的PAGER系统中地震人员损失回归模型,利用发生在1970-2008年间的128条地震现场调查灾害记录建立了我国东、西部区域适用的地震人员损失预测模型;并利用发生在1980-2007年间的234条地震损失记录建立了地震人员重伤数与人员死亡数的回归关系;最后利用模型对2008年四川汶川地震的人员损失进行评估计算,得到了与实际震害损失相接近的评估结果。     

2003年青海德令哈6.7级地震序列的震源机制解及其构造含义

利用8个流动数字地震台和国家数字地震台站的地震波形记录,测量了2003年4月17日青海德令哈6.7级地震及其主要余震的直达P波、SV波、SH波的初动方向和振幅比,应用Snoke(2003)的测定震源机制解的格点尝试法,测定出德令哈地震序列的48个2.4级以上地震的震源机制解.搜集分析了美国哈佛大学测定的德令哈6.7级主震和2004年二期地震活动中的7个地震的震源机制解.基于余震空间分布特征和对震源机制解特征的分析,讨论了德令哈地震序列的可能断层活动方式和地震的构造含义.结果表明,主震和大部分余震都是沿NWW-SEE走向的逆断层错动,北边的上盘可能沿低角度向北倾的断层面向南仰冲;个别正断层余震可能是震源区挤压变形弧顶区附近发生的局部张性破裂;在二期地震活动中,逆断层和走滑断层都有,走滑断层地震主要发生在震源区东侧.德令哈地震活动是青藏高原东北缘NWW-SEE向延伸的挤压带继续处于隆升活动中的表现,这一继承性新构造运动是德令哈地震序列的可能发震原因.     

Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm

For effective hazard mitigation planning and prompt-but-prudent post-disaster responses, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of infrastructure networks accurately and efficiently. A nonsimulation-based algorithm, termed as a recursive decomposition algorithm (RDA), was recently proposed to identify disjoint cut sets and link sets and to compute the network reliability. This paper introduces a ‘selective’ RDA, which preferentially identifies critical disjoint cut sets and link sets to calculate the probabilities of network disconnection events with a significantly reduced number of identified sets. To this end, the original RDA is improved by replacing the shortest path algorithm with an algorithm that identifies the most reliable path, and by using a graph decomposition scheme based on the probabilities associated with the subgraphs. The critical sets identified by the algorithm are also used to compute conditional probability-based importance measures that quantify the relative importance of network components by their contributions to network disconnection events. This paper also introduces a risk assessment framework for lifeline networks based on the use of the selective RDA, which can consider both interevent and intraevent uncertainties of spatially correlated ground motions. The risk assessment framework and the selective RDA are demonstrated by a hypothetical network example, and the gas and water transmission networks of Shelby County in Tennessee, USA. The examples show that the proposed framework and the selective RDA greatly improve efficiency of risk assessment of complex lifeline networks, which are characterized by a large number of components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

单晶高温合金X射线衍射斑点自动识别算法研究

单晶高温合金展现出优越的抗疲劳性能和高温蠕变性能,广泛应用于航空发动机和燃气轮机的热端部件。但是,其制备过程中会产生晶体取向偏离、杂晶等缺陷。目前国际上已经普遍使用X射线劳埃衍射技术对单晶叶片的晶体缺陷进行无损检测,但是这种检测方法主要依赖人工识别,效率低,结果可重复性差,不适合批量化检测。本文结合工程需要,提出对劳埃衍射斑点进行自动识别的算法,主要包括衍射图样的预处理、轮廓检测、轮廓形态筛选及轮廓符合检测等。该算法能够自动检测出衍射图样上的衍射斑点,并最终给出斑点的位置坐标数据及其误差。根据衍射斑点的位置,通过衍射分析算法,计算出单晶叶片上的晶体取向,并最终对叶片的晶体缺陷给出综合评价。     

三维复杂介质中转换波走时快速计算

复杂介质中转换波走时计算是多波勘探地震学中重要内容之一.本项研究利用惠更斯原理和费玛原理,获得了三维复杂介质中转换波快速计算的改进型最小走时树方法.其中,在保证精度的条件下,为了提高三维转换波走时计算效率,首先对初至波最小走时树基本算法进行了改进.本方法通过将转换波分为上、下行波分别进行射线追踪以实现三维转换波走时的快速计算.模型计算表明,方法的计算速度快,而且稳定性强,对多波地震勘探具有较大的应用价值.     

三维复杂山地多级次群推进迎风混合法多波型走时计算

三维复杂山地条件下的各种地震波型的走时计算技术,可以直接用于复杂山地区域地震波运动学特性的分析、地震数据采集观测系统的设计以及直接基于三维复杂地表的地震数据处理技术的研发.为了在三维复杂地表条件下准确、灵活且稳定地计算各种地震波型的走时,提出一种多级次群推进迎风混合法.该算法利用不等距迎风差分法简洁稳定地处理三维复杂地表及附近的局部走时计算问题,利用计算精度不错的迎风双线性插值法处理绝大部分均匀正方体网格中的局部走时计算问题,利用群推进法模拟三维复杂地表条件下地震波前的扩展问题,利用多级次算法处理各种类型的地震波的走时计算问题.算法分析和计算实例表明：新方法具有很好的计算精度与效率,且能灵活稳定地处理三维复杂地表复杂介质条件下的多波型走时计算问题.