Mechanisms of variability and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

A conceptual model is proposed to explain the observed aperiodicity in the short term climate fluctuations of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This is based on the evidence presented here that the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system sustains a low frequency inter-annual mode and a host of higher frequency intra-seasonal unstable modes. At long wavelengths, the low frequency mode is dominant while at short wavelengths, the high frequency modes are dominant resulting in the co-existence of a long wave low frequency mode with some short wave intra-seasonal modes in the tropical coupled system. It is argued that due to its long wavelength, the low frequency mode would behave like a linear oscillator while the higher frequency short wave modes would be nonlinear. The conceptual model envisages that an interaction between the low frequency linear oscillator and the high frequency nonlinear oscillations results in the observed aperiodicity of the tropical coupled system. This is illustrated by representing the higher frequency intra-seasonal oscillations by a nonlinear low order model which is then coupled to a linear oscillator with a periodicity of four years. The physical mechanism resulting in the aperiodicity in the low frequency oscillations and implications of these results on the predictability of the coupled system are discussed.     

面向MIS系统的程序设计——数据交互屏幕处理系统的实现

本文主要介绍管理信息系统中数据录入功能的程序设计方法,它首次提出并实现了程序与数据在结构上分离在功能上耦合的新思想。该系统对任何数据库系统的一般录入程序无需编写程序,只需通过调用接口程序 DATAMAKE,FOX 即可实现按卡片、表格、课本三种屏幕方式的数据录入功能。系统采用 FOXBASE+2.0完成。     

滇西北地区第三纪的逆冲－推覆构造

滇西北地区始新－渐新世的逆冲断裂系走向南北，向西倾，向东变晚，受新特提斯闭合和碰憧控制；中新世晚期－上新世早期的逆冲断裂系走向东西，朝北倾，与青藏高原的隆升有关，见于高原边缘。它们构成前导叠瓦扇，局部有反冲现象，以推覆距离小、影响深度浅为特征，控制了磨拉石盆地、浅成斑岩和膏盐底辟体的发育，在其西和其北分别发育与之对称的逆冲断裂系，构成科伯构造。     

裸眼井中弹性波传播的非对称模式的数值研究

本文从数值上研究了裸眼井中弹性波传播的非对称模式,给出了合成微地震图和导波（弯曲波）的频散曲线,发现在“硬”地层和“软”地层的井中,导波都是高度频散的,其最大相速度等于地层的横波速度,其截止频率低于对称模式的伪瑞利波的截止频率;在低频（2-3kHz）和长源距（3-4m）的条件下,由非对称的声源（如声偶极子）所产生的微地震图中,初至信号是以横波速度传播的,而以纵波速度传播的信号被抑制。本文的结果对研制横波速度测井仪是有意义的。     

大城市通勤方式与职住失衡的相互关系

随着城市的扩张,人们的就业—居住空间跨度不断扩大。通勤方式的多样化和通勤效率的提高会对就业者的职住状况产生影响。以通勤时间作为通勤成本能从就业者的角度辨析个体的职住失衡状况。本文基于贝叶斯-tobit的统计分析方法,结合北京市7个街道和地区的问卷调查数据,分析了慢行交通、机动车、轨道交通、地面公交等4种通勤方式与职住失衡的相互关系。同时,引入就业可达性和用地混合度作为调节变量,考察其对不同通勤方式与职住失衡之间原有关系的影响。研究发现：①慢行交通的通勤方式与职住失衡程度存在负相关性;②机动车、轨道交通和地面公交的通勤方式与职住失衡程度存在正相关性;③就业可达性和用地混合度会弱化慢行交通、轨道交通、地面公交通勤方式与职住失衡程度的原有关系,即在低就业可达性和用地混合度条件下,慢行交通通勤者的职住失衡度更低,而轨道交通和地面公交通勤者的职住失衡度更高;④就业可达性和用地混合度的差异对机动车通勤与职住失衡之间的关系没有影响。上述结果表明：低就业可达性和用地混合度能够缓解慢行交通通勤者的职住失衡程度;但对于轨道交通和地面公交的通勤者来说,低就业可达性和用地混合度会加剧其职住失衡的程度。此外,机动车通勤者不易受外部客观因素的影响而改变出行方式。     

东亚夏季风指数的分类及物理特征分析

利用1961—2010年NCEP再分析资料,分析了较有代表性的16个东亚夏季风指数,讨论了不同季风指数反映的环流及降水之间的异同,探讨了不同季风指数与东亚夏季风不同空间模态之间的可能关联。结果表明,东亚夏季风指数大致分为两类:1)第一类季风指数存在明显的年代际变化,反映了东亚夏季风强弱的整体一致型变化,与东亚夏季风环流第一模态具有很好的对应关系。高指数年,整个东亚区域夏季风活动整体偏强;贝加尔湖地区为深厚气旋性环流控制,副高位置略偏北;华北、东北地区降水显著偏多,长江流域及其以南降水偏少,降水异常型与我国夏季偶极型季风降水相似,这类指数对我国华北地区降水有较好的指示作用。2)第二类季风指数具有明显的年际变化特征,反映的是东亚夏季风强弱的南北反相变化,与东亚夏季风环流第二模态相对应。高指数年,我国东南地区夏季风偏弱,东北部夏季风偏强;西北太平洋为深厚的气旋性距平环流控制,副高偏北,该分布型与东亚—太平洋(EAP)遥相关十分相似;我国东北、内蒙古地区,华南地区降水增多,长江流域降水显著减少,降水异常型与我国夏季三极型季风降水异常型相似,这类指数对我国长江流域降水有较好的指示作用。     

Reliability analysis of soil nail walls

In India, soil nail walls are being extensively used for supporting vertical excavations below ground level to accommodate construction of one-or two-storied basements. Generally, the depth of excavations for basement construction ranges from 10 m to 15 m. For such large depth of excavation, variability of in-situ soil properties has significant influence on the stability of the soil nail walls. In the present study, using reliability analysis, an attempt is made to study the influence of variability of in-situ soil properties on the stability of soil nail walls. For better understanding, a case of 10 m high soil nail wall constructed to support a vertical cut is considered for the study and its stability is evaluated for various failure modes. Additionally, the influence of correlation among soil parameters on soil nail wall stability is assessed. In-situ soil friction angle and correlation between in-situ soil cohesion and angle of friction are found to influence soil nail wall stability significantly. In general, reliability analysis provided a better insight into the assessment of stability of soil nail wall.     

Laboratory modeling of topographic Rossby normal modes

The physical modeling of topographic Rossby normal modes carried out at the “Coriolis” Rotating Platform (Grenoble), is presented. The basic feature of the bottom topography is a linear slope of 4.3 m×2 m delimited by two lateral walls. Since the studied motions are essentially barotropic, homogeneous water was used. Unsheared currents were generated by a simple movement of a wavemaker located in front of the topographic barrier. The conservation of potential vorticity for the currents flowing onto the channel slope produced Rossby waves: reflections at the lateral boundaries then led to the formation of propagating barotropic Rossby normal modes, whose frequencies and spatial structures were selected by the physical system. The currents were measured through the correlation imaging velocimetry (CIV) method, which allowed an extremely detailed synoptic map of the horizontal velocities in an area (13 m²) including the slope to be obtained every 30 s.A variety of experiments were performed in order to provide a complete process study in which the effect of different channel lengths and rotation periods could be tested. Two different lengths of the linear slope, 4.3 and 3.3 m, and rotation periods ranging from 30 to 50 s were considered. The qualitative analysis of the 2D current patterns, and the good agreement found between the measured eigenperiods and the periods obtained by means of a simple analytical model, show that in all cases the first Rossby normal mode was generated. Moreover, numerical simulations based on the shallow-water equations, for a geometry and paddle movements that match closely the experimental setup, allow to calibrate the analytical model and provide useful information on a discrepancy found between experimental and analytical eigenperiods due to an oscillation of the normal mode trajectory.     

Symposium On Sediment Storage In Rivers And Estuaries

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