用PR资料分析热带气旋卡特里娜降水特征

利用TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 卫星降水雷达 (Precipitation Radar,PR) 资料对2005年8月发生在墨西哥湾的热带气旋卡特里娜 (Katrina) 初生、发展和变性3个阶段的层状云和对流云的近地面降水和降水垂直廓线进行分析。结果表明:在热带气旋的整个生命期,对流性降水个数约是层状云降水个数的四分之一;随着气旋的发展,对流性和层状云降水的平均强度逐渐增强, 在登陆前有所减弱,登陆后对流性降水和总平均降水均增强,层状云降水稍有减弱;大部分降水廓线都随高度升高均呈现先略增大 (到4 km高度)、再减小的趋势,在6~7 km处由于冻结层的存在使得降水达到最小值。     

Katrina and Migration: Evacuation and Return by African Americans and Vietnamese Americans in an Eastern New Orleans Suburb

Hurricane Katrina constitutes the most costly natural as well as technology-induced disaster, in terms of both human suffering and financial loss in the history of the United States. Even years later, it continues to profoundly impact the livelihoods and the mental and physical health of those who have experienced evacuation and return and those who have begun lives anew elsewhere. Our study focuses on these geographical processes associated with the Katrina disaster experiences of African Americans and Vietnamese Americans comprising an overwhelming majority (93.4 percent) of residents in a racially mixed pre-Katrina eastern New Orleans neighborhood. We examine the spatial morphology of routes, volumes, and frequencies of evacuees; their return rates and experiences; and rationales and motivations to return or stay. The conceptual framework is based on the disaster migration, place attachment, and social network literature. Both quantitative and qualitative evidence indicates that the evacuation and return experiences of each minority group substantially differed, especially among African American women, and this was strongly influenced by existing social networks.     

Reconstruction of Hurricane Katrina's wind fields for storm surge and wave hindcasting

As the most costly US natural disaster in history, Hurricane Katrina fostered the IPET forensic study to better understand the event. All available observations from several hundred space-, land-, sea-, and aircraft-based measurement platforms were gathered and processed to a common framework for height, exposure, and averaging time, to produce a series of wind field snapshots at 3 h intervals to depict the wind structure of Katrina when in the Gulf of Mexico. The stepped-frequency microwave radiometer was calibrated against GPS sondes to establish the upper range of the instrument and then used to determine the wind field in the storm's core region in concert with airborne Doppler radar winds adjusted to the surface from near the top of the PBL (500 m). The SFMR data were used to develop a method to estimate surface winds from 3 km level reconnaissance aircraft observations, taking into consideration the observed azimuthal variation of the reduction factor. The “SFMR method” was used to adjust reconnaissance flight-level measurements to the surface in the core region when SFMR and Doppler winds were not available. A variety of coastal and inland mesonet data were employed, including portable towers deployed by Texas Tech University, University of Louisiana at Monroe, and the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program, as well as fixed mesonet stations from Louisiana State Universities Marine Consortium, University of Southern Mississippi, and Agricultural Networks from Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and the Coastal Estuarine Network of Alabama and Mississippi. Also included were land- (WSR-88D VAD and GBVTD, ASOS, Metar, LLWAS, HANDAR), space- (QuikScat, GOES cloud drift winds, WindSat), and marine- (GPS sondes, Buoys, C-MAN, ships) platforms. The wind fields serve as an analysis of record and were used to provide forcing for wave and storm surge models to produce hindcasts of water levels in the vicinity of flood control structures.     

Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis

The Joint-Probability Method (JPM) was adopted by federal agencies for critical post-Katrina determinations of hurricane surge frequencies. In standard JPM implementations, it is necessary to consider a very large number of combinations of storm parameters, and each such combination (or synthetic storm) requires the simulation of wind, waves, and surge. The tools used to model the wave and surge phenomena have improved greatly in recent years, but this improvement and the use of very large high-resolution grids have made the computations both time-consuming and expensive. In order to ease the computational burden, two independent approaches have been developed to reduce the number of storm surge simulations that are required. Both of these so-called JPM-OS (JPM-Optimal Sampling) methods seek to accurately cover the entire storm parameter space through optimum selection of a small number of parameter values so as to minimize the number of required storm simulations. Tests done for the Mississippi coast showed that the accuracy of the two methods is comparable to that of a full JPM analysis, with a reduction of an order of magnitude or more in the computational effort.     

ParBreZo: A parallel,unstructured grid,Godunov-type,shallow-water code for high-resolution flood inundation modeling at the regional scale

Topographic data are increasingly available at high resolutions (<10 m) over large spatial extents to support detailed flood inundation modeling and loss estimation analyses required for flood risk management. This paper describes ParBreZo, the parallel implementation of a two-dimensional, Godunov-type, shallow-water code, to address the computational demand of high-resolution flood modeling at the regional scale (10²–10⁴ km²). A systematic approach to unstructured grid partitioning (domain decomposition) is presented, and the Single Process Multiple Data (SPMD) paradigm of distributed-memory parallelism is implemented so the code can be executed on computer clusters with distributed memory, shared memory, or some combination of the two (now common with multi-core architectures). In a fully-wetted, load-balanced test problem, the code scales very well with a parallel efficiency of close to 100% on up to 512 processes (maximum tested). A weighted grid partitioning is used to partially address the load balancing challenge posed by partially wetted domains germane to flooding applications, where the flood extent varies over time, while the partitioning remains static. An urban dam-break flood test problem shows that weighted partitions achieve a parallel efficiency exceeding 70% using up to 48 processes. This corresponds to a 97% reduction in execution time so results are obtained in a matter of minutes, which is attractive for routine engineering analyses. A hurricane storm surge test problem shows that a 10 m resolution, 12 h inundation forecast for a 40 km length of coastline can be completed in under 2 h using 512 processors. Hence, if coupled to a hurricane forecast system capable of resolving storm surge, inundation forecasts could be made at 10 m resolution with at least a 10 h lead time.     

Satellite microwave detected SST anomalies and hurricane intensification

Sea surface temperature (SST) from the remotely sensed infrared measurements, like the GOES, AVHRR, and MODIS, etc., show missing values of SST over the cloudy regions associated with hurricanes. While satellite microwave measurements, like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager (TMI), can provide SST even under cloudy conditions. Both satellite microwave measurements and buoy observations show SST increase in advance of significant hurricane intensification. Moreover, hurricane intensification may also be related to the location of high SST. Our results indicate pre-existing high SST anomaly (SSTA) located at the right side of the storm track for Hurricane Katrina. Numerical simulations also confirm the important impacts of SSTA location on hurricane intensification. Similar situations are also found for Hurricanes Rita and Wilma. In contrast, if there is no high SSTA at the right location, hurricane may not undergo further intensification. This may explain why not all tropical cyclones associated with warm waters can attain peak intensity (categories 4 and 5) during their life cycle, and partially explains why hurricanes do not reach the maximum potential intensity as calculated only according to the magnitude of SST.     

新奥尔良防洪工程体系破坏原因分析与研究

通过飓风卡特里娜对新奥尔良防洪工程体系破坏情况的回顾并分析其破坏原因,结合其它海堤的建设情况,总结防洪工程体系建设经验教训。认为防洪工程建设应有系统工程的观念,并基于风险分析进行设计;筑堤土料尽量采用抗冲能力强的粘土或采用抗冲性能差的土料时应有相应的防护措施;注意堤防的防护设计,特别是生物措施的利用;强调应重视工程地质参数的正确选取。