基于气温和体感温度的中国南方地区供暖必要性分析

利用1961—2017年中国各省市701个完整时间序列逐日气象资料的台站数据,以《民用建筑供暖通风与空气调节设计规范》(GB50736—2012)中的供暖标准为指标,采用滑动5 d平均方法,从气温和体感温度两种角度,分析了中国南方地区省市供暖的必要性.结果表明:从气温计算的采暖期看,江苏省、安徽省北部、四川省西部、贵州...     

青藏高原地面加热场强度变化及其与太阳活动的关系

利用1958—2006年日喀则和玉树观测的历年各月平均地面(0 cm)温度和气温(百叶箱)资料,采用新量纲重新计算并续补了48年的青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数。结果表明,青藏高原地面加热场强度存在后延1~2个月的显著相关,干季具有较好的持续性。除存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征外,总体表现出春、夏季由弱变强,秋、冬季由强变弱,且具有稳定而显著的准11年和17年周期。持续的太阳黑子数偏少对青藏高原地面加热场强度的增强具有明显的指示性;太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)变长(太阳活动减弱)时,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱。通过初步分析认为,太阳活动是引起青藏高原地面加热场强度变化的重要原因之一。     

Western Pacific Jet Stream Anomalies at 200 hPa in Winter Associated with Oceanic Surface Heating and Transient Eddy Activity

The relationships between the 200-hPa westerly jet stream anomalies over the East Asian coastal water- western Pacific(WPJS),and the oceanic surface heating and synoptic-scale transient eddy(STE)activity anomalies over the North Pacific in wintertime are examined by using ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The analysis demonstrates that the surface heating and the STE anomalies have different patterns, corresponding to the three WPJS anomalous modes,respectively.In the first WPJS anomalous mode,the WPJS main part shows no robust anomaly.The anomalous westerly wind,occurring over the mid-latitude central-eastern Pacific past the date line is associated with the anomalous heating presenting both in the tropical central-eastern Pacific past the date line and the center of the North Pacific basin.Meanwhile,the STE anomaly appears around the region of the anomalous zonal wind.The fluctuation in jet strength shown in the second WPJS mode is strongly related to the heating anomaly in the Kuroshio Current region and the STE anomaly in the jet exit region.The third mode demonstrates a northward/southward shift of the WPJS,which has a statistical connection with a south-north dipolar pattern of the heating anomaly in the western North Pacific separated at 35°N.Meanwhile,the STE spatial displacement is in conjunction with jet shifts in the same direction.The heating anomaly has a close connection with the atmospheric circulation, and thus changes the mid-latitude baroclinicity,leading to the STE anomaly,which then reinforces the WPJS anomaly via internal atmospheric dynamics.     

2003年淮河流域致洪暴雨的环流背景及其与大气热源的关系

利用NCAR/NCEP的逐日再分析资料和降水资料,分析了2003年夏季淮河流域致洪暴雨的环流背景及其与大气热源的关系.结果表明,2002-2003年的El Nino事件是本次暴雨的前期背景;南海地区的视热源和视水汽汇异常可能是副高偏南维持的重要原因之一.与2003年夏季相比较,6月21日-7月22日淮河流域为正的异常视热源和视水汽汇,并且二者的高值中心与该时段雨量中心位置基本一致.孟加拉湾地区的异常加热源在其西北侧强迫出的高层反气旋性环流有利于南亚高压在青藏高原、江南、华南地区维持,从而使得淮河流域位于高压北侧高空西风急流入口区南侧的上升运动区,有利于淮河流域强降水发生和维持,形成该流域洪涝.     

1208号台风“韦森特”异常路径及其对珠三角南部暴雨影响成因分析

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、全省遥测站资料、卫星云图、香港雷达图等资料,分析台风“韦森特”的环流背景场、物理量场特征,找出“韦森特”在南海中北部原地摆动和对珠三角南部强降水过程的物理成因：“韦森特”的原地摆动,与副热带高压、南海中部海温、还有台风内在的云系和风场结构的不对称有关;珠三角地区两侧附近存在弱的水汽通量辐合,在降水中心附近存在明显的上升运动,低层辐合、高层辐散,另外垂直螺旋场与降水中心的第一段降水期具有很好的对应关系.     

A Case Study on a Quasi-Stationary Meiyu Front Bringing About Continuous Rainstorms with Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion

A 4-day persistent rainstorm resulting in serious flooding disasters occurred in the north of Fujian Province under the influences of a quasi-stationary Meiyu front during 5-8 June 2006. With 1°× 1° latitude and longitude NCEP reanalysis data and the ground surface rainfall, using the potential vorticity （PV） analysis and PV inversion method, the evolution of main synoptic systems, and the corresponding PV and PV perturbation （or PV anomalies） and their relationship with heavy rainfall along the Meiyu front are analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanism of the formation, development, and maintenance of the Meiyu front. Furthermore, the PV perturbations related to different physics are separated to investigate their different roles in the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The results show： the formation and persistence of the Meiyu front in a quasi-WE orientation are mainly due to the maintenance of the high-pressure systems in its south/north sides （the West Pacific subtropical high/ the high pressure band extending from the Korean Peninsula to east of North China）. The Meiyu front is closely associated with the PV in the lower troposphere. The location of the positive PV perturbation on the Meiyu front matches well with the main heavy rainfall area along the Meiyu front. The PV inversion reveals that the balanced winds satisfying the nonlinear balanced assumption represent to a large extent the real atmospheric flow and its evolution basically reflects the variation of stream flow associated with the Meiyu front. The unbalanced flow forms the convergence band of the Meiyu front and it mainly comes from the high-pressure system in the north side of the Meiyu front. The positive PV perturbation related to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere is one of the main factors influencing the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The positive vorticity band from the total balanced winds is in accordance with the Meiyu front band and the magnitude of the posit     

Sensitivity of the Simulated Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Cumulus Parameterizations

The sensitivity of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation or MJO (Madden and Julian oscilla tion)to different cumulus parameterizations is studied by using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM)-SAMIL(Spectral Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG).Results show that performance of the model in simulating the MJO alters widely when using two different cumulus parameterization schemes-the moist convective adjustment scheme(MCA)and the Zhang-McFarlane(ZM)scheme.MJO simulated by the MCA scheme was found to be more realistic than that simulated by the ZM scheme.MJO produced by the ZM scheme is too weak and shows little propagation characteristics.Weak moisture convergence at low levels simulated by the ZM scheme is not enough to maintain the structure and the eastward propagation of the oscillation.These two cumulus schemes produced different vertical structures of the heating profile.The heating profile produced by the ZM scheme is nearly uniform with height and the heating is too weak compared to that produced by the MCA,which maybe contributes greatly to the failure of simulating a reasonable MJO.Comparing the simulated MJO by these two schemes indicate that the MJO simulated by the GCM is highly sensitive to cumulus parameterizations implanted in.The diabatic heating profile plays an important role in the performance of the GCM.Three sensitivity experiments with different heating profiles are designed in which modified heating profiles peak respectively in the upper troposphere(UH), middle troposphere(MH),and lower troposphere(LH).Both the LH run and the MH run produce eastward propagating signals on the intraseasonal timescale,while it is interesting that the intraseasonal timescale signals produced by the UH run propagate westward.It indicates that a realistic intraseasonal oscillation is more prone to be excited when the maximum heating concentrates in the middle-low levels,especially in the middle levels,while westward propagating disturbances axe more prone to be produced when the maximum heating appears very high.     

吉林省城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法

由于中国社会经济统计资料中均缺乏历年采暖能源消费数据,在分析气候变化对采暖能耗的影响时,始终存在着一个瓶颈。为此,提出了一种城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法,这种方法把气候变化因素与相关的社会经济因素（如人口、人均居住面积等）结合在一起,较直观地反映了气候变化对城市住宅采暖耗能的影响。以地处高纬的吉林省为例,利用吉林省历年城镇人口、城镇人均居住面积、采暖度日数以及单位面积采暖耗煤量指标,建立了吉林省历年采暖气候耗能距平序列。结果表明：相对于1971-2000年30 a平均气候状况,吉林省2001/2002年的采暖期理论上因气候偏暖可以节约35.98万t标准煤,而2000/2001年采暖期因气候偏冷需要增加15.5万t标准煤。     

影响北京的一例沙尘天气过程的起沙沉降及输送路径分析

本文选取2012年4月27-28日影响北京的一次沙尘天气过程进行分析,发现在本次过程中,沙源地区的沙尘暴主要发生在地面冷锋和500 hPa槽后,在近地层强烈的感热加热与中低层冷平流的共同作用下,形成了不稳定层结及深厚的混合层,最高可达600 hPa,是沙尘天气能够影响下游地区的重要条件。本文还通过分析等熵混合层厚度变化及其平流过程来追踪沙尘天气的输送路径和定位沉降地,发现本次过程有两种传输路径,一种是沿辽宁北部向东而后转向东北方向,主要沿等熵混合层平流向下游移动,之后随着等熵混合层的接地沉降到近地层,该路径影响高度较高;另一种是沿辽宁南部向东南方向移动,混合层平流较清楚,但沉降时与东北路径明显不同,在辽东半岛东部地面辐散气流及下沉运动的作用下发生沉降,并随冷锋后冷高压南侧的东风回流向西输送影响北京地区。另外,由于混合层之上的稳定层明显下压,使沙尘输送高度偏低。运用HYSPLIT模式模拟的前、后向轨迹证实了上述两种输送路径,表明北京的扬沙天气是由东风回流造成的。     

台风模拟中QuikSCAT风场的非对称加强订正及同化应用

针对QuikSCAT 散射计风场资料对台风级别的强风速区还无法准确刻画这个技术问题,引入台风移速、移向、摩擦等客观因素对该风场产品资料进行非对称加强订正;然后利用四维同化技术,并设计了先同化后预报两个阶段的试验方案,对“云娜”台风进行了数值模拟试验。试验结果表明：通过模式约束调整,四维同化技术可以把QuikSCAT 海面风场资料引入到整层模式大气中,并对整层风场和气压场的强度及路径模拟都有很大的改进,而且该资料还提高了预报阶段台风强度的模拟效果,并对登陆点的预报起到了积极作用。