东海台风出现次数以及在我省沿海登陆的分析与预测

根据３７年（１９５３～１９８９年）的有关气象资料分析表明,浙北地区当年３月温度,上年４～６月降水量,秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋（指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风）出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系,并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看,效果令人满意。     

墨吉对虾体长与体重关系的计算及其在生产中的应用

本文研究墨吉对虾(Penaeus merguiensis)体长(L)与体重(W)的关系,经回归分析得其关系式。根据此关系式计算得体长和体重换算表,对指导生产具有现实意义。     

Understanding climate coping as a basis for strategic climate change adaptation – The case of Queenstown-Lake Wanaka,New Zealand

Weather conditions that influence natural resource-based tourist destinations are likely to be affected by climate change, but our understanding of how businesses and destinations manage for present and future conditions is limited. In this study we report on the relationships between weather and tourism activities in the Queenstown-Lake Wanaka region, South Island, New Zealand. Key stakeholder interviews and a workshop form the empirical basis of this paper. Coping range application ideas derived from ecological management literature are used to develop a framework to understand and inform thinking and strategies around how tourism businesses and destinations are currently responding to the weather and perhaps could in future respond to climate change. Results show that within a destination individual businesses have widely varying relationships with the weather, with each type of activity operating within its own coping range to particular environmental gradients, for example temperature. Coping, which can be observed outside the ‘ideal’ range of a particular environmental gradient, requires business adjustments so as to cope with increasingly marginal conditions, up to a Critical Stop Point – the ultimate threshold. The data suggest that increased need for adjustments impacts on business viability, and more planned adaptation measures would be necessary to increase viability under increasingly detrimental climatic conditions. Discussion at a destination level workshop indicates that at and beyond thresholds, keystone industry and destination level strategic adaptation planning is required to ensure the viability of the destination as a whole.     

最近60年来气候变化和人类活动对山地河流入海径流、泥沙的影响——以胶东半岛南部五龙河为例

采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、累积距平法、有序聚类分析法及线性回归等数学方法,以胶东半岛五龙河流域为例,对最近60年来气候变化和人类活动对山地河流入海径流、泥沙的影响进行了研究。结果表明,20世纪50年代以来五龙河入海径流、泥沙量均呈现出显著的阶段性逐级减少趋势。最近60年来,五龙河年径流量和输沙量主要集中在6—9月;主要受年降水量变化影响,年径流量从1980年开始显著减少,并在1966年出现较大波动;受年降水和径流变化影响,年输沙量也分别在1966和1980年呈减少突变;总体来看,年输沙量减少的趋势性要强于径流量。除气候变化影响外,1966年以来流域内大面积坡耕地改梯田和园地、林地建设等人类活动,也是造成河流径流、泥沙减少的重要原因。整体而言,最近60年来,气候变化和人类活动因素对五龙河入海水沙总量减少的贡献率分别为70%—80%和20%—30%。     

气候背景下冰川在博斯腾湖水量平衡中的作用

基于博斯腾湖水量平衡关系,对博斯腾湖水量变化做了分析,认为博斯腾湖近年水位的显著变化与占其入湖水量85%的开都河流量变化有直接关系．冰川作为开都河上游重要的水资源形势,造就了开都河稳定的基流．部分冰川在近20年全球和区域气候变化影响下发生了较大退缩,消退的冰雪直接补给了开都河径流,对开都河连年丰水起了重要作用．随着相对海拔较低的中小冰川的退缩,冰益变薄雪线升高,冰雪储量减少,冰川对气温升高的敏感性开始降低,融水补给量可能随之减少,气候变暖所带来的融水补给效应将减弱,最终影响到博斯腾湖的入流补给．     

天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川物质平衡特征

统计了天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川自1980年以来冰川表面的单点物质平衡,分析了不同季节物质平衡及其冰川变化特征。研究表明,1号冰川厚度较之1959年平均减薄了9 599 mm;1997—2002年为实际观测以来连续的强负物质平衡时段,平均物质平衡为-739.6 mm /a。物质平衡与气温、降水的相关分析显示：1号冰川物质平衡主要取决于夏季平均气温的高低,二者具有较好的反相关关系（相关系数为-0.72）,而与降水的关系相对较差。20世纪80年代末以来,1号冰川退缩速度明显增大,尤以2000—2002年为甚,西支冰川退缩速度为连续的高值(退缩速度分别为6.92 m/a、6.95 m/a和6.25 m/a);东支冰川的退缩速度与高度大于4 200 m的高度带区间的平均物质平衡值有较好的相关关系（相关系数为0.65）,表明了1号冰川进退的动力主要源于冰川积累区的物质平衡大小。     

河西走廊春末夏初降水的空间异常分布及年代际变化

利用河西走廊19个气象代表站建站至2002年5～6月降水量资料, 分析了河西走廊春末夏初干旱的基本气候特征; 在利用EOF和REOF方法进行降水空间异常变化分析和气候分区的基础上,讨论了第一时间系数(PC1)及各区代表站降水量的年代际变化规律. 结果表明, 河西走廊春末夏初降水量在第一空间尺度上为全区一致; 在第二空间尺度上可分为3个气候区; 在第三空间尺度上可分为5个自然气候区. 1980年代为近50 a来降水最多的10 a, 1990年代有所减少, 20世纪末至21世纪初有明显增加. 前期冬季欧亚径向环流加强, 亚洲区极涡面积扩大、强度加强, 冷空气活动频繁, 将有利于次年春末夏初河西走廊降水偏多. 欧洲青藏高原华北西太平洋的波列, 特别是东亚大槽的填塞和青藏高原低值系统频繁活动, 造成了500 hPa高空场上"东高西低"的典型多雨流型.     

Storm surge mitigation through vegetation canopies

The paper of Reid and Whitaker (1976) on the effects of a vegetation canopy on flow of water is re-examined. Their assumptions on the equality of various drag coefficients are replaced by more realistic calculations. A new method for calculating wind stress on water is presented for the case when the vegetation extends above the water surface.For the case of vanishingly small water depth, it is shown that the horizontal stress is approximately constant in the vertical. This results in a diagnostic relationship for the water current as a function of the wind stress and bottom roughness.A new expression for the vertically averaged frictional force per unit mass is derived on the assumption that the friction velocity varies linearly with height. The vertical rate of change of friction velocity depends on the mean water current, the wind stress, the bottom roughness, and the water depth. This work has a possible application in the mitigation of storm surges.     

The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide

The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide.