呼伦湖的近期扩张及其与全球气候变化的关系

通过近２０多年湖泊水量平衡分析发现，湖泊水位变化主要由湖盆内径流补给量的丰枯决定。进一步分析揭示，呼伦湖地区乃至整个东北地区，本世纪以来随气温升高，随水有增加的趋势。降水增加导致入湖径流量，湖水位上升，呼伦湖本世纪以来的扩张与内蒙古东部地区其他内陆湖泊的变化一致，但这在我国乃至整个亚洲内陆干旱或半干旱区是独一无二的，为此成为这一地区气候变化的指示器。     

深圳市土地利用变化机制分析

利用１９８０、１９８８、１９９４年的遥感影像,通过应用最大似然法和概率松弛法对深圳市土地利用进行了测量。在此基础上,运用分类结果求得研究区土地利用变化的转移矩阵,据此分析了深圳上１５年来土地利用变化的空间过程。结果表明：深圳市土地利用纺要表现为原有农田、果园用地显著减少,城镇用地沿海岸和主要公路干线迅速增加。这一土地利用变化的驱动力主要是深圳经济特区的开放政策、城镇人口迅速增长、外资大量涌入和以房     

青藏高原未来30～50年A1B情景下气候变化预估

基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC-AR4)所采用的20个气候模式在未来大气温室气体中等排放情景(A1B)下模拟结果的集合平均以及一个全球气候模式模拟输出驱动下的动力降尺度(downscaling)分析结果,对青藏高原地区未来30～50年的气候变化趋势进行了预估研究.结果表明,从2030-2049年相对于1980-1999年气候平均值的变化来看,青藏高原大部分地区年平均地面气温的升温幅度在1.4～2.2℃之间,高海拔地区的增温一般更为显著,西藏西部的冬季增暖将达到2.4℃以上.降水量的变化相对较小,青藏高原大部分地区和全年多数季节降水可能增加,但未来30～50年青藏高原地区降水率增量通常不超过5%.考虑到未来大气温室气体排放程度、多模式集合预估以及区域尺度气候模拟等多方面均可能存在不确定性,这里给出的青藏高原未来气候变化预估结果应适时检验和修正.     

Application of horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) Fourier spectral ratio for analysis of site effect on rock (NEHRP-class B) sites in Taiwan

The frequency-dependent amplification for rock (NEHRP-class B) sites was studied using earthquake ground-motion database collected in Taiwan during implementation of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. The database used includes several hundred records from earthquakes of M_L 4.0–7.3 occurred between 1993 and 2004. The characteristics of amplification were evaluated using the well-known technique of horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio (H/V) of the S-wave phase [Lermo J, Chavez-Garcia FJ. Site effect evaluation using spectral ratios with only one station. Bull Seism Soc Am 1993;83:1574–94]. The study allows us to analyze peculiarities of rock sites amplification in Northern and Eastern Taiwan. It was suggested to divide the NEHRP-class B site amplification into four types based on frequency of maximum amplification and the shape of amplification function. The applicability of the technique was also checked for a few stiff and soft soil sites (NEHRP-classes D and E).     

Socio-economic drivers of deforestation in Roghani Valley,Hindu-Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan

Deforestation and associated ecological disturbances are the issues of global concern.Researchers have investigated a number of driving forces which accelerate the rate of deforestation at local and regional levels.These include poverty,population growth,market demand and prices,political instability,agricultural expansion and changes in property right and ownership regimes.This paper seeks to explore the impacts of population growth,changing tenure system and other socioeconomic factors on the forest cover of Roghani Valley,located in Hindu Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan.The present study is mainly based on information collected through participatory observation,selfadministered interviews and questionnaire survey.Geographical Information System（GIS） database is also used for mapping and quantification.The results reveal that in the past three to four decades the study area has been subjected to severe deforestation and about half of the forest area has been converted into barren land.Thus,the area under natural forests decreased from 2099 to 1444 hectares in four decades.This large-scale deforestation is attributed to both proximate and under lying causes particularly traditional land tenure system and demographic development.Consequently,forest resources have been degraded and a number of plant species have disappeared from the forests of the study area while several others are in the process of disappearance.     

水域静力触探设备的研制和应用

为详细了解崇明越江通道南港隧道段地层情况 ,设计要求提供长江水域静探资料。简介了我院水域静力触探设备的研制和应用情况     

气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响

通过对莱州湾地区１９６０～１９９３年气候波动水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响分析,楞以看出该地区水资源对气候波动敏感。当降水增加１０％,全区水资源总量可增加２２％;若降水减少１０％,全区水资源总量则减少２３％。在气候处于少雨时期,极端干旱频高远高于多雨时期。同时还分析了未来气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源的可能影响。     

东海台风出现次数以及在我省沿海登陆的分析与预测

根据３７年（１９５３～１９８９年）的有关气象资料分析表明,浙北地区当年３月温度,上年４～６月降水量,秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋（指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风）出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系,并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看,效果令人满意。     

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton.The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.     

三峡水利枢纽主体工程施工控制测量

介绍了采用测边三角网和GPS静态测量实施三峡工程加密控制网的应用情况,阐述了随着光电测距精度的不断提高及水电施工环境的影响,采用测边网加测距三角高程网实施控制网加密是当前行之有效的一种好方法;此外,GPS测量以其限定条件少、操作简单、高自动化的内业处理等优点为施工控制测量开辟了一条新途径。