Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.     

Satellite-based investigation of flood-affected rice cultivation areas in Chao Phraya River Delta,Thailand

The occurrence of catastrophic floods in Thailand in 2011 caused significant damage to rice agriculture. This study investigated flood-affected rice cultivation areas in the Chao Phraya River Delta (CRD) rice bowl, Thailand using time-series moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The data were processed for 2008 (normal flood year) and 2011, comprising four main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct time-series MODIS vegetation indices (VIs), to filter noise from the time-series VIs by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and to mask out non-agricultural areas in respect to water-related cropping areas; (2) flood-affected area classification using the unsupervised linear mixture model (ULMM); (3) rice crop classification using the support vector machines (SVM); and (4) accuracy assessment of flood and rice crop mapping results. The comparisons between the flood mapping results and the ground reference data indicated an overall accuracy of 97.9% and Kappa coefficient of 0.62 achieved for 2008, and 95.7% and 0.77 for 2011, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by close agreement (R² > 0.8) between comparisons of the two datasets at the provincial level. The crop mapping results compared with the ground reference data revealed that the overall accuracies and Kappa coefficients obtained for 2008 were 88.5% and 0.82, and for 2011 were 84.1% and 0.76, respectively. A strong correlation was also found between MODIS-derived rice area and rice area statistics at the provincial level (R² > 0.7). Rice crop maps overlaid on the flood-affected area maps showed that approximately 16.8% of the rice cultivation area was affected by floods in 2011 compared to 4.9% in 2008. A majority of the flood-expanded area was observed for the double-cropped rice (10.5%), probably due to flood-induced effects to the autumn–summer and rainy season crops. Information achieved from this study could be useful for agricultural planners to mitigate possible impacts of floods on rice production.     

Phytoplankton response to short-term temperature and nutrient changes

Meteorological extreme events (heavy rainfall, heat waves) may lead to fast changes in nutrient load and water temperature in temperate lakes. We conducted laboratory experiments with an artificial phytoplankton community to mimic a rapid temperature increase (from 21 °C to 29 °C) at low nutrient levels (‘heat wave scenario’), respectively temperature decrease (from 21 °C to 16 °C) and increased nutrient load (‘heavy rainfall scenario’). We hypothesised that there is a taxon specific nutrient x temperature interaction, leading to significant shifts in the phytoplankton community composition when both variables change. To separate the temperature effect from the nutrient effect, we performed another experimental series at a reduced temperature but without addition of nutrients. As expected, the nutrient effect was overall more important than temperature and significantly affected all five taxa tested that represented different algal classes. However, temperature also played an important role for community composition, because the cryptophyte Cryptomonas sp. and the dinoflagellate Peridinium sp. reached significantly higher biovolumes at lower temperatures. The nutrient x temperature interaction was significant in the green alga Scenedesmus obliquus. These findings suggest that our experimental results cannot be interpreted primarily by species competition for nutrients. Heterotrophic bacteria were present in all experiments. Bacterial biomass was significantly positively related to temperature and nutrients. However, relative to phytoplankton biovolume, bacterial biovolume decreased under nutrient replete conditions. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that short-term environmental change may significantly affect both the phytoplankton community (in terms of species dominance and total biomass) and the ratio between autotrophs and heterotrophs in temperate lakes.     

Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate

The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.     

A Comparison of Sediment Varves (1950–2003 AD) in Two Adjacent Lakes in Northern Sweden

Koltjärnen and Nylandssjön are two closely situated lakes (<2 km apart) in northern Sweden. During the past century, distinct varved sediments have formed in these lakes. Nylandssjön has two varved, deep basins. Since lake and catchment characteristics superficially appear very similar for the two lakes and they are exposed to the same climate, one would expect the sediment varves to be similar. This investigation compares the varves in the two deep basins of Nylandssjön, and in the two lakes. The comparison of basins of Nylandssjön shows that varve thickness, water content and annual accumulation rates of organic matter and nitrogen are correlated for the period (1970–2003). The grey-scale curves are only clearly similar in about 50% of the varves. In the between-lake comparison varve thickness, water content and annual accumulation rates of organic matter and nitrogen are correlated for the period (1950–1996). However, the annual accumulation rates of dry mass, minerogenic matter and biogenic silica differ between the lakes, as well as within-varve successions in grey-scale. A general explanation to the differences is that the prerequisites for varve formation are not totally similar because of differences in catchment size, catchment- to-lake material fluxes, lake productivity and land-use influence. This study illustrates the complex relationships that exist between a lake, its catchment, in-lake productivity and formation of sediment varves. As a consequence, we must not apply a too simplistic view of the potential of varves as past climatic indicators, especially if the lakes are affected by land-use.     

Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s–1960s and the 1990s–2000s

Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the lowest on record. The different responses of cod to the two warm events, in particular the reduced cod production during the recent warm period, are attributed to the effects of intense fishing pressure and possibly related ecosystem changes. The implications of the results of the comparisons on the development of cod scenarios under future climate change are addressed.     

Modelling the sustainability and productivity of pastoral systems in the communal areas of Namaqualand

We investigated the effects of rainfall and the number of animals on changes in vegetation and on the output of milk and meat from the communal areas of Namaqualand. Previously published short- and long-term models link processes that range from the levels of tissue (in, for example, the mammary gland), to the milk yields of individual animals, to the growth and survival of their young and to long-term changes in plant species populations at the ecosystem level. These models have been used to study how different factors and management strategies affect livestock productivity and vegetation composition on a 20,000 ha rangeland in Namaqualand. First, the inter-relations between rainfall, stocking rate and productivity were studied using the short-term model. This model shows that in addition to total rainfall and stocking rate, the timing of rainfall within a year also influences doe live weight and survival to the end of the year. When the long-term model is run, using recorded rainfall, predictions of small stock numbers agree closely with livestock data recorded over the same 30-year period. One thousand replicates of 100-year runs of the long-term model were then used to study the probable impact of different upper limits to stock numbers on animal performance. Off take (sales and slaughterings) are maximal when stock numbers are limited to 2000 adults. Animal numbers increase marginally as the limit is increased above this level, but the variability between years in numbers increases. Secondly, the long-term model was used to study the long-term effects of the stocking rate strategies on rangeland condition. The model predicts that although these effects are variable, when moderately degraded range is stocked with an upper limit at the recommended level it is unable to recover to less degraded states over 100 years. Thirdly, the model was used to examine the effects of reduction in stock numbers and slaughtering of kids in a drought year on goat numbers during the subsequent 5 years. Finally, the model predicts that a 10% reduction in mean annual rainfall will lead to a 35% reduction in animal numbers over 200 years.     

Environmental governance through “Speaking Like an Indigenous State” and respatializing resources: Ethical livelihood concepts in Bolivia as versatility or verisimilitude?

This research addresses recent environmental governance in Bolivia through its relations to indigeneity and respatializations. It introduces and develops the concept of “speaking like an indigenous state” to examine the Bolivian state’s recent use of a pair of indigenous linguistic concepts, Living Well and Earth Mother, representing the identities of citizens and their rights to resources and livelihoods. State relations to indigenous social movements highlight the use of Living Well and Earth Mother concepts through accommodation, resistance, and protaganism. Six active issues of environmental governance are examined: (1) climate change and justice movement; (2) agrarian reform, agrobiodiversity, and food justice; (3) water resources; (4) indigenous territories; (5) Protected Areas; and (6) extractive industries (mining, hydrocarbons). The usages of Living Well and Earth Mother show versatility as they have been mobilized in the respatializing of the politics and social-power dynamics of environmental issues at scales of the state, global and international institutions, and community and local levels. Analysis also reveals deployment of Living Well and Earth Mother that is discursively influential and yet conceptually reduced and unevenly applied, thus suggesting a characteristic of verisimilitude. My analysis determines that respatialization at various levels, including territorial transitions of sub-national regional spaces, are associated with the heightened articulation of environmental governance through indigeneity and “speaking like an indigenous state” amid resource nationalism. Linkages and logics operating within this conjuncture differ from the prevailing interpretation of the Bolivian state’s use of Living Well and Earth Mother as solely an unwitting contradiction or instrumentalist camouflage.     

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

Unravelling the United Kingdom’s climate policy consensus: The power of ideas,discourse and institutions

As climate change policies and governance initiatives struggle to produce the transformational social changes required, the search for stand out case studies continues. Many have pointed to the period between 2005 and 2008 in the United Kingdom as a promising example of national level innovation. With strong cross-party consensus and a first-of-its-kind legislation the UK established itself as a climate policy leader. However, early warning signs suggest that this institutionalised position is far from secure. Through a novel application of discursive institutionalism this article presents a detailed analysis of the role of ideas in unravelling this ambition under the Conservative-Liberal coalition administration (2010–2015). Discursive interactions among policymakers and other political actors were dominated by ideas about governmental responsibility and economic austerity, establishing an atmosphere of climate policy scepticism and restraint. By situating this conspicuous and influential process of bricolage within its institutional context the importance of how policymakers think and communicate about climate change is made apparent. The power of ideas to influence policy is further demonstrated through their cognitive and normative persuasiveness, by imposing over and excluding alternatives and in their institutional positioning. It can be concluded that despite innovative legislation, institution building and strategic coordination of different types of governance actors the ideational foundations of ambitious climate change politics in the UK have been undermined.