香港海域叶绿素-a浓度的时空分布规律

选取香港海域7个水环境控制区在1988－1999年期间每月或每半月定位边疆聚样的37个水质测站，每个测站选用17个水质参数，研究香港海域海岸带水体叶绿素－a浓度及其相关因子的时空分布规律。对37个测站17个参数作聚类分析，结果表明，香港海域东部由半封闭海湾组成的水域控制区，其赤潮发生频率较高；西部水域属于河口环境。多变量分析结果表明，BOD5对叶绿素－a浓度普遍存在显著性影响，氮和光照条件在东部地叶绿素－a浓度的影响比西部海域更显著，而磷以及包括盐度，温度，溶解氧和pH在内的海洋物理化学条件在西部海域有更显著的影响。在整个香港海域，年内平均最高叶绿素－a浓度主要出现在冬末春初和夏末秋初，东部海域的年平均叶绿素－a浓度一般高于西部海域。香港海域的叶绿素－a浓度普遍存在一个8－10年的周期性变化规律。     

Statistical characteristics of chlorophyll-a concentration in Hong Kong′s coastal waters

In this paper seven of the ten Water Control Zones (WCZs) in Hong Kong′s coastal waters with monthly or bi-weekly sampling data of 17 parameters collected at 37 monitoring stations from 1988 to 1999 were selected to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of chlorophyll-a and its influencing factors. Cluster analysis was employed to group the monitoring stations based on the structure of the data set. Multiple step regression was employed to determine the significant influencing factors of chlorophyll-a level. The results suggest that all the monitoring stations could be grouped into two clusters. Cluster I with frequent red tide incidents comprises two WCZs which aresemi-enclosed bays. Cluster II with less red tide occurrence comprises the other five WCZs in an estuarine environment in the west. For both clusters, the organic contents indicator, BOD5, was a common significant influencing factor of the chlorophyll-a level. Nitrogen and light penetration condition related to turbidity, total volatile solids and suspended solids had more influence on the cholophyll-a level in Cluster I than in Cluster II, while phosphorus and oceanographic conditions associated with salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were more important in Cluster II than in Cluster 1. Generally, there was a higher average chlorophyll-a level in winter and autumn in a year.The chlorophyll-a level was much higher in Cluster I than in Cluster II among all seasons. Although the chlorophyll-a concentration had great variations from place to place in Hong Kong′s coastal waters, it seemed to have a common long term fluctuation period of 8-10 years with a high-low-high variation in the period in the whole region, which might be influenced by other factors of global scale.     

Risk analysis of landslides – A case study

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.     

Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California

Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a M_L = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the M_L = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.     

Analysis of geomagnetic field along seismic profile P4 of the International Project POLONAISE'97

This paper presents relative secular variations of the total intensity of the geomagnetic field against a background of results of magnetic anomaly interpretation along seismic profile P4. Profile P4 crosses a Variscan folding zone in the Paleozoic Platform (PLZ), the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ), and the Polish part of the East European Craton (EEC). Secular geomagnetic field variations measured in 1966–2000 along a line adjacent to seismic profile P4 were analysed. The study of secular variations, reduced to the base recordings at the Belsk Magnetic Observatory, showed that the growth of geomagnetic field at the East European Craton was slower than in the Trans-European Suture Zone and the Paleozoic Platform.A 2D crustal magnetic model was interpreted as a result of magnetic modelling, in which seismic, geological and geothermal data were also used. The modelling showed that there were significant differences in the magnetic model for geotectonic units, which had been earlier determined based on deep seismic survey data. It should be noted that a fundamental change of trend of the relative secular variations was observed at the slope of the Precambrian Platform. After analysing the geomagnetic field observed along profile P4, the hypothesis that the contact between Phanerozoic and Precambrian Europe lies in Poland's territory can be proven.     

南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系

通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。     

胶州湾表层海水碳酸盐体系的季节变化

根据2007年8月(夏季),11月(秋季),2008年1月(冬季)和2010年4月(春季)在胶州湾海域测得的p H、溶解无机碳(DIC)、总碱度(Alk),以及通过以上参数计算得到的二氧化碳分压(p CO2)的数据,结合现场的化学、水文、生物等参数,探讨和分析了该海域的二氧化碳各参数的分布特征、季节变化和影响因素。结果表明:胶州湾p H、DIC、Alk和p CO2的年变化范围分别为:7.77—8.30,1949.2—2201.8μmol/kg,2033.9—2382.5μmol/kg和89.9—745.3μatm,均呈现明显的时空变化。温度是影响胶州湾碳酸盐体系的主要影响因素之一,同时陆地径流和降水会降低海水碳酸盐体系中各参数的含量,但是人类活动和生物活动也会在一定程度上增加DIC、Alk和p CO2的含量。     

POM模式在日本南部黑潮路径变异研究中的应用

日本南部黑潮路径变异对北太平洋地区的气候和环境具有显著的影响,对黑潮路径变异的研究具有重要的意义。本文利用POM(Princeton Ocean Model)数值模式模拟了日本南部黑潮的路径变异情况,分析了黑潮大弯曲路径形成的可能机制。研究结果表明,当黑潮处于非大弯曲路径时,相对位势涡度的平均值呈现递减趋势,说明日本南部低位势涡度水在不断积累,这样会使得四国再循环流的强度增强,迫使黑潮保持平直路径,同时,近岸黑潮垂直流速剪切增大,斜压不稳定性的作用也逐渐增大;当黑潮从非大弯曲路径向大弯曲路径过渡时,再循环流强度的减弱会导致黑潮的流速剪切减小。根据海表高度异常场以及海洋上层流场信息发现,近岸黑潮附近的气旋涡会随着再循环流区域反气旋涡的东侧向南运动,最终导致黑潮大弯曲的发生。分析涡流的能量,结果显示,黑潮大弯曲路径的形成与斜压不稳定性密切相关。     

长江中下游六省大气甲烷柱浓度时空分布

甲烷(CH4)是造成气候变暖的主要温室气体之一。为了了解长江中下游水稻种植区CH4浓度的分布情况,本次研究基于温室气体观测卫星(greenhouse gases observing satellite,GOSAT)和大气红外探测仪(atmospheric infrared sounder,AIRS)卫星反演的数据产品,对我国长江中下游六省大气CH4柱浓度的时空分布特征进行了研究。研究结果表明,由GOSAT反演的长江中下游六省大气CH4浓度呈逐年增长趋势,其年均浓度由2011年的1817×10^?9增长至2018年的1875×10^?9,高于东三省、华北平原和全国平均水平。区域平均年增长量为8.2×10^?9 a^?1。各省年际增长幅度略有差异,纬度偏低的江西、湖南和浙江三省大气CH4浓度高且增长量偏大,纬度偏高的湖北、安徽和江苏三省大气CH4浓度略低且增长量偏小。长江中下游六省大气CH4呈现较强的季节变化特征,湖北、湖南、江西和浙江峰值出现在9月,安徽、江苏峰值出现在8月。垂直方向上长江中下游六省CH4浓度随气压降低,浓度逐渐减小,呈现出明显的季节变化特征,近地面层GOSAT反演的最高值出现在夏季,最低值出现在春季;高层最高值出现在秋季,最低值出现在春季。AIRS反演的大气CH4浓度空间分布上北高南低,与GOSAT反演结果不一致,可能由于AIRS主要反映了对流层中层大气状况而GOSAT更多的反映了近地面层大气CH4的变化。其垂直方向上呈现高度越高,浓度越低,不同高度上秋季浓度均最高。