多种遥感数据的综合编图研究

分析了多光谱、卫星测高和成像雷达3种数据的几何定位精度、水深反演有效范围和灵敏度等特性,利用TM、SPOT和SAR数据,研究其水深反演精度和同一性,由此确定了水深综合编图的原则。采用加权平均的数据融合技术,探讨了编制理想综合图件的方法。     

Treating the Risks in Cairns

Cairns is exposed to the well-known natural hazards oftropical cyclone, flood, stormsurge and thunderstorm, but is also exposed to thelesser-known hazards of landslip, earthquake and dam break flooding. Recommendations fortreating the risks associated with these hazards have been made that will involve amulti-disciplinary approach to treatment strategies, require the cooperation of allthree levels of government, involve public utility authorities and private enterprise andinvolve the community as a whole.This paper summarises the suggested mitigation treatmentoptions, presented to the Cairns City Council and identified in the LocalGovernment Disaster Mitigation Project conducted in Cairns in 1999/2000 by theQueensland Department of Emergency Services.     

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

‘Bringing government to the people’: women, local governance and community participation in South Africa

This paper considers the ongoing political transformations in South Africa in the context of debates about good governance and participatory democracy. It first appraises the current transformations of local government in South Africa, focusing specifically on relationships between gender equality and citizenship on the one hand, and local government policy, legislation, and community participation on the other, and then explores meanings of participation and how they inform approaches towards local socio-economic development. The findings of primary research conducted with civil society organisations and black women in communities in the Cape Town metropolitan area are explored through three interrelated themes. First, the model of structured participation that is central to South Africa’s democratic transformation is assessed from the perspective of black women. Second, cultures of alienation, both within local governance structures and amongst black women and the extent to which recent restructuring is combating or contributing to these are explored. Third, how participation policies are dealing with conflict within and between target groups are analysed, whether stakeholder group politics obliterate important differences in interests and whether alternative structures might be more effective in terms of women’s participation and empowerment. Finally, the findings are interpreted in relation to theoretical concepts of good governance and participatory democracy, and the potential and problems of realising South Africa’s transformation process toward developmental local government are assessed.     

Architecture of fault zones determined from outcrop, cores, 3-D seismic tomography and geostatistical modeling: example from the Albalá Granitic Pluton, SW Iberian Variscan Massif

The 3-D seismic tomographic data are used together with field, core and well log structural information to determine the detailed 3-D architecture of fault zones in a granitic massif of volume 500×575×168 m at Mina Ratones area in the Albalá Granitic Pluton. To facilitate the integration of the different data, geostatistical simulation algorithms are applied to interpolate the relatively sparse structural (hard) control data conditioned to abundant but indirect 3-D (soft) seismic tomographic data. To effectively integrate geologic and tomographic data, 3-D migration of the velocity model from the time domain into the depth domain was essential. The resulting 3-D model constitutes an image of the fault zone architecture within the granitic massif that honours hard and soft data and provides an evaluation of the spatial variability of structural heterogeneities based on the computation of 3-D experimental variograms of Fracture Index (fault intensity) data. This probabilistic quantitative 3-D model of spatially heterogeneous fault zones is suitable for subsequent fluid flow simulations. The modeled image of the 3-D fault distribution is consistent with the fault architecture in the Mina Ratones area, which basically consists of two families of subvertical structures with NNE–SSW and ENE–WSW trends that displaces the surfaces of low-angle faults (North Fault) and follows their seismically detected staircase geometry. These brittle structures cut two subvertical dykes (27 and 27′ Dykes) with a NNE–SSW to N–S trend. The faults present high FI (FI>12) adjacent bands of irregular geometry in detail that intersect in space delimiting rhombohedral blocks of relatively less fractured granite (FI<6). Both structural domains likely correspond with the protolith and the damaged zone/fault core in the widely accepted model for fault zone architecture. Therefore, the construction of 3-D grids of the FI in granitic areas affected by brittle tectonics permits the quantitative structural characterization of the rock massif.     

广西2002年度气候特点及其影响评价

2002年度(2001年12月～2002年11月),广西各地平均气温17.1～23.5℃,大部地区偏高0.3～1.2℃。年度降水量1035.0～2897.1mm,桂东大部偏多1～4成,桂西大部正常。日照时数1019～2323h,大部地区偏少10～412h。2002年度主要气候事件以春旱、暴雨洪涝、热带气旋、寒露风较为突出,年度内气候条件对各行业的影响有利有弊。     

中国西部退耕还林(草)和沙漠化土地绿化的区域性气候效应

中国正在实施的西部大开发必将导致较大规模的土地利用和地表覆盖(LULC)变化,其中最重要的两类LULC变化是退耕还林(草)和沙漠化土地绿化工程。利用最新的全球地表特征资料数据库(GLCCD)识别以上两项生态建设工程的实施规模与范围,并以此更新了目前比较流行的区域气候模式的下边界条件,利用修正了的区域气候模式研究上述大规模LULC变化可能对中国区域性气候造成的影响。使用的卫星资源数据库是由美国地质测绘局(USGS)和Nebraska-Lincoln大学牵头,根据NOAA卫星的AVHRR资料、USGS掌握的高分辨率数字化地图,以及生态区划和植被分布等资料组建的。     

1906年玛纳斯7.7级地震孕震过程的数值模拟研究

根据玛纳斯 7 7级强震区的构造格架 ,利用三维有限元方法对 190 6年玛纳斯 7 7级地震的强震区进行了应力模拟研究。结果表明 ,玛纳斯地震的震源区不仅位于应力集中的部位 ,而且该部位集中的应力还会随着时间的增长而增大。数值模拟较好地再现了 190 6年玛纳斯 7 7级地震震源区的应力积累过程     

地形对大地电磁测深(MTS)资料的影响

地形影响是山区ＭＴＳ工作的主要问题之一，对此做了理论分析并用均匀半空间表面二维地形模型进行了数值模拟。结果表明，地形影响不仅与ＭＴＳ资料的种类、极化模式、场源电磁波周期及测点位置有关，而且还依赖于不同的地形形态和尺度。此外，还根据悬崖模型计算，给出了关于地形影响范围的估     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.