地下水脆弱性概念的发展过程与评价现状及研究前景

地下水脆弱性概念的发展过程是一个由简单到复杂,由单纯考虑内因到综合考虑内外因,由分以趋同的不断丰富、完善与发展的过程。评价方法由应用图件定性描述发展到应用模型定量表达。本文指出了目前地下水脆弱性评价中存在的若干问题,并指出应用灰色系统理论、模糊数学理论、ＡＨＰ与ＧＩＳ技术进行地下水脆弱性评价将是地下水脆弱性研究的一个主要的发展方向。     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Related Probabilities of Fatalities from Natural Perils in Australia

The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers.The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons.     

Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada

The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.     

GIS and Volcanic Risk Management

Volcanic catastrophes constitute a majorproblem in many developing and developed countries. Inrecent years population growth and the expansion ofsettlements and basic supply lines (e.g., water, gas,etc.) have greatly increased the impact of volcanicdisasters. Correct land-use planning is fundamental inminimising both loss of life and damage to property.In this contribution Geographical Information Systems(GIS), linked with remote sensing technology andtelecommunications/warning systems, have emerged asone of the most promising tools to support thedecision-making process. Some GIS are presented fortwo volcanic areas in Italy, Mt. Etna and Vesuvius.GIS role in risk management is then discussed, keepingin mind the different volcanic scenarios of effusiveand explosive phenomena. Mt. Etna system covers alarge area (more than 1,000 km²) potentiallyaffected by effusive phenomena (lava flows) whichcause damage to both houses and properties in general.No risk to life is expected. The time-scales of lavaflows allow, at least in principle, modification ofthe lava path by the building of artificial barriers.Vesuvius shows typically an explosive behaviour. Inthe case of a medium size explosive eruption, 600,000people would potentially have to be evacuated from anarea of about 200 km² around the Volcano, sincethey are exposed to ruinous, very fast phenomena likepyroclastic surges and flows, lahars, ash fallout,etc. Ash fallout and floods/lahars are also expectedin distal areas, between Vesuvius and Avellino,downwind of the volcano. GIS include digital elevationmodels, satellite images, volcanic hazard maps andvector data on natural and artificial features (energysupply lines, strategic buildings, roads, railways,etc.). The nature and the level of detail in the twodata bases are different, on the basis of thedifferent expected volcanic phenomena. The GIS havebeen planned: (a) for volcanic risk mitigation (hazard,value, vulnerability and risk map assessing), (b) toprovide suitable tools during an impending crisis, (c)to provide a basis for emergency plans.     

贵州典型喀斯特县域生态环境脆弱度等级划分

以贵州省46个典型喀斯特县域作为研究对象,共选取5大类19项指标,通过层次分析法计算出各指标的相对权重,采用模糊综合评判方法对各县生态环境脆弱度进行计算和定量评价,并根据最大隶属原则把46个典型喀斯特县份分别划分于极度脆弱、强度脆弱、中度脆弱和轻度脆弱四种不同脆弱等级。计算结果表明,贵州喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱形势十分严重,在46个典型的喀斯特县份中,有31个县属于强度脆弱或极强脆弱,11个县属于中等脆弱,属于轻度脆弱的只有4个县。      

青藏铁路西大滩-拉萨地段活动构造、地质灾害及其工程评价

本文是作者在1975~1977年间青藏铁路(格尔木-那曲地段)沿线水文地质、工程地质调查所获资料基础上,参考了后期他人在该区段研究的成果撰写而成。文中主要涉及活动构造、地质灾害及工程评价三大部分,其中特别是活动构造部分,除了所表现的一般标志外,重点探讨了活动构造与现代地震和古地震的关系、活动构造带与地震构造带的对应关系、活动断裂的活动年龄及其活动速率、活动断裂与地震地表破裂以及主要地震构造带中的地震活动周期等诸多方面的问题,并结合铁路沿线地质灾害类型,在综合分析基础上,首次较系统地将铁路沿线工程地质评价划分为:①良好的;②一般的;③不良好的和④极不良好的等四大类型工程地质地段,从而为现今青藏铁路建设进一步详查和评价提供了重要依据。      

风蚀作用下的土壤碳库变化及在中国的初步估算

土壤有机碳库储量巨大且在表层富集 ,而风力侵蚀具有巨大的卷挟起沙、搬移输运和空间再分配能力 ,对土壤有机碳库的演变具有重要影响。在风力侵蚀作用下 ,风蚀发生地、风蚀土壤输运途中以及风蚀土壤沉降地的土壤有机碳库有着不同的变化过程。基于质量平衡原理 ,可以建立土壤有机碳流失及各路径碳输移量估算的模型。依据第二次全国遥感侵蚀调查以及第二次全国土壤普查数据 ,在GIS支持下 ,分析了中国土壤有机碳库以及风力侵蚀的空间格局 ,并计算得到风力侵蚀作用下中国土壤有机碳库储量变化以及各路径碳输移量。研究表明 ,我国因风力侵蚀造成的土壤有机碳流失量约为 5 9 76× 10 6 tC/yr,风蚀所致CO2 排放约为 2 9 88× 10 6 tC/yr;风蚀所致的土壤有机碳流失主要发生在中国西北部的干旱半干旱的农区和牧区     

基于知识的旱地生理趋势的评价模型

The present study aims the evaluation of bio-physical characteristics towards soil-water-vegetation stress and a rule is envisaged to assess the degree of temporal changes. The digital rule for assessment is initialized through the index of land Instability (ILI) where the variance indicates the temporal instability of the pixel I.e., smallest land unit. It is assumed that the biophysical characteristic of land is in command of land-dynamics where there is no change in Land Use/Land Cover (LU&LC). The intensity map on tendency of albedo (IALB) assesses the intensity of soil erosion and water stress whereas intensity map on tendency of NDVI (INDVI) appraises the stress on vegetation. The carry-out study covers a part of semiarid Western India. Primarily remote sensing technique, which carries the digital information of land temporally and spatially, is adopted in this paper. A part of the study area is represented using two sets of IRS 1A/lB LISS-I data of March with a decadal time domain (1989-1998) as a test area. It is assumed that the soil-water-vegetation stress is maximum during summer(March-April-May) in any tropical belt and decadal data will stretch the possibility of climate as well as man-made activity over the land.     

砂土地震液化预测的人工神经网络模型

在简要分析BP算法的基础上,应用BP网络的理论与方法,选取烈度、震中距、平均粒径、不均匀系数、地下水埋深、砂层埋深、标贯击数、剪应力比等8个实测指标,建立了砂土液化预测的神经网络模型。通过实例计算与模型评价、验证了该模型的科学性、高效性并较规范法、Seed简化法等传统方法具有更高的预测精度,说明人工神经网络是解决非线性问题的有效方法之一。     

以控制地面沉降为约束的地下水资源评价——以上海地区为例

以上海市区第V承压含水层(埋深约350m )以上的整个第四系松散沉积层为研究体,将上海地下水系统作为一个完整且不可分割的系统来研究。由于开采地下水资源引起地下水系统内部物质能量变化,因而产生一系列的环境地质问题(如地面沉降、地下水位下降、资源开采条件恶化等)。根据研究区地下水系统特征和已有的研究程度,在技术方法和途径上,着重研究上海地区第四系含水层结构、水文地质工程地质条件,建立水文地质工程地质概念模型; 在此基础上建立以地下水资源开采量最大、水位降幅及地面沉降较小、社会经济效益较好为目标的地下水拟三维渗流一维地面沉降的评价与管理模型,并为我国大中城市(特别是在诸如开采地下水引起的地面沉降问题的地区)的地下水资源评价与管理提供可借鉴的经验和方法。