Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

Hybridization of the probability perturbation method with gradient information

Geostatistically based history-matching methods make it possible to devise history-matching strategies that will honor geologic knowledge about the reservoir. However, the performance of these methods is known to be impeded by slow convergence rates resulting from the stochastic nature of the algorithm. It is the purpose of this paper to introduce a method that integrates qualitative gradient information into the probability perturbation method to improve convergence. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated on a synthetic history-matching example. The results indicate that inclusion of qualitative gradient information improves the performance of the probability perturbation method.     

基于BGM的不同繁殖长度对集合预报的影响

利用T63L9全球谱模式和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 对BGM方法中增长模的繁殖长度对集合预报效果的影响进行研究。结果表明:与控制预报相比, 不同繁殖长度的集合预报都能使预报效果得到一定程度的改进, 特别是第4天预报以后, 改进程度随预报时效而稳步提高。三组不同繁殖长度的集合预报对控制预报的改进存在差别, 分析结果表明:繁殖长度为2 d的集合预报明显效果最差, 而繁殖3 d和4 d的集合预报差别并不明显。对集合Talagrand分布以及离散度的初步分析表明, 繁殖长度取为3 d似乎最为合理。     

夏季东亚西风急流扰动异常与副热带高压关系研究

利用1979—2003年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料, 探讨夏季 (6—8月) 200 hPa东亚西风急流扰动异常与南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的关系。研究指出:夏季200 hPa东亚西风急流扰动动能加强 (减弱), 东亚西风急流位置偏南 (偏北)、强度偏强 (偏弱); 东亚西风急流扰动动能强弱不仅与北半球西风急流强弱和沿急流的定常扰动有关, 而且还与东亚地区高、中、低纬南北向的扰动波列有关, 亚洲地区是北半球中纬度环球带状波列异常最大的区域。夏季200 hPa东亚西风急流扰动动能加强 (减弱), 南亚高压的特征为位置偏东 (偏西)、强度加强 (减弱); 西太平洋副热带高压的特征为位置偏南 (偏北)。东亚环流特别是500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压对东亚西风带扰动异常的响应由高空东亚西风急流南侧的散度场及其对流层中下层热带和副热带地区的垂直速度距平场变化完成。     

A method to improve the alignment performance for GPS-IMU System

Zero velocity and zero east component of rotation rate relative to local geographic frame have been traditionally applied as measurements for fine alignment of a GPS-IMU system. The performance of the fine alignment, however, will be affected by several types of inertial sensor errors, which could cause part of the Kalman filter states to be unobservable. To overcome this problem, a new method that utilizes the total outputs of the gyro triad and the accelerometer triad as part of the measurements has been proposed by the authors. The initial results have confirmed the effectiveness of the method. In this paper, the observability for both traditional and new alignment methods will be first reviewed. The results from computer simulations will then be presented to compare the traditional and the new alignment methods for the purpose of evaluating the performance of the proposed new method. Data acquired from real inertial sensors will also be applied to assess the traditional and new alignment methods by analyzing their innovation sequences from the Klaman filter. Based on a paper presented at the 18th International Technical Meeting of the Satellite Division of the Institute of Navigation, Long Beach, California, September 2005.     

Mass-Weighted Symplectic Forms for the N-Body Problem

Mass-weighted symplectic forms provide a unified framework for the treatment of both finite and vanishingly small masses in the N-body problem. These forms are introduced, compared to previous approaches, and their properties are discussed. Applications to symplectic mappings, the definition of action-angle variables for the Kepler problem, and Hamiltonian perturbation theory are outlined This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quasi-isotropic approximation of ray theory for anisotropic media

Wave propagation in weakly anisotropic inhomogeneous media is studied by the quasi-isotropic approximation of ray theory. The approach is based on the ray-tracing and dynamic ray-tracing differential equations for an isotropic background medium. In addition, it requires the integration of a system of two complex coupled differential equations along the isotropic ray.
The interference of the qS waves is described by traveltime and polarization corrections of interacting isotropic S waves. For qP waves the approach leads to a correction of the traveltime of the P wave in the isotropic background medium.
Seismograms and particle-motion diagrams obtained from numerical computations are presented for models with different strengths of anisotropy.
The equivalence of the quasi-isotropic approximation and the quasi-shear-wave coupling theory is demonstrated. The quasi-isotropic approximation allows for a consideration of the limit from weak anisotropy to isotropy, especially in the case of qS waves, where the usual ray theory for anisotropic media fails.     

利用空间测地技术结果估计地球平均下地幔粘性(英)

基于IEC－4G冰期后地壳反弹模型,和地球上Laurentia,Fennoscandia,Antarctica,andGreenland四大冰盖最近21000年以来的冰融参数,计算了对地球最大主转动惯量的影响△I33,并进而由现代空间测地技术观测资料分析得到的地球自转非潮汐加速项为约束,估计了地球平均下地幔（670km以下）粘性vLM为（0．9～2．5）·1022Pas,这个结果表明了vLM应具有1022Pas量级．