Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Shallow seismicity, stress distribution and crustal deformation pattern in the Andaman-West Sunda arc and Andaman Sea, northeastern Indian Ocean

Shallow seismicity and available source mechanisms in the Andaman–westSunda arc and Andaman sea region suggest distinct variation in stressdistribution pattern both along and across the arc in the overriding plate.Seismotectonic regionalisation indicates that the region could be dividedinto eight broad seismogenic sources of relatively homogeneousdeformation. Crustal deformation rates have been determined for each oneof these sources based on the summation of moment tensors. The analysisshowed that the entire fore arc region is dominated by compressive stresseswith compression in a mean direction of N23^°, and the rates ofseismic deformation velocities in this belt decrease northward from 5.2± 0.65 mm/yr near Nias island off Sumatra and 1.12 ±0.13 mm/yr near Great Nicobar islands to as much as 0.4 ±0.04 mm/yr north of 8^°N along Andaman–Nicobar islandsregion. The deformation velocities indicate, extension of 0.83 ±0.05 mm/yr along N343^° and compression of 0.19 ±0.01 mm/yr along N73^° in the Andaman back arc spreadingregion, extension of 0.18 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N125^° andcompression of 0.16 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N35^° in NicobarDeep and west Andaman fault zone, compression of 0.84 ±0.12 mm/yr N341^° and extension of 0.77 ± 0.11 mm/yralong N72^° within the transverse tectonic zone in the Andamantrench, N-S compression of 3.19 ± 0.29 mm/yr and an E-Wextension of 1.24 ± 0.11 mm/yr in the Semangko fault zone ofnorth Sumatra. The vertical deformation suggests crustal thinning in theAndaman sea and crustal thickening in the fore arc and Semangko faultzones. The apparent stresses calculated for all major events range between0.1–10 bars and the values increase with increasing seismic moment.However, the apparent stress estimates neither indicate any significantvariation with faulting type nor display any variation across the arc, incontrast to the general observation that the fore arc thrust events showhigher stress levels in the shallow subduction zones. It is inferred that theoblique plate convergence, partial subduction of 90^°E Ridge innorth below the Andaman trench and the active back arc spreading are themain contributing factors for the observed stress field within the overridingplate in this region.     

On the oceanic impact of a data-assimilation method in a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model

 Based on the Kalman filter theory, a new data-assimilation method has been used to improve the 3-D oceanic temperature field of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled general circulation model. This method is applied to assimilate surface and subsurface temperature of in situ measurements from the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic project (PIRATA). The assimilation of the PIRATA data produces an improved representation of the thermal state of the ocean and allows a better estimation of other oceanographic quantities, like meridional heat fluxes and zonal currents. The present paper focuses on the tropical Atlantic and, in particular, it contains new reconstructed temperature profiles. One-month forecast experiments during 1999 were performed and the impact of the assimilation is discussed. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 8 March 2002     

Changes in the mode of Southern Ocean circulation over the last glacial cycle revealed by foraminiferal stable isotopic variability

Benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopic records from Southern Ocean sediment cores show that during the last glacial period, the South Atlantic sector of the deep Southern Ocean filled to roughly 2500 m with water uniformly low in δ¹³C, resulting in the appearance of a strong mid-depth nutricline similar to those observed in glacial northern oceans. Concomitantly, deep water isotopic gradients developed between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Southern Ocean; the δ¹³C of benthic foraminifera in Pacific sediments remained significantly higher than those in the Atlantic during the glacial episode. These two observations help to define the extent of what has become known as the ‘Southern Ocean low δ¹³C problem’. One explanation for this glacial distribution of δ¹³C calls upon surface productivity overprints or changes in the microhabitat of benthic foraminifera to lower glacial age δ¹³C values. We show here, however, that glacial-interglacial δ¹³C shifts are similarly large everywhere in the deep South Atlantic, regardless of productivity regime or sedimentary environment. Furthermore, the degree of isotopic decoupling between the Atlantic and Pacific basins is proportional to the magnitude of δ¹³C change in the Atlantic on all time scales. Thus, we conclude that the profoundly altered distribution of δ¹³C in the glacial Southern Ocean is most likely the result of deep ocean circulation changes. While the characteristics of the Southern Ocean δ¹³C records clearly point to reduced North Atlantic Deep Water input during glacial periods, the basinal differences suggest that the mode of Southern Ocean deep water formation must have been altered as well.     

过去5000年西太平洋副热带高压活动的泥炭纤维素碳同位素记录

文章以金川和红原两组泥炭纤维素Δδ¹³C时间序列值的反向变化来指示西太平洋副热带高压活动变化.结果表明,在过去5000年中,西太平洋副热带高压的活动可分为4个阶段,即西太平洋副热带高压位置在2800～2200B.C.期间持续偏北,2200～600B.C.期间持续偏南,600B.C.～1200A.D.期间在北进与南移之间频繁波动,以及1200～1900A.D.期间再次持续偏北,它们导致降雨量在中国大陆上不同的分布.从约1900A.D.起西太平洋副热带高压的活动似乎又开始一个新的偏南阶段,值得进一步加强研究.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…     

西藏南部郎杰学群碎屑物质来源的古水流证据

新近对西藏山南琼果和贡嘎地区(特提斯喜马拉雅北亚带)弱变质的上三叠统深海—半深海沉积地层——郎杰学群地质填图调查,在出露槽模沉积构造的37个古水流点获得了43组数据。赤平投影数据恢复后发现,这一地区主力古水流有南东140°～160°和南西190°～210°两个方向。这一分析结果为郎杰学群沉积物来自北边(未知块体)而非印度次大陆的观点提供了有力证据。     

Impact of precipitation seasonality changes on isotopic signals in polar ice cores: a multi-model analysis

For Central Greenland, water isotope analysis indicates a temperature difference of about 10°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, borehole thermometry and gas diffusion thermometry indicate that LGM surface temperatures were about 20°C colder than today. Two general circulation model studies have shown that changes in the seasonal precipitation timing in Central Greenland might have caused a warm bias in the LGM water isotope proxy temperatures, and that this bias could explain the difference in the estimated paleotemperatures. Here we present an analysis of a number of atmospheric general circulation model simulations mostly done within the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. The models suggest that the seasonal cycle of precipitation and surface mass balance over Central Greenland at the LGM might have been very different from today. This supports the idea that the accuracy of the water isotope thermometry at the LGM in Greenland might be compromised as a result of a modified surface mass balance seasonality. However, the models disagree on the amplitude and sign of the bias. For Central East Antarctica, a strong seasonality effect on the LGM isotopic signal is not simulated by any of the analyzed models. For the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP) the models suggest relatively weak isotope paleothermometry biases linked to changes in the surface mass balance seasonality over both ice sheets.     

Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during BOBMEX-99 using high-resolution analysis

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.     

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.