莱州湾南岸海水入侵现状评价

根据莱州湾南岸海水入侵区地下水水质特点,将海水入侵等级划分为4级。同时,选取Cl^-,矿化度,SO4^2-,rHCO3^-/rCl^-,K^-等指标作为评价因子,并分别确定了这5项指标的等级划分范围。然后,运用模糊数学的综合评判方法,对研究区内海水入侵现状做出评价。     

落物撞击作用下海底管道风险评估

海洋平台吊机起吊货物频繁,落物事故偶有发生,对平台附近的海底管道造成危害。在DNV推荐方法的基础上,改进了碰撞概率的计算方法。运用概率统计的方法以及失效概率理论编制Matlab程序,充分考虑各因素不确定性基础上,对落物撞击作用下海底管道进行了风险评估及敏感性分析。为减少落物对海底管线的损伤,及如何配置合理的防护措施提供了科学依据。     

数据库与实测数据融合实现对深海跃层的快速估算

海洋跃层的快速估计对于环境的态势评估具有重要意义,跃层估计的精度和估计所用时间是两个主要评估要素.基于实测的温度、密度和LEVITUS数据库中的温度、密度进行融合来对跃层进行快速估计,可通过实测数据对数据库的数据进行补充和修正,然后利用修正后的数据对跃层进行快速评估.结果表明,该方法可以大幅度地缩短跃层估计的时间和提高...     

Damage assessment for submarine photoelectric composite cable under anchor impact

The impact of dropped anchor on submarine photoelectric composite cables may possibly cause electrical faults, i.e. electricity and optical signal transmission failure. In order to study the impact capacity and structural impact failure mechanism, a test setup is designed originally to examine the structural and functional integrity. A detailed finite element model (FEM) is created, considering material nonlinearity and component interaction. A parametric analysis has been performed to predict the deformation of components and impact forces, under different impact velocities and collision directions. Relationships between the armor layer indentation rate and that of internal power and optical units are achieved. The impact deformation of internal entities can be evaluated intuitively by armor layer indentation. The proposed experimental and numerical methods are well correlated, suitable to assess the impact capacity of subsea power cables and assist the protection design of subsea power cables in engineering.     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.     

3S技术在神农架滑雪场生态环境影响评价中的应用

神农架滑雪场位于国家级自然保护区的边缘地带。运用景观生态学原理和方法,采用3S技术,对滑雪场景观生态体系的结构和功能状况进行评价,通过景观多样性指数、景观聚集度指数等指标量化计算及比较分析,预测了项目建成后对所在区域生态完整性的影响程度及将造成的敏感生态问题。结果表明,评价区自然系统的生物量将减少430.26 t,平均净生产力降低为881.55 g/m2.a,项目建设不会改变林地的模地地位,其对生态环境质量仍有较强的调控能力。3S技术结合景观生态学方法将生态环境影响评价由定性评价转向定量预测,为建设项目生态影响评价研究作了有益的探索。     

Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada

The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.     

岷江上游土地资源适宜性评价研究

岷江上游地区的可持续发展直接影响着四川省社会经济的发展，以岷江上游土地资源适宜性评价为研究对象，利用地理信息系统（GIS）技术，建立了该地区的土地资源基础信息库；利用面向对象编程技术，应用模糊集合综合评价法及对各土地适宜性监介指标确定和适宜性等级的划分进行了岷江上游土地资源适宜性评价，并提出了土地利用规划及今后改造利用的方向。     

小窑采空区地质灾害综合评价研究

采用物探和钻探相结合的综合勘察方法，获取地质环境的破坏现状和采空区特征.按相关规范要求，预测小窑采空区的影响范围，剖析采空区残留空洞的稳定性，评价采空区的活化潜在威胁，分析采空引起的覆岩三带发育特征，剖析采空区引起的地表移动特征，获取相应地表变形特征参数.