以减少地震死亡人数为目标的地震统计决策

在地震统计预测研究的基础上,本文提出一种以减少地震死亡人数为目标的统计决策方法,力图把经验性的地震决策引向定量化的地震决策,减少在实际工作中的决策失误。文中用已发生过的地震的资料进行检验,说明该方法的可用性。     

灌木植被分布区阻力特性理论及试验研究

为探明河道灌木植被分布区阻水规律，对灌木植被主干、分枝产生的水流阻力特性及其定量特征进行研究。提出原型植被体积修正系数和灌木植被水力半径确定方法，理论推导灌木植被阻力系数计算公式，并结合水槽试验建立植被阻力系数与植被水力半径为特征长度的植被雷诺数之间的关系式。研究结果表明：引入原型植被体积修正系数和灌木植被水力半径使灌木植被阻力计算更为准确；植被阻力系数与植被雷诺数之间呈指数函数关系，随植被雷诺数的增加呈单调减小的趋势，与水槽试验结果吻合很好。     

Stability analysis of seismic slopes with cracks

Earthquakes can trigger slope instability, especially in the case of slopes with cracks. Studies of slope stability rarely account for the presence of cracks. In this study, the upper bound limit analysis technique and the pseudo-static method were used to examine the stability of homogeneous slopes with cracks subjected to seismic loading. A series of stability charts for slope inclinations of 2:1 (β = 63.4°), 1:1 (β = 45°), 2:3 (β = 33.7°), and 1:2 (β = 26.6°) (vertical to horizontal) and internal friction angles, φ, of 10°, 20°, 30°, and 40° are presented. These charts should be useful for readily determining the stability number (critical slope height), the critical crack depth, and the region affected by cracks for cracks of known depth but unknown location, cracks of known location but unspecified depth, and cracks of unspecified depth and location.     

Numerical investigation of wave elevation and bottom pressure generated by a planing hull in finite-depth water

A numerical investigation of the bottom pressure and wave elevation generated by a planing hull in finite-depth water is presented. While the existing literature addresses the free-surface deformation and pressure field at the seafloor independently, this work proposes a direct comparison between the two hydrodynamic quantities. The dependence of the pressure disturbances at the ocean floor from the waves generated at the free-surface by a planing hull is studied for several values of both the depth and hull Froude numbers. The methodology employed is Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH), a numerical technique based on the discretization of the continuum fields of hydrodynamics through mesh-less particles. The SPH code herein chosen is initially validated against experimental data for transom-stern flow. Subsequently, numerical simulations are presented for a planing hull in high-speed regimes. The results show a direct correlation between surface wave dynamics and hydrodynamic pressure disturbances at the seafloor as the value of the Froude number is varied. This is assessed by studying the inverse dependence of the low-pressure wake angle with the Froude number and by comparison of SPH results with similar works in the cited literature.     

Changes in life cycle of the Ponto‐Caspian amphipod Pontogammarus robustoides at in the northernmost part of its range

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamics of abundance, population structure and reproductive variables of the invasive Ponto‐Caspian amphipod Pontogammarus robustoides in its northernmost population, located in the Baltic Sea. Pontogammarus robustoides population variables were studied every month from May to October over 7 years (2002–2008) at two locations in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, one site in the north and one in the south. Observations of macrozoobenthos were also conducted once per year in July at 12 sites in this gulf during 2002–2014. This was to monitor the distribution area of P. robustoides and its abundance/biomass in different parts of the Gulf. The results showed that P. robustoides is a widely spread species in the Gulf, preferring to colonize stone‐sandy, vegetated and littoral habitats, from the shore to a depth of 5 m, with water salinity of 0.2–3 ppt. This species co‐exists with other amphipods, such as the Baikalian Gmelinoides fasciatus, the North Atlantic Gammarus tigrinus and the native Gammarus spp. The abundance of P. robustoides varied between the two study sites and among years (2002–2008), reaching a maximum level of 1000 ind.·m^?2 for adults and 3000 ind.·m^?2 for juveniles. The temperature‐dependent duration of egg development (embryogenesis) in the amphipod and the annual number of generations in P. robustoides populations varied among years. Three generations were recorded in most years and two generations in the coldest years. Clutch size (or fecundity) was dependent on the body length of female and averaged between 33 and 43 eggs per clutch for females ranging in body length from 11.2 to 12.2 mm. A maximum of 75 eggs were observed in a female with a body length of 16 mm. This paper concludes that life‐cycle variables change when P. robustoides spreads from the southern (Ponto‐Caspian region) to northern (Baltic Sea) range areas. In the studied northernmost location, the fecundity and number of generations of this amphipod were 1.5–2‐fold lower compared with the more southern locations. In addition, these variables and P. robustoides abundance were different between the coldest and warmest years at study sites that testify about their distinct dependence on local environmental conditions; further changes in life cycle of this species may be expected together with current climate warming.     

一种概率分布的区间数多指标灰色关联模型

针对区间数多指标决策问题中评价值的取值概率问题,提出了基于概率分布的区间数多指标灰色关联模型。该模型将区间数距离映射到概率分布函数上,根据灰色关联分析方法的基本思想,计算决策方案与理想方案之间的关联度,通过关联度对决策方案进行排序。最后给出了两个实例分析,验证了该模型计算结果的正确性与有效性。     

风浪状态对海面拖曳系数的影响

通过对四种参数化方法的比较,认为风海雷诺数RB较风速、波龄和波陡能更好地描述拖曳系数CDN。利用分组平均法对CDN与RB关系进行处理,得到最佳的CDN参数化方案。利用COARE3算法测试了四种依赖海况的粗糙长度,与实测结果进行了比较,结果表明CDN与RB的关系式更真实地反映了海-气界面动量交换过程。     

多向随机波浪的方向谱分析

针对由多点波面资料进行方向谱分析过程中发现的问题，利用数值模拟的方法研究了互谱分析中光滑点数，光滑次数，采样长度，采样间隔，波浪入射方向，波浪的多向性等因素对方向谱分析结果的影响，得出一些有意义的结论。     

Stone mobility and longshore transport at reshaping breakwaters

Physical model tests have been performed in two different wave flumes to analyse the threshold of stone movement and quantify the frequency and length of displacements due to head-on wave attacks at a reshaping breakwater. Data on stone movements were obtained from the observation of cumulative displacements at the end of each wave attack and from video records during the attack. Threshold conditions, frequency of movement and displacement length are expressed as function of a suitably modified stability number.A simple model is defined relating longshore transport due to oblique wave attack to stone mobility. The transport model is based on the assumption that movement statistics is affected by obliquity only through the appropriate mobility index and that stones move during up- and down-rush in the direction of incident and reflected waves. Without any calibration, results compare favourably with experimental data available in literature in the range of low mobility conditions where movement statistics was observed. A calibration is provided in order to obtain an accurate transport formula valid in a wide mobility range i.e. for reshaping breakwaters and up to gravel beaches.     

Effect of Band Width on Fatigue Life under Random Stress Response

A fatigue life estimation method for offshore structures under random stress response is studied in this paper. The method of broad band cumulative frequency number is used to determine the effect of band width of stress frequency spectra on fatigue. A formula of correction factor for fatigue under broad band stress spectra is suggested and compared with that given by P. H. Wirsching.